A Flexible Multivariate Distribution for Correlated Count Data

Multivariate count data are often modeled via a multivariate Poisson distribution, but it contains an underlying, constraining assumption of data equi-dispersion (where its variance equals its mean). Real data are oftentimes over-dispersed and, as such, consider various advancements of a negative binomial structure. While data over-dispersion is more prevalent than under-dispersion in real data, however, examples containing under-dispersed data are surfacing with greater frequency. Thus, there is a demonstrated need for a flexible model that can accommodate both data types. We develop a multivariate Conway–Maxwell–Poisson (MCMP) distribution to serve as a flexible alternative for correlated count data that contain data dispersion. This structure contains the multivariate Poisson, multivariate geometric, and the multivariate Bernoulli distributions as special cases, and serves as a bridge distribution across these three classical models to address other levels of over- or under-dispersion. In this work, we not only derive the distributional form and statistical properties of this model, but we further address parameter estimation, establish informative hypothesis tests to detect statistically significant data dispersion and aid in model parsimony, and illustrate the distribution’s flexibility through several simulated and real-world data examples. These examples demonstrate that the MCMP distribution performs on par with the multivariate negative binomial distribution for over-dispersed data, and proves particularly beneficial in effectively representing under-dispersed data. Thus, the MCMP distribution offers an effective, unifying framework for modeling over- or under-dispersed multivariate correlated count data that do not necessarily adhere to Poisson assumptions.

Extracting State Transition Dynamics from Multiple Spike Trains Using Hidden Markov Models with Correlated Poisson Distribution

Neural activity is nonstationary and varies across time. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been used to track the state transition among quasi-stationary discrete neural states. Within this context, an independent Poisson model has been used for the output distribution of HMMs; hence, the model is incapable of tracking the change in correlation without modulating the firing rate. To achieve this, we applied a multivariate Poisson distribution with correlation terms for the output distribution of HMMs. We formulated a variational Bayes (VB) inference for the model. The VB could automatically determine the appropriate number of hidden states and correlation types while avoiding the overlearning problem. We developed an efficient algorithm for computing posteriors using the recursive relationship of a multivariate Poisson distribution. We demonstrated the performance of our method on synthetic data and real spike trains recorded from a songbird.