Database of Active Faults in Slovenia: Compiling a New Active Fault Database at the Junction Between the Alps, the Dinarides and the Pannonian Basin Tectonic Domains

We present the compilation of a new database of active faults in Slovenia, aiming at introducing geological data for the first time as input for a new national seismic hazard model. The area at the junction of the Alps, the Dinarides, and the Pannonian Basin is moderately seismically active. About a dozen Mw > 5.5 earthquakes have occurred across the national territory in the last millennium, four of which in the instrumental era. The relative paucity of major earthquakes and low to moderate fault slip rates necessitate the use of geologic input for a more representative assessment of seismic hazard. Active fault identification is complicated by complex regional structural setting due to overprinting of different tectonic phases. Additionally, overall high rates of erosion, denudation and slope mass movement processes with rates up to several orders of magnitude larger than fault slip rates obscure the surface definition of faults and traces of activity, making fault parametrization difficult. The presented database includes active, probably active and potentially active faults with trace lengths >5 km, systematically compiled and cataloged from a vast and highly heterogeneous dataset. Input data was mined from published papers, reports, studies, maps, unpublished reports and data from the Geological Survey of Slovenia archives and dedicated studies. All faults in the database are fully parametrized with spatial, geometric, kinematic and activity data with parameter descriptors including data origin and data quality for full traceability of input data. The input dataset was compiled through an extended questionnaire and a set of criteria into a homogenous database. The final database includes 96 faults with 240 segments and is optimized for maximum compatibility with other current maps of active faults at national and EU levels. It is by far the most detailed and advanced map of active faults in Slovenia.

The relation between short- and long-term deformation in actively deforming plate boundary zones

Satellite-based measuring systems are making it possible to monitor deformation of the Earth's surface at a high spatial resolution over periods of several decades and a significant fraction of the seismic cycle. It is widely assumed that this short-term deformation directly reflects the long-term pattern of crustal deformation, although modified in detail by local elastic effects related to locking on individual faults. This way, short-term deformation is often jointly inverted with long-term estimates of fault slip rates, or even stress, over periods of 10 s to 100 s kyrs. Here, I examine the relation between these two timescales of deformation for subduction, continental shortening and rifting tectonic settings, with examples from the active New Zealand and Central Andean plate boundary zone. I show that the relation is inherently non-unique, and simple models of locking on a deep-seated megathrust or decollement, or mantle flow, provide excellent fits to the short-term observations without requiring any information about the geometry and rate of surface faulting. The short-term deformation, in these settings at least, cannot be used to determine the behaviour of individual faults, but instead places constraints on the forces that drive deformation. Thus, there is a fundamental difference between the stress loading and stress relief parts of the earthquake cycle, with failure determined by dynamical rather than kinematic constraints; the same stress loading can give rise to widely different modes of long-term deformation, depending on the strength and rheology of the deforming zone, and the role of gravitational stresses. The process of slip on networks of active faults may have an intermediate timescale of kyrs to 10 s kyrs, where individual faults fail piecemeal without any characteristic behaviour. Physics-based dynamical models of short-term deformation may be the best way to make full use of the increasing quality of this type of data in the future. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Understanding earthquakes using the geological record’.

A systems-based approach to parameterise seismic hazard in regions with little historical or instrumental seismicity: active fault and seismogenic source databases for southern Malawi

