On the assumptions behind metacognitive measurements: Implications for theory and practice

Theory of visual confidence has largely been grounded in the gaussian signal detection framework. This framework is so dominant that people could be rather ignorant of idiosyncratic consequences from this distributional assumption. By contrasting gaussian and logistic signal detection models, this paper systematically evaluates the consequences of auxiliary distributional assumptions in the measurement of metacognitive accuracy and its theoretical implications. We found that these models can lead to opposing conclusions regarding the efficiency of confidence rating relative to objective decision (whether meta-d’ is larger or smaller than d’) as well as the metacognitive efficiency along the internal evidence continuum (whether meta-d’ is larger or smaller for higher levels of confidence). These demonstrations may call for reconsideration of hitherto established theories of metacognition that are critically dependent on auxiliary modeling assumptions. We deem there is no instant solution for this matter as our quantitative model comparisons on a large dataset did not decide on a clear victor between gaussian and logistic metacognitive models. Yet, being aware of the hidden modeling assumptions and their systematic consequences would facilitate cumulative development of the science of metacognition.

Spatial Patterns of ‘Ōhi‘a Mortality Associated with Rapid ‘Ōhi‘a Death and Ungulate Presence

Effective forest management, particularly during forest disturbance events, requires timely and accurate monitoring information at appropriate spatial scales. In Hawai‘i, widespread ‘ōhi‘a (Metrosideros polymorpha Gaud.) mortality associated with introduced fungal pathogens affects forest stands across the archipelago, further impacting native ecosystems already under threat from invasive species. Here, we share results from an integrated monitoring program based on high resolution (<5 cm) aerial imagery, field sampling, and confirmatory laboratory testing to detect and monitor ‘ōhi‘a mortality at the individual tree level across four representative sites on Hawai‘i island. We developed a custom imaging system for helicopter operations to map thousands of hectares (ha) per flight, a more useful scale than the ten to hundreds of ha typically covered using small, unoccupied aerial systems. Based on collected imagery, we developed a rating system of canopy condition to identify ‘ōhi‘a trees suspected of infection by the fungal pathogens responsible for rapid ‘ōhi‘a death (ROD); we used this system to quickly generate and share suspect tree candidate locations with partner agencies to rapidly detect new mortality outbreaks and prioritize field sampling efforts. In three of the four sites, 98% of laboratory samples collected from suspect trees assigned a high confidence rating (n = 50) and 89% of those assigned a medium confidence rating (n = 117) returned positive detections for the fungal pathogens responsible for ROD. The fourth site, which has a history of unexplained ‘ōhi‘a mortality, exhibited much lower positive detection rates: only 6% of sampled trees assigned a high confidence rating (n = 16) and 0% of the sampled suspect trees assigned a medium confidence rating (n = 20) were found to be positive for the pathogen. The disparity in positive detection rates across study sites illustrates challenges to definitively determine the cause of ‘ōhi‘a mortality from aerial imagery alone. Spatial patterns of ROD-associated ‘ōhi‘a mortality were strongly affected by ungulate presence or absence as measured by the density of suspected ROD trees in fenced (i.e., ungulate-free) and unfenced (i.e., ungulate present) areas. Suspected ROD tree densities in neighboring areas containing ungulates were two to 69 times greater than those found in ungulate-free zones. In one study site, a fence line breach occurred during the study period, and feral ungulates entered an area that was previously ungulate-free. Following the breach, suspect ROD tree densities in this area rose from 0.02 to 2.78 suspect trees/ha, highlighting the need for ungulate control to protect ‘ōhi‘a stands from Ceratocystis-induced mortality and repeat monitoring to detect forest changes and resource threats.

