Using the Change Point Model (CPM) Framework to Identify Windows for Water Resource Management Action in the Lower Colorado River Basin of Texas, USA

In water-stressed river basins with growing urban populations, conflicts over water resources have emerged between urban and agricultural interests, as managerial interventions occur with little warning and tend to favor urban over agricultural water uses. This research documents changes in water use along an urban-to-agricultural gradient to examine whether it is possible to leverage temporal fluctuations in key quantitative data indicators to detect periods in which we could expect substantive managerial interventions in water resource management. We employ the change point model (CPM) framework to locate shifts in water use, climate-related indicators, lake and river characteristics, and agricultural trends across urban and agricultural counties in the lower Colorado River basin of Texas. Three distinctive groupings of change points appear. Increasing water use by urban counties and a shift in local climate conditions characterize the first period. Declines in agricultural counties’ water use and crop production define the second. Drops in lake levels, lower river discharge, and an extended drought mark the third. We interpret the results relative to documented managerial intervention events and show that managerial interventions occur during and after significant change points. We conclude that the CPM framework may be used to monitor the optimal timing of managerial interventions and their effects to avoid negative outcomes.

Winter Inputs Buffer Streamflow Sensitivity to Snowpack Losses in the Salt River Watershed in the Lower Colorado River Basin

Recent streamflow declines in the Upper Colorado River Basin raise concerns about the sensitivity of water supply for 40 million people to rising temperatures. Yet, other studies in western US river basins present a paradox: streamflow has not consistently declined with warming and snow loss. A potential explanation for this lack of consistency is warming-induced production of winter runoff when potential evaporative losses are low. This mechanism is more likely in basins at lower elevations or latitudes with relatively warm winter temperatures and intermittent snowpacks. We test whether this accounts for streamflow patterns in nine gaged basins of the Salt River and its tributaries, which is a sub-basin in the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB). We develop a basin-scale model that separates snow and rainfall inputs and simulates snow accumulation and melt using temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. Despite significant warming from 1968–2011 and snow loss in many of the basins, annual and seasonal streamflow did not decline. Between 25% and 50% of annual streamflow is generated in winter (NDJF) when runoff ratios are generally higher and potential evapotranspiration losses are one-third of potential losses in spring (MAMJ). Sub-annual streamflow responses to winter inputs were larger and more efficient than spring and summer responses and their frequencies and magnitudes increased in 1968–2011 compared to 1929–1967. In total, 75% of the largest winter events were associated with atmospheric rivers, which can produce large cool-season streamflow peaks. We conclude that temperature-induced snow loss in this LCRB sub-basin was moderated by enhanced winter hydrological inputs and streamflow production.

Developing the hydrological dependency structure between streamgage and reservoir networks

Reliable operation of physical infrastructures such as reservoirs, dikes, nuclear power plants positioned along a river network depends on monitoring riverine conditions and infrastructure interdependency with the river network, especially during hydrologic extremes. Developing this cascading interdependency between the riverine conditions and infrastructures for a large watershed is challenging, as conventional tools (e.g., watershed delineation) do not provide the relative topographic information on infrastructures along the river network. Here, we present a generic geo-processing tool that systematically combines three geospatial layers: topographic information from the National Hydrographic Dataset (NHDPlusV2), streamgages from the USGS National Water Information System, and reservoirs from the National Inventory of Dams, to develop the interdependency between reservoirs and streamgages along the river network for upper and lower Colorado River Basin (CRB) resulting in River and Infrastructure Connectivity Network (RICON) that shows the said interdependency as a concise edge list for the CRB. Another contribution of this study is an algorithm for developing the cascading interdependency between infrastructure and riverine networks to support their management and operation.