The Dynamic Influence of High-Speed Rail on the Spatial Structure of Economic Networks and the Underlying Mechanisms in Northeastern China

Drawing on 185 cities in the northeastern region of China, this paper improves the radiation model by incorporating the accessibility index to characterize the asymmetric process of economic linkages before HSR in 2007 and after HSR in 2016. Then social network analysis is utilized to examine the impact of HSR on the spatial structure of economic networks, including nodal centrality and community structures. Finally, spatial econometric models are employed to explore the driving factors of nodal centrality in economic networks and some policy implications are proposed. The major findings of this paper are the following. First, HSR services can weaken the core-peripheral inequality of economic linkages and a corridor economy is evident in northeastern China. Second, HSR services have significantly improved the out-degree centrality of prefecture-level cities but have slightly decreased the in-degree centrality of Liaoning. Third, there was a slight decline of coherence in the economic network after the construction of HSR and the within-modular connections were strengthened by HSR. Four, the spatial error model (SEM) is more desirable for explaining the distribution of in-degree centrality. GDP, fixed asset investment, education, population, and fiscal expenditure are important contributors to the in-degree centrality in economic networks. These findings give significant insights into city system planning, integrated transport and land use development, formulating regional poles and the coordinated development across administrative boundaries in northeastern China.

India’s Grand Strategy in East Asia in the Era of COVID-19

Since the election of Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government in May 2014, India’s approach to East Asia has changed, principally in response to pressures exerted by China. The Modi government inherited an East Asia strategy that combined a push for greater diplomatic and economic linkages with the region, an effort to improve Sino-Indian relations through a mix of engagement and deterrence, and a strengthening of security ties with the United States (US) and its allies. During its first three years in office, this paper argues that the Modi government stuck with this approach but attempted to pursue it more energetically as well as to assert India’s interests more clearly and forcefully in interactions with Beijing. After the Doklam standoff in 2017, however, India was pushed to assume a more clearly competitive stance, despite concerns about the reliability of Donald J. Trump’s new administration in Washington, China’s growing belligerence towards India and the rest of the region, and the impact of COVID-19. This stance entails both internal and external balancing, and a push for greater economic self-reliance that implies some decoupling from China, but which also has implications for India’s relations with other countries in East Asia.

Wavelet-based analysis of guar futures in India: did we kill the golden goose?

PurposeGuar Gum (GG) is used in Shale oil exploration. Excessive price increase in the Guar futures market had a spillover impact on Guar spot prices and affected Guar export from India as Shale oil producers started exploring alternate sources. In this paper, the role of excessive speculation in the futures market, and its adverse impact on the guar-based agri-business ecosystem have been empirically explored.Design/methodology/approachVolatility spillover dynamics between WTI crude oil and Guar futures have been explored using bivariate-Granger Causality, BEKK–GARCH models with Wavelet multi-resolution analysis. The wavelet-based models capture the multi-scale features of mean and volatility spillover to identify the effect of heterogenous investment behavior in the time and frequency domain.FindingsThe results provide evidence that excessive speculation in futures markets increases spot market volatility. The results also suggest that the excess presence of short-term investors can destabilize the futures market.Research limitations/implicationsThe purpose of the commodity futures market is to support price discovery and risk management. However, speculative practices can destabilize these purposes leading to the failure of the business ecosystem.Originality/valueThe novelty of this paper is twofold. First, it explores the economic linkages between the spot and futures market and tests whether the presence of heterogeneous traders affects the economic linkages. Second, it models the impact of short-term speculative investment on the destabilization of the spot market.