Do Mutual Fund Managers Time Market Sentiment?

This paper examines whether fund managers can adjust the exposure of portfolio to time market sentiment, thus expanding the new dimension of the study of mutual fund managers’ timing ability. Using the data of Chinese open-end equity funds from January 2010 to December 2019, based on the CICSI sentiment index developed by Yi and Mao (2009), we find strong evidence that Chinese mutual fund managers have sentiment ability during the sample period. In addition, the funds with positive sentiment timing ability outperforms those without such by 2.20% per year, and the longer the fund survives, the more likely for it to have sentiment timing ability. Our findings remain robust even after controlling the impact of bull and bear market on China’s A-share market in 2015, market timing, volatility timing and liquidity timing, and after using three new sentiment indicators to verify the finding, three indicators being the net buying amount of northward capital, the net buying amount of financing, and the net ratio of limit up.

An Analysis of Mutual Fund Managers’ Timing Abilities - Evidence From Chinese Equity Funds

This paper examines Chinese mutual fund managers’ market, volatility, and liquidity abilities. Using a daily frequency sample of Chinese open-end equity funds from 2015 to 2019, we find evidence that mutual fund managers can time the market. Among the funds with different investment styles, the active funds have better market and liquidity timing ability, whereas the steady funds have better volatility timing ability. In different investment periods, there are more funds with timing ability in the fall period than in the rise period. We find the same results in the market (T-M), volatility, and liquidity timing models. It is especially for the active funds, nearly half of which have liquidity timing ability in the fall period. Among the funds with stock selection ability, the funds with market timing ability can outperform than the funds with other timing ability.