Insights into the poroelastic mechanical behaviour of a crystalline magma reservoir and its influence on modelling volcano surface deformation

<p><span xml:lang="EN-US"><span>Understanding the physical properties of magma reservoirs and their fluid/mechanical behaviour is crucial for improving geophysical models. New evidence suggests that large bodies of magma are difficult to maintain for an extended time period and that melts may instead reside within crystal-</span><span>mush</span><span> reservoirs which consist of variably packed frameworks of crystals and interstitial melt. Most existing volcano deformation models assume a pressurized cavity embedded in a homogeneous or heterogenous elastic half-space and therefore ignore the presence of crystals and the possible poroelastic mechanical response to melt intrusion or withdrawal. Here, we consider the magma reservoir to be entirely porous, comprising melt distributed between solid crystals. We investigate the influence of poroelastic mechanical behaviour on reservoir pressure development and resultant </span></span><span xml:lang="EN-US"><span>spatio</span></span><span xml:lang="EN-US"><span>-temporal surface deformation. We examine the post-intrusion and post-eruption time-dependent pressure evolution in the magma reservoir due to melt diffusion in the porous domain. Unlike the classic (cavity) models for volcanic surface deformation, an observable post-eruptive or post-intrusion time-dependent inflation can occur without an additional mass change if the reservoir is sufficiently permeable. Post-intrusion and post-eruption timescales vary depending on the porosity of the </span><span>mush</span><span> (melt fraction), permeability and magma viscosity. Our study confirms that reservoir inflation and surface deformation can occur without an intrusion or withdrawal of melt but are instead controlled by the </span><span>mush</span><span>'s poroelastic behaviour</span></span><span xml:lang="EN-US"><span>.</span></span><span xml:lang="EN-US"><span> </span></span></p><p> </p>

CO2 favours the accumulation of excess fluids in felsic magmas

<p>Volcano deformation and gas emissions provide insights into subsurface magmatic systems. Large discrepancies are observed between the volumes calculated from deformation data, mass of emitted gases, and volumes of erupted magmas. Such discrepancies hinder our capacity to predict the magnitude and intensity of imminent eruptions and are ascribed to the amount of excess fluids stored in magma reservoirs. High-pressure (1240 bar) and high-temperature (1200 °C) hot isostatic press experiments show that the amount of trapped excess fluids in haplogranitic magmas with variable crystal contents (30, 50, 60, and 70 vol.%) depends strongly on fluid composition. Magmas with CO<sub>2</sub> excess fluids become permeable at much larger porosities (44% higher) with respect to the H<sub>2</sub>O-rich counterparts at equivalent crystallinity. Available excess gas geochemistry data calculated from volatile-saturated melt inclusion record, syn-eruptive SO<sub>2</sub> emission, and erupted juvenile porosity data collected for crystal-rich andesite and crystal-poor dacite/rhyolite volcanoes with known eruption magnitude and intensity (Mt St Helens 1980, Pinatubo 1991, Soufrière Hills 1996, and Merapi 2010) reveal that the discrepancy between erupted magma volume and SO<sub>2</sub> released during the eruption increases with CO<sub>2</sub> excess in magmas. In agreement with our experiments, these data highlight that CO<sub>2</sub>-rich fluids enhance magma’s capacity to store excess volatiles and shed light on the largest discrepancies between pre-eruptive deformation, gas emissions, and eruption intensity and magnitude.</p>

2003-2005 intra-eruptive deformation at Soufrière Hills Volcano (Montserrat) modulated by volcano-tectonics and weak crustal rocks

<p>Identifying driving mechanisms behind volcano deformation is one the key challenges of volcanology. Many geodetic models rely on simplified assumptions on source shape and the mechanical behaviour of surrounding rocks. However, geochemical, petrological and geophysical data illustrate complex architectures of sub-volcanic plumbing systems and crustal rocks. Mechanical heterogeneities fundamentally influence the stress vs. strain relationship and therefore require detailed analysis beyond the isotropic, homogenous, and elastic (IHE) half-space approximation embodied in traditional models.  <br>Here, we invert intra-eruptive ground displacements recorded between 2003-2005 on Montserrat to shed light on the magmatic plumbing system of Soufrière Hills Volcano.  Incorporating 3-dimensional crustal mechanical and topographic data in a finite-element model we show that the recorded displacements are best explained by a southeastward dipping (plunge angle of 9.3˚) vertically extended tri-axial ellipsoidal pressure source with semi-axis lengths of 1.9 and 2.0 km horizontally, and 5.0 km vertically.  The source is centred at 9.35 km depth below main sea level and embedded in independently imaged anomalously weak crustal rocks.  The source orientation appears to be controlled by the local stress field at the intersection of two major WNW-ESE and NW-SE striking tectonic lineaments. We derive an average volumetric strain rate of 8.4 x10<sup>-12</sup> s<sup>-1</sup> by transcrustal pressurisation which may have contributed to flank instability and mass wasting events in the southern and eastern sectors of the island.</p>

Baseline monitoring of volcanic regions with little recent activity: application of Sentinel-1 InSAR to Turkish volcanoes

