Testing the binomial fixed effects logit model, with an application to female labour supply

Regression models for proportions are frequently encountered in applied work. The conditional expectation function is bounded between 0 and 1 and therefore must be nonlinear, requiring nonstandard panel data extensions. One possible approach is the binomial panel logit model with fixed effects (Machado in J Econom 119:73–98, 2004). We propose a new and simple implementation of this conditional maximum likelihood estimator for standard software. We investigate the properties of the estimator under misspecification and derive a new test for overdispersion. Estimator and test are applied in a study of contracted working volumes, measured as proportion of full-time work, for women in Switzerland.

Child-Related Transfers, Household Labour Supply, and Welfare

What are the macroeconomic effects of transfers to households with children? How do alternative policies fare in welfare terms? We answer these questions in an equilibrium life-cycle model with household labour supply decisions, skill losses of females associated to non-participation, and heterogeneity in terms of fertility, childcare expenditures, and access to informal care. Calibrating our model to the U.S. economy, we first provide a roadmap for policy evaluation by contrasting transfers that are conditional on market work (childcare subsidies and childcare credits) with those that are not (child credits), when both types can be means tested or universal. We then evaluate expansions of current arrangements for the U.S. and find that expansions of conditional transfers have substantial positive effects on female labour supply, that are largest at the bottom of the skill distribution. Expanding childcare credits leads to long-run increases in the participation of married females of 10.6%, while an equivalent expansion of child credits leads to the opposite ($-$2.4%). Expanding existing programs generates substantial welfare gains for newborn households, which are largest for less-skilled households. Expanding childcare credits leads to the largest welfare gains for newborns and achieves majority support.

The “Family 500+” programme and female labour force participation in Poland. Demographic and economic determinants

The paper investigates the effect of child cash benefit “Family 500+” on the female labour supply in Poland, taking into account demographic and cyclical determinants. The study is based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and Polish Central Statistical Office quarterly data. The analyses cover the period of 2016–2018. The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is the measure of labour supply. The analysis uses a counterfactual method to determine the impact of demographic and behavioural changes on female labour supply. To identify the causes of the economic inactivity of women (adopted by LFS), decomposition of the growth rate of economically inactive women is applied. The effect of the business cycle on female labour supply is analysed using OLS recursive regression. The study found that the LFPR of women aged 25–44 decreased after 2015. This was related to the cash transfers under the “Family 500+” programme and the increasing number of economically inactive women by reason of “family and household responsibilities”. At the same time, changes in the demographic structure contributed positively to the LFPR of women aged 25–44, while the business cycle did not have a significant impact on it. OLS recursive regression showed that in the 25–44 age group, the introduction of “Family 500+” coincided with changes in the relationships between the LFPR, the percentage of the “discouraged”, economically inactive women by reason of “family responsibilities” and the unemployment rate.

The Effect of Regional Gender-Role Attitudes on Female Labour Supply: A Longitudinal Test Using the BHPS, 1991–2007

Despite considerable variation in gender-role attitudes across contexts and its claimed influence on female labour supply, studies provide little support for a contextual gender-role attitude effect. In this study, we reassess the contextual gender-role attitude effect on female labour supply because earlier studies are hampered by two shortcomings: (a) they are cross-nationally comparative, which makes it difficult to distinguish contextual attitude from institutional effects; (b) they are cross-sectional, which may bias the contextual attitude effect. We aim to overcome these shortcomings by performing longitudinal panel analyses on data from the British Household Panel Survey 1991–2007, comparing 138 counties within the United Kingdom. Our fixed-effects regressions report no significant and substantial association of regional, egalitarian gender-role attitudes with individual women’s labour supply, a finding which both holds for women’s probability to be active in the labour market and employed women’s working hours, and for women with and without (young) children. Female labour supply appears to be much stronger associated with women’s own and partners’ gender-role attitudes, in particular for women with (young) children.