scholarly journals FAILURE PROBABILITY OF FLOOD DEFENCE STRUCTURES/ SYSTEMS IN RISK ANALYSIS FOR EXTREME STORM SURGES

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Naulin ◽  
Andreas Kortenhaus ◽  
Hocine Oumeraci
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Joint Research ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Joint Research Project ◽  
Integrated Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Defence ◽  
Failure Probabilities

Extreme storm surges can cause failures of flood defences resulting in severe flooding of the hinterland and catastrophic damages. In order to quantify the risk of flooding an integrated risk analysis is being performed wherein one task is the determination of failure probabilities of flood defences. In this paper the failure probability calculations of flood defence structures and systems under the loading of extreme storm surges are reported. Moreover, the analysis of the breach and breach development is briefly introduced. Preliminary results of the failure probabilities and the breach modelling are presented using the example of the estuarine urban area of Hamburg, Germany. These results are put in context of an integrated risk analysis approach for extreme storm surges which is applied within an ongoing German joint research project.

scholarly journals INTEGRATED FLOOD RISK ANALYSIS FOR EXTREME STORM SURGES (XTREMRISK)

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Burzel ◽  
Dilani R. Dassanayake ◽  
Marie Naulin ◽  
Andreas Kortenhaus ◽  
Hocine Oumeraci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Joint Research ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Joint Research Project ◽  
Flood Risk Analysis ◽  
First Results

Extreme storm surges have frequently led to major damages also along the German coastline. The joint research project 'XtremRisK' was initiated to improve the understanding of risk-related issues due to extreme storm surges and to quantify the flood risk for two pilot sites at the open coast and in an estuarine area under present and future climate scenarios. In this context, an integrated flood risk analysis is performed based on the source-pathway-receptor concept under consideration of possible tangible and intangible losses. This paper describes the structure of the project, the methodology of the subprojects, and first results. Moreover, integration approaches are discussed. The results of 'XtremRisK' will be used to propose flood risk mitigation measures for the prospective end-users.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF HYDRAULIC LOADS AND DERIVATION OF FAILURE PROBABILITIES AS A BASIS FOR THE DEERMINATION OF FRAGILITY CURVES FOR FLOOD DEFENCE DUNES

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Angelika Gruhn ◽  
Dörte Salecker ◽  
Peter Fröhle ◽  
Holger Schüttrumpf ◽  
Frank Thorenz
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Damage Analysis ◽  
The European Union ◽  
First Results ◽  
Flood Defence ◽  
Settlement Areas ◽  
Failure Probabilities

Low lying coastal areas have always been preferred settlement areas as well as trading and industrial areas. Unfortunately, those areas are strongly endangered by extreme storm surges. In the event of a flood defence failure, protected areas are flooded and damages have to be expected. For the assessment and management of flood risk, the European Union approved the “Directive of the European Parliament and the Council on the assessment and management of flood risk”. As one part of a risk and damage analysis the risk of flooding - being the product of failure probability of a certain flood defence and the damages resulting from a failure of this flood defence - has to be determined. One possibility for the assessment of the failure probability is provided by fragility curves. A method for the derivation of fragility curves for flood defence dunes is described. Hence, the applied dune erosion model as well as the method for the derivation of the required input data is explained. Furthermore, first results of the calculation of failure probabilities and fragility curves are presented.

scholarly journals SPATIAL MODELLING OF TANGIBLE AND INTANGIBLE LOSSES IN AN INTEGRATED RISK ANALYSIS

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Andreas Burzel ◽  
Dilani R. Dassanayake ◽  
Hocine Oumeraci
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Spatial Modelling ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Flood Risk Analysis ◽  
Integrated Risk Analysis ◽  
The Impact

The expected climate change and the associated possible increase of the frequency and magnitude of extreme storm surges may lead to larger storm surge hazards than have been observed in the past. Therefore, the German XtremRisK project aims to improve the understanding of the impact of extreme storm surges under current and future climate conditions by conducting an integrated flood risk analysis for two selected pilot sites in Germany which may be representative for an open coast (Sylt Island) and a megacity in an estuarine area (Hamburg). The research has also been focused on developing and improving the knowledge, methods and models for the assessment of intangible losses (social and environmental), their spatial modelling as well as their integration with direct and indirect economic losses. After a brief introduction into the integrated flood risk analysis being implemented, the paper describes the methodologies and discusses the results with a focus on the modelling of tangible and intangible losses in the pilot site Hamburg-Wilhelmsburg.

scholarly journals A NEW METHOD OF APPROACHING EXTREME STORM EVENTS FOR DESIGN LEVEL OR RISK ANALYSIS

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Goennert ◽  
Birgit Gerkensmeier
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
New Method ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Joint Research Project ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Linear Interactions

The North Sea coast is seriously threatened by storm surges. Climate change and its consequences, such as a rising sea level, will have serious effects on the safety of people and economic assets in coastal areas. Within the joint research project XtremRisK (bmbf-funded) the Agency of roads bridges and Waters of the Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg developed a new method to calculate extreme storm surge events. The purpose of the research work, to calculated physically feasible extreme events is given consideration by detailed analyses of the single storm-surge components (tide, external surge from the Atlantic and wind surge) and their non-linear interactions by combining deterministic-empirical, statistical and numerical methods. The non-linear interactions can be comprised by hydrodynamic equations such as equation of momentum, continuity equation and volume balance. The claim to develop a comprehensive and physically feasible method is satisfied by the diversity of methodical approaches for analyzing the storm surge components and their interaction processes. Therefore a 2-method concept is developed on the basis of empirical and numerical approaches. The resultant new method is a new way of calculating extreme storm surges and can be used within new design concepts to calculate design level heights or could be a part of risk analysis

scholarly journals RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND BREACH MODELLING OF SEA/ ESTUARY DIKES AND COASTAL DUNES IN AN INTEGRATED RISK ANALYSIS

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Marie Naulin ◽  
Andreas Kortenhaus ◽  
Hocine Oumeraci
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Dunes ◽  
Elbe Estuary ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Integrated Risk Analysis

In order to quantify the risk of flooding, an integrated risk analysis is being performed within the German ‘XtremRisK’ project (Extreme storm surges at open coasts and estuarine areas: risk assessment and mitigation under climate change aspects) wherein one task is to analyze the reliability and breaching of flood defences. In this paper, the methods and results of the reliability analysis and the breach modelling of sea and estuary dikes and coastal dunes are discussed and applied to examples of the pilot sites of Hamburg (Elbe Estuary) and the Island of Sylt (North Sea). These results are put in context of an integrated flood risk analysis approach used in XtremRisK.

Integrated Risk Analysis for Scale Management in Deepwater Developments

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.J. Mackay ◽  
M.M. Jordan ◽  
N.D. Feasey ◽  
D. Shah ◽  
P. Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Integrated Risk Analysis ◽  
Scale Management
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