scholarly journals THE DYNAMICS OF STORM SURGE AND MEAN SEA LEVEL VARIABILITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CASPIAN SEA

2018 ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Xiufeng Yang ◽  
Dale Kerper ◽  
Shubhra Misra ◽  
James Stear ◽  
Tao Shen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Ice Formation ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Water Depths

Storm surge is a major natural hazard to the construction and operation of infrastructure projects in shallow and gently sloping coastal areas such as the northeastern part of the Caspian Sea. Up-surge events cause significant coastal flooding, while down-surge events disrupt marine transportation by constraining safe navigable water depths. Coastal developments therefore have to achieve a judicious balance of these conflicting constraints. Further, the unpredictability of long-term and intra-annual Mean Sea Level (MSL) variability as well as periodic freeze-up and break-up due to ice formation in this part of the Caspian Sea complicate a robust and unequivocal basis for defining storm surge hazards.

scholarly journals Long-term variability of storm surge frequency in the Venice Lagoon: an update thanks to 18th century sea level observations

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 527-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Raicich
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Venice Lagoon ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Anomalies ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Remarkable Event

Abstract. Sea level observations made in the Venice Lagoon between 1751 and 1792 have been recovered, consisting of two time series of daily data on high and low waters in Venice and Chioggia. From comparisons with modern observations, the quality of the 18th century data appears to be good enough to allow a useful analysis. A composite time series of daily mean sea level is obtained by merging the 18th century data and 1872–2004 observations in Venice Punta della Salute. The absence of reliable information on vertical references prevents the connection of the two 18th century time series with each other and with modern observations. However, daily sea level anomalies relative to the mean sea level enable us to recognize storm surge events that appear to occur more frequently in the second half of the 18th century than in the late 19th and 20th centuries, particularly during the 1751–1769 period. The record-breaking storm surge of 4 November 1966 turns out to be a remarkable event even in comparison to the events extracted from the 18th century time series. Further work is required to fill the gap between the old and modern observations.

scholarly journals Results of sea level studies at RSHU

2020 ◽  
pp. 269-305
Author(s):  
V.N. Malinin ◽  
S.M. Gordeeva ◽  
Yu.V. Mitina ◽  
O.I. Shevchuk
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Volga Basin ◽  
Cyclonic Activity ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Study of sea level is being developed at RSHU in several directions: global, regional and local. The global one includes the study of the patterns of interannual fluctuations of the global sea level (GLS), identification of their genesis and development of a set of methods for its long-term forecast. Two approaches to the genesis of GLS are considered. In foreign studies, changes in GLS are determined by changes in the water mass of various cryosphere components, land water reserves and steric level fluctuations. Another approach, implemented at RSHU, is to assess contributions of various factors using the equation of the freshwater balance of the World Ocean as the sum of eustatic and steric factors. A physical-statistical method for two-decade GLS forecasting, based on delay in the GLS response to air temperature over the ocean, has been developed, as well as the GLS projections at the end of the century for climatic scenarios according to the CMIP5 project have been provided. In the regional context, the main attention is paid to identifying the genesis of the interannual variability of the Caspian Sea level with the aim of its long-term forecasting. The entire chain of cause-and-effect relationships in the North Atlantic-atmosphere-Volga basin-Caspian level system is discussed. It has been established that, as a result of the intensification of cyclonic activity in the North Atlantic, especially in the Norwegian Sea, caused by the processes of large-scale interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere, there is an increase in evaporation and in the zonal transfer of water vapour to Europe and then to the Volga basin. Therefore, more precipitation falls in the runoff-forming zone of the basin, the annual runoff of the Volga and the level of the Caspian Sea increasing. The reverse is observed with weakening of cyclonic activity in the North Atlantic. In view of this, the level of the Caspian Sea is an integral indicator of largescale moisture exchange in the ocean-atmosphere-land system. The article discusses the features of interannual sea level fluctuations in Kronstadt since 1836. A simple two-parameter model for forecasting sea level by the end of the 21st century is proposed for major climate scenarios, the predictors being the GSL and the North Atlantic Oscillation. According to the most realistic forecast, the level in Kronstadt may rise to 34-59 cm (Baltic system) by the end of the century, while according to the “pessimistic” one — to 80-90 cm (Baltic system). The estimates of the extreme storm surge at which the level rise north of the Gorskaya can reach 600 cm (Baltic system) are given. The effect of flooding from storm surges is especially strong near Sestroretsk. The total area of possible flooding of the Kurortny district at a 4-m high surge wave exceeds 1260 hectares, all the beaches being completely lost. The trajectories of flood cyclones and their role for periods of climate warming and cooling are considered