Side- and similarity-biases during confidence conformity

Memory conformity may develop when people are confronted with distinct memories reported by others in social situations and knowingly/unknowingly adhere to these exogenous memories. Earlier research on memory conformity suggests that (1) subjects were more likely to conform to confederate with high confidence; (2) subjects with low confidence on their memory accuracy were more likely to conform, and; (3) this subjective confidence could be adjusted by social manipulations. Nonetheless, it remains unclear how the confidence levels of ours and others may interact and produce a combined effect on our degree of conformity. More importantly, is memory conformity, defined by a complete adoption of the opposite side, the result of a gradual accumulation of subtler changes at the confidence level, i.e., a buildup of confidence conformity? Here, we followed participant’s confidence transformation quantitatively over three confederate sessions in a memory test. After studying a set of human motion videos, participants had to answer simultaneously whether a target or lure video had appeared before by indicating their side (i.e., Yes/No) and their associated confidence rating. Participants were allowed to adjust their responses as they were being shown randomly-generated confederates’ answers and confidence values. Results show that participants indeed demonstrated confidence conformity. Interestingly, they tended to become committed to their side early on and gain confidence gradually over subsequent sessions. This polarizing behaviour may be explained by two kinds of preferences: (1) Participant’s confidence enhancement towards same-sided confederates was greater in magnitude compared to the decrement towards an opposite-sided confederate; and (2) Participants had the most effective confidence boost when the same-sided confederates shared similar, but not considerably different, confidence level to theirs. In other words, humans exhibit side- and similarity-biases during confidence conformity.

P19 An audit to improve ENT SHO confidence in using Floseal in the management of epistaxis

Background Departmental guidelines regarding the management of epistaxis were adapted to deal with the additional challenges presented during the Covid-19 pandemic. One of these adjustments involved the increasing use of haemostatic sealants such as Floseal in the management of epistaxis allowing reduced admission rates and hospital stay lengths for patients therefore reducing their risk of exposure to Covid-19. Aims To improve SHO’s confidence in using Floseal in the management of epistaxis. Methods A primary online survey was conducted to assess local ENT SHO’s confidence in making up and using haemostatic Floseal in the management of epistaxis. The SHO’s were then given teaching on how to make up Floseal and a poster including pictures was created. A secondary online survey was performed to re-audit the SHO’s confidence following this intervention. Results Of the 10 respondents, 3 had previous experience in using Floseal. Pre intervention the average confidence rating on a scale of 1 to 5 (5 – Most confident) in drawing up Floseal was scored at 2. Following teaching and implementation of the new poster the average confidence rating was scored at 4.4 (a 48% increase). From the respondents, 90% expressed that they found the poster useful and that they would also find further teaching on the use of Floseal beneficial in the future. Conclusion Teaching and creation of a clear stepwise poster including photographs improved ENT SHO’s confidence in drawing up Floseal. Ongoing education will be given to new juniors to ensure long-standing improvement.

Side- and similarity-biases during confidence conformity

Memory conformity may develop when people are confronted with some divergent memories of others in social situations and knowingly/unknowingly incorporate these exogenous memories into their owns. Earlier research suggests that memory conformity is more prominent in subjects who bear low confidence towards their memory accuracy. Nonetheless, it is unclear whether and how this subjective confidence may likewise be influenced by the confidence levels of others. Here, we followed participant’s confidence transformation quantitatively over three confederate sessions in a memory test. After studying a set of human motion videos, participants had to answer whether a particular video had appeared before by indicating their side (i.e. Yes/No) and the associated confidence rating simultaneously. Participants were allowed to adjust their responses as they were being shown randomly-generated confederates’ answers and confidence values. Overall, we found that participants tended to become committed to their side early on and gain confidence gradually over subsequent sessions. This polarizing behavior may be explained by two kinds of preferences: (1) Participant’s confidence enhancement towards same-sided confederates was greater in magnitude compared to the decrement towards an opposite-sided confederate; and (2) Participants had the most effective confidence boost when the same-sided confederates shared similar, but not considerably different, confidence level to theirs. In other words, humans exhibit side- and similarity-biases during confidence conformity. Interestingly, among our participants, those who built up their confidence upon others’ retained a higher level of flexibility to change than those who had strong initial confidence. Thus, confidence polarization may not be a totally irreversible trend.

