Multi-Horizon Dependence between Crude Oil and East Asian Stock Markets and Implications in Risk Management

This paper examines the dynamic dependence structure of crude oil and East Asian stock markets at multiple frequencies using wavelet and copulas. We also investigate risk management implications and diversification benefits of oil-stock portfolios by calculating and comparing risk and tail risk hedging performance. Our results provide strong evidence of time-varying dependence and asymmetric tail dependence between crude oil and East Asian stock markets at different frequencies. The level and fluctuation of their dependencies increase as time scale increases. Furthermore, we find the time-varying hedging benefits differ at investment horizons and reduced over the long run. Our results suggest that crude oil could be used as a hedge and safe haven against East Asian stock markets, especially in the short- and mid-term.

Spillover Effects of Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative Easing on East Asian Economies

This chapter explores the spillover effects of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on East Asian economies. Under the new monetary policy regime, the Japanese yen depreciated substantially, raising concerns that it would have a regional beggar-thy-neighbour effect. It is thus important to see what effects the QQE had on neighbouring economies. Our empirical investigation of East Asian stock markets finds that they first reacted to the yen’s depreciation negatively, yet came to respond positively as the QQE progressed, implying that the QQE had a much smaller beggar-thy-neighbour effect than was originally feared. We show that the QQE benefited East Asian economies because the positive spillover effect of Japan’s stock market recovery dominated the beggar-thy-neighbour effect in the region.

Review of the Literatures on Stock Price Behavior of Malaysia

Stock price behavior is one of the core concerns of researchers and finance scholars from more than a half-century of years. Most of the times, they have tried to identify unexplored anomalies that could be used to explain stock price movement in the different stock market. As a result, we have found different models and theories relating to stock price behavior as well as the efficiency of the stock market. Malaysian stock market is considered the second among the largest South East Asian stock markets according to its domestic market capitalization. A considerable number of researches have already been done on the stock price behavior of Malaysian stock market. This study reviews the existing literatures on the stock price behavior of Malaysian stock markets within two wings, literatures on efficient market hypothesis of Malaysian market and the effect of economic and financial variables on the stock price.

CONTAGIOUS EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES ON ASIAN STOCK MARKETS’ BEHAVIOUR

The main objective of this study is to examine the stock markets’ shock due to the effect of the price of oil in the East Asia Region. Particularly, this study examines if there is stock market interdependence during global oil price shocks (sudden changes) for a sample of five total oil importers (the Philippines, Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan), four net oil importers (Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and China), and one net oil exporter (Malaysia) between 1999 and 2014. From the result, an oil price change is collectively found to have a small but significant positive impact on the stock markets, in particular where a sudden decrease in oil prices tends to cause a stock market downturn and volatility. The world economy’s spending, financial investments in oil futures and foreign investment by oil rich nations are some underlying motives for inducing this oil-stock positive relation. The same direction of time-varying conditional correlations is found across East Asian stock markets during negative oil price shocks. The integration among East Asian stock markets is inducing the oil shock contagion to be transmitted from direct oil-affected countries (South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore) to non-direct oil affected countries’ (Japan and Taiwan) stock markets. In spite of a long practiced ASEAN+3 macroeconomics surveillance process and Early Warning System (EWS) which can be customized for stock markets to prevent or detect the oil risk, hedging against initial oil-affected stock markets and a stronger influence by the East Asian countries in the global world of oil and capital investment are strongly suggested.Keywords: oil price; capital market integration; stock market behaviour