Earthquake weather and climate change: Should we stress about the forecast?

ABSTRACT Relationships between the weather and earthquakes have been suspected for over 2400 yr. However, scientific evidence to support such relationships has grown only since the 1980s. Because faults in Earth’s crust are generally regarded as critically stressed, small changes in stress and pore-fluid pressure brought about by rainfall, snow, and atmospheric pressure and temperature variations have all been proposed to modulate seismicity at local and regional scales. Elastic static stress changes as low as 0.07 kPa and pore-fluid pressure changes as low as 0.5 kPa have been proposed to naturally trigger earthquakes. In the UK, the spatial distributions of onshore earthquakes and rainfall are highly nonuniform and may be related; the wetter and most naturally seismically active areas occur on the west side of the country. We found significant spatial and temporal relationships between rainfall amount and the number of earthquakes for 1980–2012, suggesting larger volumes of rainfall promote earthquake nucleation. Such relationships occur when human-induced seismicity is included or excluded, indicating that meteorological conditions can also modulate seismicity induced by subsurface anthropogenic activities such as coal mining. No significant relationships were observed for monthly time lags, suggesting that the triggering effect of rainfall in the UK is near-instantaneous or occurs within 1 mo. With global climate changing rapidly and extreme weather events occurring more frequently, it is possible that some global regions may also experience changes in the spatial and temporal occurrence of earthquakes in response to changes in meteorologically induced stress perturbations.

Modelling eruptive event sources in distributed volcanic fields

Vent opening hazard models are routinely used as inputs for assessing distal volcanic hazards (lava flows, tephra fallout) in distributed volcanic fields. These vent opening hazard models have traditionally relied on the location of mapped vents; seldom have they taken into account how vents are linked in space and time. We show that inputs needed to appropriately model distal hazards are fundamentally different than thoses required to model near-vent hazards (ground deformation). We provide a computational model to obtain more appropriate eruptive source parameters (ESPs) for distal volcanic hazard sources and show the utility of our code through three examples. The code's strength is that it links events based on the spatio-temporal relationships of vents through heirarchical clustering. The development of the code and its strenghts and weaknesses are discussed. This work challenges previous ideas about ESPs and we hope this work leads to further improvement in hazard assessment methods.

Factors contributory to fire occurrences in two populated areas in the American southwest

PurposeThis study aims to further understand the factors contributory to fire occurrences in two semi-arid regions in the American Southwest, Clark County in Nevada and Maricopa and Pinal Counties in Arizona.Design/methodology/approachStatistical and geographic information system analyses were employed to examine the spatial and temporal relationships of various natural and human-caused factors with fire incidences.FindingsAngström fire danger index, average amount of rainfall one month prior, extent of forests and grasslands, and proximities to secondary roads and population centers have significant relationships with fire events.Research limitations/implicationsThe importance of the factors contributory to fire occurrence is site-specific even in areas with similar climatic regimes and varies among different geographic regions; as such, researchers will need to conduct specific investigation of each study area.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study can be instrumental in facilitating fire managers to derive more informed strategies in fire prevention and management.Originality/valueWhile there are many studies on fire, most of them are conducted in wet regions with a lot of vegetative cover; not much work is done on arid areas. This paper considered and compared the spatial and temporal relationships of a wide range of natural and human-caused factors with fire events in two semi-arid areas. The intent was to assess the relative importance of these factors in areas even with similar climatic regimes. As our world is facing unprecedented changes in terms of climate and population growth, it is paramount to have an enhanced understanding of the impacts of these changes on fire regimes. The study areas are hot and dry, and they are located in the wildland–urban interfaces with rapid population growth and urbanization; as such, the research findings may contribute to existing literature.

A Self-Attention Augmented Graph Convolutional Clustering Networks for Skeleton-Based Video Anomaly Behavior Detection

In this paper, we propose a new method for detecting abnormal human behavior based on skeleton features using self-attention augment graph convolution. The skeleton data have been proved to be robust to the complex background, illumination changes, and dynamic camera scenes and are naturally constructed as a graph in non-Euclidean space. Particularly, the establishment of spatial temporal graph convolutional networks (ST-GCN) can effectively learn the spatio-temporal relationships of Non-Euclidean Structure Data. However, it only operates on local neighborhood nodes and thereby lacks global information. We propose a novel spatial temporal self-attention augmented graph convolutional networks (SAA-Graph) by combining improved spatial graph convolution operator with a modified transformer self-attention operator to capture both local and global information of the joints. The spatial self-attention augmented module is used to understand the intra-frame relationships between human body parts. As far as we know, we are the first group to utilize self-attention for video anomaly detection tasks by enhancing spatial temporal graph convolution. Moreover, to validate the proposed model, we performed extensive experiments on two large-scale publicly standard datasets (i.e., ShanghaiTech Campus and CUHK Avenue datasets) which reveal the state-of-art performance for our proposed approach when compared to existing skeleton-based methods and graph convolution methods.

