A Statistical–Dynamical Downscaling for the Urban Heat Island and Building Energy Consumption—Analysis of Its Uncertainties

High-resolution maps of the urban heat island (UHI) and building energy consumption are relevant for urban planning in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation. A statistical–dynamical downscaling for these parameters is proposed in the present study. It combines a statistical local weather type approach with dynamical simulations using the mesoscale atmospheric model Meso-NH coupled to the urban canopy model Town Energy Balance. The downscaling is subject to uncertainties related to the weather type approach (statistical uncertainty) and to the numerical models (dynamical uncertainty). These uncertainties are quantified for two French cities (Toulouse and Dijon) for which long-term dense high-quality observations are available. The seasonal average nocturnal UHI intensity is simulated with less than 0.2 K bias for Dijon, but it is overestimated by up to 0.8 K for Toulouse. The sensitivity of the UHI intensity to weather type is, on average, captured by Meso-NH. The statistical uncertainty is as large as the dynamical uncertainty if only one day is simulated for each weather type. It can be considerably reduced if 3–6 days are taken instead. The UHI reduces the building energy consumption by 10% in the center of Toulouse; it should therefore be taken into account in the production of building energy consumption maps.