Does a One Health Approach to Human African Trypanosomiasis Control Hasten Elimination? A Stochastic Compartmental Modeling Approach

Background: In response to large strides in the control of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), in the early 2000s the WHO set targets for elimination of both the gambiense (gHAT) and rhodesiense (rHAT) forms as a public health (EPHP) problem by 2020, and elimination of gHAT transmisson (EOT) by 2030. While global EPHP targets have been met, and EOT appears within reach, there is ample evidence that current control strategies will not achieve gHAT EOT in the presence of animal reservoirs, the role of which is currently uncertain. Furthermore, rHAT is not targeted for EOT due to the known importance of animal reservoirs for this form. Methods: To evaluate the utility of a One Health approach to gHAT and rHAT EOT, we built and parameterized a compartmental stochastic model, using the Institute for Disease Modeling's Compartmental Modeling Software, to six HAT epidemics: the national rHAT epidemics in Uganda and Malawi, the national gHAT epidemics in Uganda and South Sudan, and two separate gHAT epidemics in Democratic Republic of Congo distinguished by dominant vector species. In rHAT foci the reservoir animal sub-model was stratified on four species groups, while in gHAT foci domestic swine were assumed to be the only competent reservoir. The modeled time horizon was 2005-2045, with calibration performed using HAT surveillance data from 2000-2004 and Optuna. Interventions included insecticide and trypanocide treatment of domestic animal reservoirs at varying coverage levels. Results: Validation against HAT surveillance data indicates favorable performance overall, with the possible exception of DRC. EOT was not observed in any modeled scenarios for rHAT, however insecticide treatment consistently performed better than trypanocide treatment in terms of rHAT control. EOT was not observed for gHAT at 0% coverage of domestic reservoirs with trypanocides or insecticides, but was observed by 2030 in all test scenarios; again, insecticides demonstrated superior performance to trypanocides. Conclusions: EOT cannot be achieved for rHAT without control of wildlife reservoirs, however insecticide treatment of domestic animals holds promise for improved control. In the presence of domestic animal reservoirs, gHAT EOT will not be achieved under current control strategies.

Guide to Plant-PET Imaging Using 11CO2

Due to its high sensitivity and specificity for tumor detection, positron emission tomography (PET) has become a standard and widely used molecular imaging technique. Given the popularity of PET, both clinically and preclinically, its use has been extended to study plants. However, only a limited number of research groups worldwide report PET-based studies, while we believe that this technique has much more potential and could contribute extensively to plant science. The limited application of PET may be related to the complexity of putting together methodological developments from multiple disciplines, such as radio-pharmacology, physics, mathematics and engineering, which may form an obstacle for some research groups. By means of this manuscript, we want to encourage researchers to study plants using PET. The main goal is to provide a clear description on how to design and execute PET scans, process the resulting data and fully explore its potential by quantification via compartmental modeling. The different steps that need to be taken will be discussed as well as the related challenges. Hereby, the main focus will be on, although not limited to, tracing 11CO2 to study plant carbon dynamics.

Maximally efficient prediction in the early fly visual system may support evasive flight maneuvers

The visual system must make predictions to compensate for inherent delays in its processing. Yet little is known, mechanistically, about how prediction aids natural behaviors. Here, we show that despite a 20-30ms intrinsic processing delay, the vertical motion sensitive (VS) network of the blowfly achieves maximally efficient prediction. This prediction enables the fly to fine-tune its complex, yet brief, evasive flight maneuvers according to its initial ego-rotation at the time of detection of the visual threat. Combining a rich database of behavioral recordings with detailed compartmental modeling of the VS network, we further show that the VS network has axonal gap junctions that are critical for optimal prediction. During evasive maneuvers, a VS subpopulation that directly innervates the neck motor center can convey predictive information about the fly’s future ego-rotation, potentially crucial for ongoing flight control. These results suggest a novel sensory-motor pathway that links sensory prediction to behavior.

Agent-based evolving network modeling: a new simulation method for modeling low prevalence infectious diseases

Agent-based network modeling (ABNM) simulates each person at the individual-level as agents of the simulation, and uses network generation algorithms to generate the network of contacts between individuals. ABNM are suitable for simulating individual-level dynamics of infectious diseases, especially for diseases such as HIV that spread through close contacts within intricate contact networks. However, as ABNM simulates a scaled-version of the full population, consisting of all infected and susceptible persons, they are computationally infeasible for studying certain questions in low prevalence diseases such as HIV. We present a new simulation technique, agent-based evolving network modeling (ABENM), which includes a new network generation algorithm, Evolving Contact Network Algorithm (ECNA), for generating scale-free networks. ABENM simulates only infected persons and their immediate contacts at the individual-level as agents of the simulation, and uses the ECNA for generating the contact structures between these individuals. All other susceptible persons are modeled using a compartmental modeling structure. Thus, ABENM has a hybrid agent-based and compartmental modeling structure. The ECNA uses concepts from graph theory for generating scale-free networks. Multiple social networks, including sexual partnership networks and needle sharing networks among injecting drug-users, are known to follow a scale-free network structure. Numerical results comparing ABENM with ABNM estimations for disease trajectories of hypothetical diseases transmitted on scale-free contact networks are promising for application to low prevalence diseases.

Empowering Compartmental Modeling With Mobility and Shelter-in-Place Analysis

A model that is capable of handling the non-linear trend of COVID-19 throughout the US and evaluate different effects of interstate/intrastate mobility measures can help decision-makers adjust guidelines and state-wide mandates to contain the pandemic's spread. The abundance of cellular-based data has made it possible to study many aspects of users' mobility, including their travel, contact, and dwell patterns. This study uses a compartmental metapopulation model to present a correlation between the contact and mobility indices and the likelihood of being susceptible to infection. We studied the effect of travel from other states on overall infections in a destination state and observed a strong inverse correlation of 0.98 between the contact index and social awareness compartment, i.e., individuals who are no longer susceptible to infection. The shelter-in-place what-if analysis for travelers from other states on the course of infection in the destination state showed a possible reduction of over 22% in the total number of infections and death if travelers sheltered in place for 5–7 days.