Volcanoes have dormancy periods that may last decades to centuries meaning that eruptions at volcanoes with no historical records of eruptions are common. Baseline monitoring to detect the early stages of reawakening is therefore important even in regions with little recent volcanic activity. Satellite techniques, such as InSAR, are ideally suited for routinely surveying large and inaccessible regions, but the large datasets typically require expert interpretation. Here we focus on Turkey where there are 10 Holocene volcanic systems, but no eruptions since 1855 and consequently little ground-based monitoring. We analyse data from the first five years of the European Space Agency Sentinel-1 mission which collects data over Turkey every 6 days on both ascending and descending passes. The high relief edifices of Turkey’s volcanoes cause two challenges: 1) snow cover during the winter months causes a loss of coherence and 2) topographically-correlated atmospheric artefacts could be misinterpreted as deformation. We propose mitigation strategies for both. The raw time series at Hasan Dag volcano shows uplift of ~ 10 cm between September 2017 and July 2018, but atmospheric corrections based on global weather models demonstrate that this is an artefact and reduce the scatter in the data to < 1 cm. We develop two image classification schemes for dealing with the large datasets: one is an easy to follow flowchart designed for non-specialist monitoring staff, and the other is an automated flagging system using a deep learning approach. We apply the deep learning scheme to a dataset of ~ 5000 images over the 10 Turkish volcanoes and find 4 possible signals, all of which are false positives. We conclude that there has been no cm-scale volcano deformation in Turkey in 2015–2020, but further analysis would be required to rule out slower rates of deformation (< 1 cm/yr). This study has demonstrated that InSAR techniques can be used for baseline monitoring in regions with few historical eruptions or little reported deformation.

Time-Scales of Inter-Eruptive Volcano Uplift Signals: Three Sisters Volcanic Center, Oregon (United States)

A classical inflation-eruption-deflation cycle of a volcano is useful to conceptualize the time-evolving deformation of volcanic systems. Such a model predicts accelerated uplift during pre-eruptive periods, followed by subsidence during the co-eruptive stage. Some volcanoes show puzzling persistent uplift signals with minor or no other geophysical or geochemical variations, which are difficult to interpret. Such temporal behaviors are usually observed in large calderas (e.g., Yellowstone, Long Valley, Campi Flegrei, Rabaul), but less commonly for stratovolcanoes. Volcano deformation needs to be better understood during inter-eruptive stages, to assess its value as a tool for forecasting eruptions and to understand the processes governing the unrest behavior. Here, we analyze inter-eruptive uplift signals at Three Sisters, a complex stratovolcano in Oregon (United States), which in recent decades shows persistent inter-eruptive uplift signals without associated eruptive activity. Using a Bayesian inversion method, we re-assessed the source characteristics (magmatic system geometry and location) and its uncertainties. Furthermore, we evaluate the most recent evolution of the surface deformation signals combining both GPS and InSAR data through a new non-subjective linear regularization inversion procedure to estimate the 26 years-long time-series. Our results constrain the onset of the Three Sisters volcano inflation to be between October 1998 and August 1999. In the absence of new magmatic inputs, we estimate a continuous uplift signal, at diminishing but detectable rates, to last for few decades. The observed uplift decay observed at Three Sisters is consistent with a viscoelastic response of the crust, with viscosity of ∼1018 Pa s around a magmatic source with a pressure change which increases in finite time to a constant value. Finally, we compare Three Sisters volcano time series with historical uplift at different volcanic systems. Proper modeling of scaled inflation time series indicates a unique and well-defined exponential decay in temporal behavior. Such evidence supports that this common temporal evolution of uplift rates could be a potential indicator of a rather reduced set of physical processes behind inter-eruptive uplift signals.

Viscoelastic crustal deformation in the Aira caldera before and after the 1914 eruption of the Sakurajima volcano

&lt;p&gt; Long-term volcano deformation cannot be well understood without considering crustal viscoelasticity because the presence of magma is expected to significantly lower the crustal viscosity beneath volcanoes. In this study, we examine viscoelastic crustal response to continuous magma supply into the upper crust and its sudden discharge. We use a three-dimensional (3-D) finite element model composed of an elastic layer underlain by a linear Maxwell viscoelastic layer with spatially uniform viscosity, in which a sill emplaced at the bottom of the elastic layer inflates with constant rate, during which the deflation due to an eruption suddenly occurs. Our numerical experiment finds that viscoelastic response to the sill deflation causes post-eruption surface uplift, depending on how much viscoelastic relaxation progresses in response to sill inflation due to pre-eruption magma supply and how much the sill deflates during the eruption. However, the recovery of the post-eruption surface is always later than that of the sill volume, because the viscoelastic response to the sill inflation reduces the surface uplift. Magma recharge is required to bring the surface to the elevation that was at immediately before the eruption. We adopt our viscoelastic model to geodetic data in and around the Aira caldera, southern Kyushu, Japan. It is found that the observed exponential-like surface recovery after the 1914 eruption can be explained if: (1) The effective crustal viscosity is &amp;#8764;5&amp;#215;10&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt; Pa s, (2) the sill emplacement, whose equatorial radius is &amp;#8764;2 km, occurs at a depth of &amp;#8764;11 km, (3) a constant inflation rate of the sill is &amp;#8764;0.009 km&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;/yr, which has continued since &amp;#8764;50 yr before the 1914 eruption, and (4) the sill deflates by &amp;#8764;0.4 km&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; during the 1914 eruption, &amp;#8764;4 times less than the eruptive volume. The sill inflation during the first &amp;#8764;50 yr after the eruption is lower than that predicted by an elastic model, but larger thereafter. Fit to geodetic data after &amp;#8764;1975 can be improved by introducing temporal variation of the inflation rate, which is a topic of investigation for a future study.&lt;/p&gt;