Cardiac and Proprioceptive Accuracy Are Not Related to Body Awareness, Perceived Body Competence, and Affect

Interoception in the broader sense refers to the perception of internal states, including the perception of the actual state of the internal organs (visceroception) and the motor system (proprioception). Dimensions of interoception include (1) interoceptive accuracy, i.e., the ability to sense internal changes assessed with behavioral tests, (2) confidence rating with respect to perceived performance in an actual behavioral test, and (3) interoceptive sensibility, i.e., the self-reported generalized ability to perceive body changes. The relationship between dimension of cardioceptive and proprioceptive modalities and their association with affect are scarcely studied. In the present study, undergraduate students (N = 105, 53 males, age: 21.0 ± 1.87 years) filled out questionnaires assessing positive and negative affect (Positive and Negative Affect Schedule), interoceptive sensibility (Body Awareness Questionnaire), and body competence (Body Competence Scale of the Body Consciousness Questionnaire). Following this, they completed a behavioral task assessing cardioceptive accuracy (the mental heartbeat tracking task by Schandry) and two tasks assessing proprioceptive accuracy with respect to the tension of arm flexor muscles (weight discrimination task) and the angular position of the elbow joint (joint position reproduction task). Confidence ratings were measured with visual analog scales after the tasks. With the exception of a weak association between cardioceptive accuracy and the respective confidence rating, no associations between and within modalities were found with respect to various dimensions of interoception. Further, the interoceptive dimensions were not associated with state and trait positive and negative affect and perceived body competence. In summary, interoceptive accuracy scores do not substantially contribute to conscious representations of cardioceptive and proprioceptive ability. Within our data, non-pathological affective states (PANAS) are not associated with the major dimensions of interoception for the cardiac and proprioceptive modalities.

For Your Safety

How do you know if the government-imposed limits on personal freedom “for your protection” have gone too far? Are there certain risks the government shouldn’t protect people from? In this work of philosophical short story fiction, Zoe gets a knock on her door from the Department of Public Health. They have detected increased biochemical signatures that lead them to believe she has been having sexual intercourse without a properly filed Intimate Partnership Agreement (IPA). The IPA’s are for her protection to ensure that any potential partners are disease free. Initially, she denies the accusations, but the evidence from her Livewell stream is overwhelming. This time, it’s just a fine, but if it happens again the punishments will get more severe, all the way up to having points deducted from her social confidence rating. The government employees leave and Zoe heads back into the bedroom to find her one-night stand has committed suicide.

Critérios de decisão na ilusão da máscara côncava na esquizofrenia

RESUMO Objetivo Alguns estudos têm mostrado que indivíduos com esquizofrenia não experimentam a ilusão da máscara côncava. Nesse fenômeno, uma máscara apresentada em seu lado côncavo é percebida como convexa. A ocorrência dessa ilusão, de acordo com uma hipótese, dar-se-ia pela inibição dos processos top-down sobre os processos bottom-up. Neste estudo, foi investigado se havia uma diferença estatisticamente significativa entre os indivíduos com esquizofrenia comparados aos indivíduos saudáveis na distinção do lado côncavo do convexo de uma máscara, bem como qual hipótese melhor explicava o fenômeno, a inibição top-down ou critérios de decisão diferentes. Métodos Adotando a teoria da detecção do sinal e o método de coleta de dados, Confidence Rating , procurou-se verificar o desempenho nos julgamentos dos indivíduos com esquizofrenia comparados aos indivíduos saudáveis frente a uma máscara que ora foi apresentada em seu lado côncavo ora em seu lado convexo. Resultados Neste estudo, os indivíduos com esquizofrenia foram suscetíveis à ilusão e mais liberais em seus julgamentos diante do estímulo máscara. Conclusões A hipótese de inibição top-down sobre os processos bottom-up parece não ser uma explicação plausível. Talvez, a tomada de decisão ou critérios de decisão explique melhor os resultados encontrados neste estudo. Mais estudos são necessários para esclarecer melhor o fenômeno da ilusão da máscara côncava em indivíduos com esquizofrenia.

Effect of Confidence Interval Construction on Judgment Accuracy

Three experiments (N = 550) examined the effect of an interval construction elicitation method used in several expert elicitation studies on judgment accuracy. Participants made judgments about topics that were either searchable or unsearchable online using one of two order variations of the interval construction procedure. One group of participants provided their best judgment (one step) prior to constructing an interval (i.e., lower bound, upper bound, and a confidence rating that the correct value fell in the range provided), whereas another group of participants provided their best judgment last, after the three-step confidence interval was constructed. Theoverall effect of this elicitation method was not significant in 8 out of 9 univariate tests. Moreover, the calibration of confidence intervals also was not affected by elicitation order. The findings warrant skepticism regarding the benefit of prior confidence interval construction forimproving judgment accuracy.