Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Assessment and Modeling Uncertainties for Fuego Volcano, Guatemala

On 3 June 2018, Fuego volcano experienced a VEI = 3 eruption, which produced a pyroclastic density current (PDC) that devastated the La Réunion resort and the community of Los Lotes, resulting in over 100 deaths. To evaluate the potential hazard to the population centers surrounding Fuego associated with future PDC emplacement, we used an integrated remote sensing and flow modeling-based approach. The predominate PDC travel direction over the past 15 years was investigated using thermal infrared (TIR) data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) instrument validated with ground reports from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology, and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH), the government agency responsible for monitoring. Two different ASTER-derived digital elevation model (DEM) products with varying levels of noise were also used to assess the uncertainty in the VolcFlow model results. Our findings indicate that the recent historical PDC travel direction is dominantly toward the south and southwest. Population centers in this region of Fuego that are within ~2 km of one of the volcano’s radial barrancas are at the highest risk during future large eruptions that produce PDCs. The ASTER global DEM (GDEM) product has the least random noise and where used with the VolcFlow model, had a significant improvement on its accuracy. Results produced longer flow runout distances and therefore better conveys a more accurate perception of risk. Different PDC volumes were then modeled using the GDEM and VolcFlow to determine potential inundation areas in relation to local communities.

Volcano Monitoring from Space Using High-Cadence Planet CubeSat Images Applied to Fuego Volcano, Guatemala

Fuego volcano (Guatemala) is one of the most active and hazardous volcanoes in the world. Its persistent activity generates lava flows, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), and lahars that threaten the surrounding areas and produce frequent morphological change. Fuego’s eruption deposits are often rapidly eroded or remobilized by heavy rains and its constant activity and inaccessible terrain makes ground-based assessment of recent eruptive deposits very challenging. Earth-orbiting satellites can provide unique observations of volcanoes during eruptive activity, when ground-based techniques may be too hazardous, and also during inter-eruptive phases, but have typically been hindered by relatively low spatial and temporal resolution. Here, we use a new source of Earth observation data for volcano monitoring: high resolution (~3 m pixel size) images acquired from a constellation of over 150 CubeSats (‘Doves’) operated by Planet Labs Inc. The Planet Labs constellation provides high spatial resolution at high cadence (<1–72 h), permitting space-based tracking of volcanic activity with unprecedented detail. We show how PlanetScope images collected before, during, and after an eruption can be applied for mapping ash clouds, PDCs, lava flows, or the analysis of morphological change. We assess the utility of the PlanetScope data as a tool for volcano monitoring and rapid deposit mapping that could assist volcanic hazard mitigation efforts in Guatemala and other active volcanic regions.

Determination of Primary and Secondary Lahar Flow Paths of the Fuego Volcano (Guatemala) Using Morphometric Parameters

On 3 June 2018, a strong eruption of the Fuego volcano in Guatemala produced a dense cloud of 10-km-high volcanic ash and destructive pyroclastic flows that caused nearly 200 deaths and huge economic losses in the region. Subsequently, due to heavy rains, destructive secondary lahars were produced, which were not plotted on the hazard maps using the LAHAR Z software. In this work we propose to complement the mapping of this type of lahars using remote-sensing (Differential Interferometry, DINSAR) in Sentinel images 1A and 2A, to locate areas of deformation of the relief on the flanks of the volcano, areas that are possibly origin of these lahars. To determine the trajectory of the lahars, parameters and morphological indices were analyzed with the software System for Automated Geoscientific Analysis (SAGA). The parameters and morphological indices used were the accumulation of flow (FCC), the topographic wetness index (TWI), the length-magnitude factor of the slope (LS). Finally, a slope stability analysis was performed using the Shallow Landslide Susceptibility software (SHALSTAB) based on the Mohr–Coulomb theory and its parameters: internal soil saturation degree and effective precipitation, parameters required to destabilize a hillside. In this case, the application of this complementary methodology provided a more accurate response of the areas destroyed by primary and secondary lahars in the vicinity of the volcano.