scholarly journals Long-term variability of storm surge frequency in the Venice Lagoon: an update thanks to eighteenth century sea level observations

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (12) ◽  
pp. 7465-7486
Author(s):  
F. Raicich
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Venice Lagoon ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Anomalies ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Remarkable Event

Abstract. Sea level observations made in the Venice Lagoon between 1751 and 1792 have been recovered, consisting of two time series of daily data on high and low waters at Venice and Chioggia. From comparisons with modern observations the quality of the 18th century data appears to be good enough to allow a useful analysis. A composite time series of daily mean sea level is obtained by merging the 18th century data and 1872–2004 observations at Venice Punta della Salute. The absence of reliable information on vertical references prevents the connection of the two 18th century time series with each other and with modern observations. However, daily sea level anomalies relative to the mean sea level enable to recognize storm surge events, that appear to occur more frequently in the second half of the 18th century than in the late 19th and 20th centuries, particularly during the 1751–1769 period. The record-breaking storm surge of 4 November 1966 turns out to be a remarkable event also in comparison with the events extracted from the 18th century time series. Further work is required to fill the gap between the old and modern observations.

RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF CATCHES AND STOCK DYNAMICS OF RUDD IN VOLGA-CASPIAN AND NORTHERN CASPIAN SUBAREAS

Fisheries ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-56
Author(s):  
Tatiana Vetlugina
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
High Water ◽  
Abundant Species ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Large Group ◽  
Runoff Volume ◽  
Term Analysis

Rudd is one of the most abundant species in the large group of minnow in the Volga-Caspian and Northern-Caspian fishery subareas of the Volga–Caspian fishery basin south. The article contains the data on its catches and usable stocks during ХХ – ХХI centuries. A long term analysis of the rudd catches and the runoff volume during the spring high water showed no substantial connection between these processes due to the rudd’s ecological peculiarities. The dynamics of the rudd catches and the level of the Caspian Sea are connected in inverse ratio. Inverse correlations with high determination coefficients between the rudd catches, the usable stocks, and the sea level were obtained.

scholarly journals SCENARIO FORECASTS OF THE CASPIAN SEA FLUCTUATIONS IN THE LEVEL UNDER CLIMATIC AND MAN-MADE IMPACTS ON THE SEA WATER BALANCE

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 130-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. V. Frolov
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Nonlinear Dependence ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
Sea Area

The paper deal with the scenario method for predicting long-term fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level. The scenario forecasts are included: Model of the sea level fluctuations mechanism, Models of the main components of the sea water balance, Morphometric characteristics of sea, Dependence between the outflow of water into the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay and the sea level, Assessments of possible direct technogenic impacts on the sea water balance, for example, the withdrawals of water from the inflow into the sea. The Caspian Sea level long-term fluctuations are considered by us as the output process of a non-linear hydrological system. The mechanism of the Caspian level fluctuations contains two negative and one positive feedback. The dependences of the Caspian sea area and the outflow from the sea into the Kara-Bogaz-Gulf bay on the sea level form negative feedbacks. Positive feedback is formed by the nonlinear dependence of evaporation from the sea area on the sea level. Under certain conditions, the effect of this dependence can lead to the sea level bimodal probability distribution density. A necessary (but not sufficient) condition for bimodality is the absence of free seawater inflow from the sea into Kara-Bogaz-Gol. The results of scenario forecasts of the Caspian Sea level developed within the framework of the Caspian Federal Targeted Program (1994-95) are presented. The linear and nonlinear models of the sea level fluctuations used in scenario forecasts are discussed. Failure to take into account of any kind of the feedbacks leads to incorrect predictive estimates of the sea level fluctuations statistical characteristics.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of Caspian Sea-Level Fluctuations: Radiocarbon Dating Coastal and Bottom Deposits