Seismic hazard is commonly characterised using instrumental seismic records. However, these records are short relative to earthquake repeat times, and extrapolating to estimate seismic hazard can misrepresent the probable location, magnitude, and frequency of future large earthquakes. Although paleoseismology can address this challenge, this approach requires certain geomorphic setting, is resource intensive, and can carry large inherent uncertainties. Here, we outline how fault slip rates and recurrence intervals can be estimated by combining fault geometry, earthquake-scaling relationships, geodetically derived regional strain rates, and geological constraints of regional strain distribution. We apply this approach to southern Malawi, near the southern end of the East African Rift, and where, although no on-fault slip rate measurements exist, there are constraints on strain partitioning between border and intra-basin faults. This has led to the development of the South Malawi Active Fault Database (SMAFD), a geographical database of 23 active fault traces, and the South Malawi Seismogenic Source Database (SMSSD), in which we apply our systems-based approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes and recurrence intervals for the faults compiled in the SMAFD. We estimate earthquake magnitudes of MW 5.4–7.2 for individual fault sections in the SMSSD and MW 5.6–7.8 for whole-fault ruptures. However, low fault slip rates (intermediate estimates ∼ 0.05–0.8 mm/yr) imply long recurrence intervals between events: 102–105 years for border faults and 103–106 years for intra-basin faults. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the large range of these estimates can best be reduced with improved geodetic constraints in southern Malawi. The SMAFD and SMSSD provide a framework for using geological and geodetic information to characterise seismic hazard in regions with few on-fault slip rate measurements, and they could be adapted for use elsewhere in the East African Rift and globally.

New geodetic constraints on southern San Andreas fault-slip rates, San Gorgonio Pass, California

Assessing fault-slip rates in diffuse plate boundary systems such as the San Andreas fault in southern California is critical both to characterize seis­mic hazards and to understand how different fault strands work together to accommodate plate boundary motion. In places such as San Gorgonio Pass, the geometric complexity of numerous fault strands interacting in a small area adds an extra obstacle to understanding the rupture potential and behavior of each individual fault. To better understand partitioning of fault-slip rates in this region, we build a new set of elastic fault-block models that test 16 different model fault geometries for the area. These models build on previ­ous studies by incorporating updated campaign GPS measurements from the San Bernardino Mountains and Eastern Transverse Ranges into a newly calculated GPS velocity field that has been removed of long- and short-term postseismic displacements from 12 past large-magnitude earthquakes to estimate model fault-slip rates. Using this postseismic-reduced GPS velocity field produces a best- fitting model geometry that resolves the long-standing geologic-geodetic slip-rate discrepancy in the Eastern California shear zone when off-fault deformation is taken into account, yielding a summed slip rate of 7.2 ± 2.8 mm/yr. Our models indicate that two active strands of the San Andreas system in San Gorgonio Pass are needed to produce sufficiently low geodetic dextral slip rates to match geologic observations. Lastly, results suggest that postseismic deformation may have more of a role to play in affecting the loading of faults in southern California than previously thought.

Supplemental Material: New geodetic constraints on southern San Andreas fault-slip rates, San Gorgonio Pass, California

<div>Includes tables of statistical details regarding estimation of GPS velocities (including the map position and names of all campaign and continuous station sites) and the full model assessments of fit. Also includes figures that present details of all strike-slip and dip-slip fault-slip rates calculated within models.<br></div>

Supplemental Material: New geodetic constraints on southern San Andreas fault-slip rates, San Gorgonio Pass, California

<div>Includes tables of statistical details regarding estimation of GPS velocities (including the map position and names of all campaign and continuous station sites) and the full model assessments of fit. Also includes figures that present details of all strike-slip and dip-slip fault-slip rates calculated within models.<br></div>

Multisegment Rupture Hazard Modeling along the Xianshuihe Fault Zone, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

The Xianshuihe fault is a remarkable strike-slip fault characterized by high slip rate (∼10 mm/yr) and frequent strong historical earthquakes. The potential for future large earthquakes on this fault is enhanced by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Previous works gave little attention to the probabilities of multisegment ruptures on the Xianshuihe fault. In this study, we build five possible multisegment rupture combination models for the Xianshuihe fault. The fault slip rates and historical earthquakes are used as input constraints to model the future seismicity on the fault segments and test whether the rupture combination models are appropriate. The segment combination model, based essentially on historical ruptures, has produced the seismicity rates most consistent with the historical records, although the model with ruptures on both the entire northern section and southern section should also be considered. The peak ground acceleration values with a return period of 475 yr calculated using the modeled rates on the Xianshuihe fault for both two models are on average larger than the values of the China Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map.