Features of the vector autoregression models application in macroeconomic research

In this paper, we analyzed articles by foreign authors that use various vector autoregression models to calculate the impact of qualitative indicators on the economic processes of countries or a group of countries. In particular, the article analyzed the classical model of vector autoregression (VAR), panel model of autoregressive (PVAR), Bayesian model of autoregressive (BVAR), structural model of autoregressive (SVAR), and the global model of autoregressive (GVAR). Among the works using vector autoregressive models, the main emphasis is on financial indicators. Moreover, articles with non-trivial variables are rare. This is because financial macroeconomic variables in most cases have a direct impact on economic processes in the country. The analysis of financial indicators and the results obtained can play a significant role in the development of economic strategies in different states, since the results obtained with the help of vector autoregression models are usually quite accurate. The studied articles analyze the data of both developed and developing states or groups of states in different periods. The studied articles were classified according to several criteria, which were selected by the author to structure the work. Note that among the works using vector autoregressive models, the main emphasis is on financial indicators. Moreover, articles with non-trivial variables are rare. This is since financial macroeconomic variables in most cases have a direct impact on economic processes in the country. The analysis of financial indicators and the results obtained can play a significant role in the development of economic strategies in different states, since the results obtained with the help of vector autoregression models are usually quite accurate. In the conclusion of this study, the author presented conclusions based on the analysis of autoregressive models.

Autoregression models of large space debris motion

A statistical method was developed for modeling the large space debris motion in the class of autoregressive models. The method improves the quality of description and forecasting of the movement of large fragments of space debris based on their TLE elements.

Exploiting Heterogeneous Parallelism on Hybrid Metaheuristics for Vector Autoregression Models

In the last years, the huge amount of data available in many disciplines makes the mathematical modeling, and, more concretely, econometric models, a very important technique to explain those data. One of the most used of those econometric techniques is the Vector Autoregression Models (VAR) which are multi-equation models that linearly describe the interactions and behavior of a group of variables by using their past. Traditionally, Ordinary Least Squares and Maximum likelihood estimators have been used in the estimation of VAR models. These techniques are consistent and asymptotically efficient under ideal conditions of the data and the identification problem. Otherwise, these techniques would yield inconsistent parameter estimations. This paper considers the estimation of a VAR model by minimizing the difference between the dependent variables in a certain time, and the expression of their own past and the exogenous variables of the model (in this case denoted as VARX model). The solution of this optimization problem is approached through hybrid metaheuristics. The high computational cost due to the huge amount of data makes it necessary to exploit High-Performance Computing for the acceleration of methods to obtain the models. The parameterized, parallel implementation of the metaheuristics and the matrix formulation ease the simultaneous exploitation of parallelism for groups of hybrid metaheuristics. Multilevel and heterogeneous parallelism are exploited in multicore CPU plus multiGPU nodes, with the optimum combination of the different parallelism parameters depending on the particular metaheuristic and the problem it is applied to.