scholarly journals RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND BREACH MODELLING OF SEA/ ESTUARY DIKES AND COASTAL DUNES IN AN INTEGRATED RISK ANALYSIS

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Marie Naulin ◽  
Andreas Kortenhaus ◽  
Hocine Oumeraci
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Dunes ◽  
Elbe Estuary ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Integrated Risk Analysis

In order to quantify the risk of flooding, an integrated risk analysis is being performed within the German ‘XtremRisK’ project (Extreme storm surges at open coasts and estuarine areas: risk assessment and mitigation under climate change aspects) wherein one task is to analyze the reliability and breaching of flood defences. In this paper, the methods and results of the reliability analysis and the breach modelling of sea and estuary dikes and coastal dunes are discussed and applied to examples of the pilot sites of Hamburg (Elbe Estuary) and the Island of Sylt (North Sea). These results are put in context of an integrated flood risk analysis approach used in XtremRisK.

scholarly journals The integrated risk analysis and risk assessment method of information security

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Светлана Владимировна Казмирчук ◽  
Андрей Юрьевич Гололобов
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Integrated Risk Analysis

scholarly journals Integrated risk analysis for rare marine species impacted by fishing: sustainability assessment and population trend modelling

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shijie Zhou ◽  
David A. Milton ◽  
Gary C. Fry
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Rare Species ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Marine Species ◽  
Population Trend ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Population Sustainability ◽  
Integrated Risk Analysis

Abstract Zhou, S., Milton, D. A., and Fry, G. C. 2012. Integrated risk analysis for rare marine species impacted by fishing: sustainability assessment and population trend modelling. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 271–280. Risk assessment and conservation management of rare species are challenging due to a lack of data. We developed an integrated risk assessment approach to assess human impact on population sustainability of rare species. The approach involved two components: a quantitative sustainability assessment coupled with modelling trends in relative abundance. Both components took nil catches into account through zero-inflated statistical distributions that simultaneously modelled the zero and non-zero catches separately in submodels. The sustainability assessment used detection–non-detection data for population estimation and linked sustainability to easily collected life-history traits. This component provides an assessment of population sustainability at one point in time. The trend modelling applied zero-inflated negative binomial models to temporal trends in density and dispersion of species. It provided a complement to the static sustainability assessment. We applied this integrated approach to assess the risk to 14 species of rare, protected sea snakes incidentally caught in the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery. This approach can be applicable for risk assessment of many species with limited abundance data, a large number of absences and some presence–absence information only.

Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

Chemosphere ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 1585-1618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Shlyakhter ◽  
L. James ◽  
A. Valverde ◽  
Richard Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Integrated Risk Analysis

scholarly journals FAILURE PROBABILITY OF FLOOD DEFENCE STRUCTURES/ SYSTEMS IN RISK ANALYSIS FOR EXTREME STORM SURGES

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Naulin ◽  
Andreas Kortenhaus ◽  
Hocine Oumeraci
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Joint Research ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Joint Research Project ◽  
Integrated Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Defence ◽  
Failure Probabilities

Extreme storm surges can cause failures of flood defences resulting in severe flooding of the hinterland and catastrophic damages. In order to quantify the risk of flooding an integrated risk analysis is being performed wherein one task is the determination of failure probabilities of flood defences. In this paper the failure probability calculations of flood defence structures and systems under the loading of extreme storm surges are reported. Moreover, the analysis of the breach and breach development is briefly introduced. Preliminary results of the failure probabilities and the breach modelling are presented using the example of the estuarine urban area of Hamburg, Germany. These results are put in context of an integrated risk analysis approach for extreme storm surges which is applied within an ongoing German joint research project.

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