Concrete Abstract: Exploring Tactility in Abstract Animations from Early Avant-garde Films to Contemporary Artworks

After witnessing social chaos and the collapse of values at the beginning of the twentieth century, avant-garde artists insert new thought patterns and progressive aesthetic into the traditional perception of art. Being enthralled by the new film medium, former painters like Viking Eggeling, Walther Ruttman and Hans Richter start to experiment with light in two-dimensional film formats, they animate lines, stripes, basic shapes, play with the foreground and the background, and, most important of all, they construct a temporality within the visual order of the screen. Viking Eggeling’s Symphonie Diagonale (1921-24), Walther Ruttman’s Opus I (1921) and Hans Richter’s Rhythmus 21 (1921) show such temporality built in, which is caught by the idea of music as their titles suggest. These short abstract animation films attempt to discover the artistic possibilities of the new developing medium, film. Like the pioneer avant-garde abstract filmmakers, today’s artists still seek to stimulate a new perception for a possible embodiment that will activate the sense of touch in the audience. Tactility, enhanced by the material, opens up a new network of spatio-temporal relationships in the viewer's consciousness and subjecthood. This essay aims to bring a historical perspective to the abstract moving images of which the tactile or haptic experience is a defining characteristic. Through a selection of abstract animations, the materiality of the film image and the screening site will be elaborated upon according to the haptic features that are corporally embodied by the viewers. In the light of historical abstract animation, the aim is to dwell upon the dynamics of a continuous tendency to capture tactile instances to help bring forth the spatial resonances as well as visualize and reedify the rhythmic passing of time.

Extracting temporal relationships between weakly coupled peptidergic and motoneuronal signaling: Application to Drosophila ecdysis behavior

Neuromodulators, such as neuropeptides, can regulate and reconfigure neural circuits to alter their output, affecting in this way animal physiology and behavior. The interplay between the activity of neuronal circuits, their modulation by neuropeptides, and the resulting behavior, is still poorly understood. Here, we present a quantitative framework to study the relationships between the temporal pattern of activity of peptidergic neurons and of motoneurons during Drosophila ecdysis behavior, a highly stereotyped motor sequence that is critical for insect growth. We analyzed, in the time and frequency domains, simultaneous intracellular calcium recordings of peptidergic CCAP (crustacean cardioactive peptide) neurons and motoneurons obtained from isolated central nervous systems throughout fictive ecdysis behavior induced ex vivo by Ecdysis triggering hormone. We found that the activity of both neuronal populations is tightly coupled in a cross-frequency manner, suggesting that CCAP neurons modulate the frequency of motoneuron firing. To explore this idea further, we used a probabilistic logistic model to show that calcium dynamics in CCAP neurons can predict the oscillation of motoneurons, both in a simple model and in a conductance-base model capable of simulating many features of the observed neural dynamics. Finally, we developed an algorithm to quantify the motor behavior observed in videos of pupal ecdysis, and compared their features to the patterns of neuronal calcium activity recorded ex vivo. We found that the motor activity of the intact animal is more regular than the motoneuronal activity recorded from ex vivo preparations during fictive ecdysis behavior; the analysis of the patterns of movement also allowed us to identify a new post-ecdysis phase.

Elastic Rhythm in Signal-Synchronised Sequencing Objects for Pure Data

This paper presents a family of objects for manipulating polyrhythmic sequences and isorhythmic relationships, in both the signal and event domains. These work together and are tightly synchronised to an audio phase signal, so that relative temporal relationships can be tempo-manipulated in a linear fashion. Many permutations of polyrhythmic sequences including incomplete tuplets, scrambled elements, interleaved tuplets and any complex franctional relation can be realised. Similarly, these many be driven with controllable isorhythmic generators derived from a single driver, so that sequences of different fractionally related lengths may be combined and synchronised. It is possible to use signals to drive audio playback that are directly generated, so that disparate sound files may be combined into sequences. A set of sequenced parameters are included to facilitate this process.