Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones: Vortex waves seeded by aurorally-generated atmospheric gravity waves?

<p>Convective bursts have been linked to intensification of tropical cyclones [1]. We consider a possibility of convective bursts being triggered by aurorally-generated atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) that may play a role in the intensification process of tropical cyclones [2]. A two-dimensional barotropic approximation is used to obtain asymptotic solutions representing propagation of vortex waves [3] launched in tropical cyclones by quasi-periodic convective bursts. The absorption of vortex waves by the mean flow and formation of the secondary eyewall lead to a process of an eyewall replacement cycle that is known to cause changes in tropical cyclone intensity [4]. Rapid intensification of hurricanes and typhoons from 1995-2018 is examined in the context of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere (MIA) system. In support of recently published results [2] it is shown that rapid intensification of TCs tend to follow arrival of high-speed solar wind when the MIA coupling is strongest. The coupling generates internal gravity waves in the atmosphere that propagate from the high-latitude lower thermosphere both upward and downward. In the lower atmosphere, they can be ducted [5] and reach tropical troposphere. Despite their significantly reduced amplitude, but subject to amplification upon over-reflection in the upper troposphere, these AGWs can trigger/release moist instabilities leading to convection and latent heat release. A possibility of initiation of convective bursts by aurorally generated AGWs is investigated. Cases of rapid intensification of recent tropical cyclones provide further evidence to support the published results [2].</p><p>References</p><p>[1] Steranka et al., Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 1539-1546, 1986.</p><p>[2] Prikryl et al., J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 2019.</p><p>[3] Nikitina L.V., Campbell L.J., Stud. Appl. Math., 135, 377–446, 2015.</p><p>[4] Willoughby H.E., et al., J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 395–411, 1982.</p><p>[5] Mayr H.G., et al., J. Geophys. Res., 89, 10929–10959, 1984.</p>

A Study of the Interaction between Typhoon Francisco (2013) and a Cold-Core Eddy. Part I: Rapid Weakening

Typhoon Francisco (2013) experienced unusually rapid weakening (RW) with its maximum surface wind decreasing by 45 kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1) over 24 h as measured from the satellite-derived advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) dataset, which is more than twice the weakening rate defined as RW by DeMaria. The mechanisms leading to the extreme RW event of Francisco are examined based on observational analysis and simulations by coupling the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, version 3.7, with the Stony Brook Parallel Ocean Model (sbPOM). The RW of Francisco took place in a relatively favorable atmospheric environment while passing over detrimental oceanic conditions, dominated by the presence of a cold-core eddy. The passages of two prior typhoons apparently intensified the cold-core eddy, contributing to a major role of eddy feedback on RW for Francisco. The structural changes in Francisco accompanying eddy interaction are characterized by a substantially enlarged eye size, which evolved from ~20 to ~100 km in diameter, as indicated from satellite images. Numerical simulations suggest that the eddy is prominent in weakening the intensity of Francisco during the storm–eddy interaction, with its role less significant but still comparable to that of the cold wake. Both the cooler water and stronger upward motion in the eddy lead to a larger sea surface temperature decrease induced by Francisco, which results in a nearly 50% decrease of surface enthalpy flux, suppressed convective bursts, and a 50% reduction in latent heat release. These results underscore the potential importance of open-ocean, cold-core eddies in contributing to the RW of tropical cyclones.

The Relationship between Convective Bursts and Warm-Core Intensification in a Nonhydrostatic Simulation of Typhoon Lionrock (2016)

Typhoon Lionrock (2016) was unusual among tropical cyclones (TCs) in that it formed east of the monsoon gyre in the western North Pacific, and moved counterclockwise. It rapidly intensified in the monsoon gyre in an environment of weak upper-tropospheric winds and vertical wind shear. This study used a 3-km mesh nonhydrostatic model to examine the warm-core intensification of Typhoon Lionrock, which was associated with cyclone-scale vigorous convection [i.e., convective bursts (CBs)]. The simulation reproduced the multiple CBs at intervals of 1 day or shorter, which were related to the diurnal cycles and other short time-scale variations in the TC convection. Each CB tended to precede peak temperature anomalies near the TC center by 0–12 h, indicating that the warm-core intensification occurred due to diabatic heating released by the vigorous eyewall convection. Notably, updrafts due to convection during the intensification phase were stronger than those occurring during the mature and decay phases, and the maximum temperature anomaly of the upper-tropospheric warm core rapidly increased during eyewall formation. In addition, this study indicated that most of the asymmetric inner-core vigorous convection associated with CBs, which was induced by the vertical wind shear, contributed to the warm-core intensification. Furthermore, the budget analysis of potential temperature within the TC inner core showed that adiabatic heating due to subsidence from near the tropopause within the eye, often following CBs, was essential in developing the eye. The lag correlation suggested the lag time between the CBs and the subsidence within the eye was 3–9 h.

The Relationship between Spatial Variations in the Structure of Convective Bursts and Tropical Cyclone Intensification as Determined by Airborne Doppler Radar

The relationship between radial and azimuthal variations in the composite characteristics of convective bursts (CBs), that is, regions of the most intense upward motion in tropical cyclones (TCs), and TC intensity change is examined using NOAA P-3 tail Doppler radar. Aircraft passes collected over a 13-yr period are examined in a coordinate system rotated relative to the deep-layer vertical wind shear vector and normalized by the low-level radius of maximum winds (RMW). The characteristics of CBs are investigated to determine how the radial and azimuthal variations of their structures are related to hurricane intensity change. In general, CBs have elevated reflectivity just below the updraft axis, enhanced tangential wind below and radially outward of the updraft, enhanced vorticity near the updraft, and divergent radial flow at the top of the updraft. When examining CB structure by shear-relative quadrant, the downshear-right (upshear left) region has updrafts at the lowest (highest) altitudes and weakest (strongest) magnitudes. When further stratifying by intensity change, the greatest differences are seen upshear. Intensifying storms have updrafts on the upshear side at a higher altitude and stronger magnitude than steady-state storms. This distribution provides a greater projection of diabatic heating onto the azimuthal mean, resulting in a more efficient vortex spinup. For variations based on radial location, CBs located inside the RMW show stronger updrafts at a higher altitude for intensifying storms. Stronger and deeper updrafts inside the RMW can spin up the vortex through greater angular momentum convergence and a more efficient vortex response to the diabatic heating.