Radiocarbon ◽  
1993 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 409-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu. A. Karpytchev
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Basin Area

Owing to the large basin area of the Caspian Sea, fluctuations in its level reflect climatic changes in the northern hemisphere. To reconstruct these fluctuations, I collected mollusk shells, plant debris, carbonates and organic matter samples for 14C dating from deposits of ancient salt marshes, depressions and bars formed during significant sea-level decline. I studied the impact of eolian sedimentation via parallel dating of carbonates and other materials. The data demonstrate that sea level rises during periods of cooling and falls during warming periods; this is true for both long-term (2–2.5 ka) and short-term climatic changes.

Evacuation planning for plausible worst case inundation scenarios in Honolulu, Hawaii

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl Kim, PhD ◽  
Pradip Pant, PhD ◽  
Eric Yamashita, MURP
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Travel Times ◽  
Worst Case

Honolulu is susceptible to coastal flooding hazards. Like other coastal cities, Honolulu's long-term economic viability and sustainability depends on how well it can adapt to changes in the natural and built environment. While there is a disagreement over the magnitude and extent of localized impacts associated with climate change, it is widely accepted that by 2100 there will be at least a meter in sea level rise (SLR) and an increase in extreme weather events. Increased exposure and vulnerabilities associated with urbanization and location of human activities in coastal areas warrants serious consideration by planners and policy makers.This article has three objectives. First, flooding due to the combined effects of SLR and episodic hydrometeorological and geophysical events in Honolulu are investigated and the risks to the community are quantified. Second, the risks and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure and the surface transportation system are described. Third, using the travel demand software, travel distances and travel times for evacuation from inundated areas are modeled.Data from three inundation models were used. The first model simulated storm surge from a category 4 hurricane similar to Hurricane Iniki which devastated the island of Kauai in 1992. The second model estimates inundation based on five tsunamis that struck Hawaii. A 1-m increase in sea level was included in both the hurricane storm surge and tsunami flooding models. The third model used in this article generated a 500-year flood event due to riverine flooding. Using a uniform grid cell structure, the three inundation maps were used to assess the worst case flooding scenario. Based on the flood depths, the ruling hazard (hurricane, tsunami, or riverine flooding) for each grid cell was determined. The hazard layer was analyzed with socioeconomic data layers to determine the impact on vulnerable populations, economic activity, and critical infrastructure. The analysis focused both on evacuation needs and the critical elements of the infrastructure system that are needed to ensure effective response and recovery in the advent of flooding.This study shows that the coastal flooding will seriously affect the economy and employment. Extreme flooding events could affect 38 percent of the freeways, 44 percent of the highways, 69 percent of the arterial roads, and 40 percent of the local streets in the area examined. Approximately 80 percent of the economy and 76 percent of the total employment in the urban core of Honolulu is exposed to flooding. Evacuation modeling, shelter accessibility, and travel time to shelter analyses revealed that there is a significant shortage in sheltering options, as well as increases in travel times and distances as inundation depth increases. The findings are useful for evacuation and shelter planning for extreme coastal events, as well as for climate change adaptation planning in Honolulu. Recommendations for emergency responders as well as those interested in the integration of long-term SLR and low probability, high consequence coastal hazards are included. The study shows how to integrate travel demand modeling across multiple hazards and threats related to evacuating, sheltering, and disaster risk reduction.

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