The Rewards for Meeting or Beating Managers' Own Earnings Guidance

This study documents a stock return premium for meeting or beating management's own earnings guidance (MBMG) that is separate and distinct from the premium for meeting or beating analysts' earnings forecasts (MBAF) documented in prior literature. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that the MBMG premium relative to the MBAF premium increases when management guidance is more informative. We also find that MBMG is incrementally informative about a firm's future performance after considering MBAF. Our findings suggest that investors consider management earnings guidance to be a performance threshold in addition to analyst earnings forecasts when forming earnings expectations.

Investors' Responses to Reported Earnings when Management Issues Goal versus Expectation Earnings Guidance: An Experimental Investigation

We investigate whether nonprofessional investors' responses to a company's reported earnings differ when management earnings guidance is presented as a goal or an expectation. We present 64 M.B.A. students and 262 MTurk participants with earnings guidance, manipulating between subjects whether management provides the guidance as a “goal” or an “expectation” and whether the company's reported earnings fall short or exceed investors' expectations as derived from management's earnings guidance. Our experimental results suggest that if earnings guidance is issued as a goal rather than as an expectation, investors respond less negatively when earnings fall short of investors' expectations, but not less positively when earnings exceed investors' expectations. Mediation analysis supports the interpretation that earnings falling short of investors' expectations leads investors to perceive managers as less competent and to be more disappointed when managers issue expectation rather than goal guidance, which in turn influences investors' attractiveness judgments of the company.