scholarly journals Global expansion of COVID-19 pandemic is driven by population size and airport connections

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e9708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Tulio Pacheco Coelho ◽  
João Fabrício Mota Rodrigues ◽  
Anderson Matos Medina ◽  
Paulo Scalco ◽  
Levi Carina Terribile ◽  
...  

The pandemic state of COVID-19 caused by the SARS CoV-2 put the world in quarantine, led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and is causing an unprecedented economic crisis. However, COVID-19 is spreading in different rates at different countries. Here, we tested the effect of three classes of predictors, i.e., socioeconomic, climatic and transport, on the rate of daily increase of COVID-19 on its exponential phase. We found that population size and global connections, represented by countries’ importance in the global air transportation network, are the main explanations for the early growth rate of COVID-19 in different countries. Climate and socioeconomics had no significant effect in this big picture analysis. Our results indicate that the current claims that the growth rate of COVID-19 may be lower in warmer and humid countries should be taken very carefully, risking to disturb well-established and effective policy of social isolation that may help to avoid higher mortality rates due to the collapse of national health systems.

Author(s):  
Marco Túlio Pacheco Coelho ◽  
João Fabricio Mota Rodrigues ◽  
Anderson Matos Medina ◽  
Paulo Scalco ◽  
Levi Carina Terribile ◽  
...  

AbstractThe pandemic state of COVID-19 caused by the SARS CoV-2 put the world in quarantine, led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and is causing an unprecedented economic crisis. However, COVID-19 is spreading in different rates at different countries. Here, we tested the effect of three classes of predictors, i.e., socioeconomic, climatic and transport, on the rate of daily increase of COVID-19. We found that global connections, represented by countries’ importance in the global air transportation network, is the main explanation for the growth rate of COVID-19 in different countries. Climate, geographic distance and socioeconomics had a milder effect in this big picture analysis. Geographic distance and climate were significant barriers in the past but were surpassed by the human engine that allowed us to colonize most of our planet land surface. Our results indicate that the current claims that the growth rate of COVID-19 may be lower in warmer and humid tropical countries should be taken very carefully, at risk to disturb well-established and effective policy of social isolation that may help to avoid higher mortality rates due to the collapse of national health systems.


1984 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 586-588
Author(s):  
THOMAS W. FOX ◽  
J. ROBERT SMYTH

Author(s):  
Yong Yang ◽  
Kai-Jun Xu ◽  
Chen Hong

Air transportation networks play important roles in human mobility. In this paper, from the perspective of multilayer network mechanism, the dynamics of the Chinese air transportation network are extensively investigated. A multilayer-based passengers re-scheduling model is introduced, and a multilayer cooperation (MC) approach is proposed to improve the efficiency of network traffic under random failures. We use two metrics: the success rate and the extra transfer number, to evaluate the efficiency of re-scheduling. It is found that a higher success rate of passengers re-scheduling can be obtained by MC, and MC is stronger for resisting the instability of the capacity of links. Furthermore, the explosion of the number of extra transfer can be well restrained by MC. Our work will highlight a better understanding of the dynamics and robustness of the Chinese air transportation network.


2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Sahraei

Continuous genetic selection and improvement in nutrition have led to a very fast growth rate in modern strains of broiler chickens. Metabolic disorders such as ascits, sudden death syndrome and leg problems are related to a rapid early growth rate in poultry, especially in broilers, and their incidence can be decreased by slowing early growth. The use of management tools to reduce metabolic disorders that rely primarily on decreasing feed consumption, The feed restriction programs is on of the main techniques in growth curve manipulation for increasing production efficiency in broiler chicken in alleviate the incidence of some metabolic disorders and can be used to reduction the unfavorable effects of fast growth rate in broiler chicken production industry, and could be profitable in broiler chickens production efficiency. This article implicated on new findings in about different feed restriction programs effects on these problems in broiler chickens.


GEOgraphia ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (49) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Carneiro de Oliveira ◽  
Denis Castilho

Resumo: A crise sanitária ocasionada pela Covid-19 tem demonstrado que o novo coronavírus não acomete apenas as vias mais distantes do pulmão humano, mas também os fluxos da economia mundializada. Neste artigo analisamos as consequências do novo coronavírus na rede de transporte aéreo no primeiro semestre de 2020 a partir de uma abordagem multiescalar. Os procedimentos metodológicos basearam-se em coleta de dados do fluxo de transporte aéreo e de informações referentes a casos de Covid-19 em localidades selecionadas. As principais bases de dados utilizadas foram a Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil (ANAC), a International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e relatórios de concessionárias de aeroportos. A análise leva a refletir sobre a dependência das corporações, especialmente de grandes companhias aéreas, às ações do Estado e revela um sistema de espoliação (e de pilhagem) ainda mais agressivo e articulado em tempos de crise como essa ocasionada e/ou agravada pela Covid-19. Palavras-chave: Covid-19. Transporte aéreo. Fluidez. Crise econômica. Through the flows and the scales: Covid-19 and its implications for the air transportation network in the 1st semester of 2020Abstract: The health crisis caused by Covid-19 has shown that the new coronavirus affects not only the most distant pathways of the human lung but also the flows of the globalized economy. In this paper, we analyze the consequences of the new coronavirus on the air transportation network in the 1st semester of 2020 in a multiscale approach. The methodological procedures were based on the gathering of air transportation flow data and information related to Covid-19 cases in selected locations. The main databases were the National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC), the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the World Health Organization (WHO), and reports from highway and airport concessionaires. The analysis leads to reflect on the dependence of corporations, especially large airlines, on the actions of the State and reveals a system of exploitation (and looting) even more aggressive and articulated in times of crisis such as that caused and/or aggravated by COVID -19.Keywords: Covid-19. Air Transportation. Fluidity. Economic crisis. Entre flujos y escalas: Covid-19 y sus implicaciones en la red de transporte aéreo en el primer semestre de 2020Resumen: La crisis sanitaria derivada de la Covid-19 ha demostrado que el nuevo coronavirus no solo afecta a las vías más distantes del pulmón humano, sino también a los flujos de la economía globalizada. En este artículo analizamos las consecuencias del nuevo coronavirus en la red de transporte aéreo en el primer semestre de 2020 desde un enfoque multiescalar. Los procedimientos metodológicos se basaron en la recopilación de datos de flujo de transporte aéreo y de información relacionada con los casos de Covid-19 en ubicaciones seleccionadas. Las principales bases de datos utilizadas fueron la Agencia Nacional de Aviación Civil de Brasil (ANAC), la International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y los informes de las concesionarias de aeropuertos. El análisis lleva a reflexionar sobre la dependencia de las corporaciones, especialmente las grandes aerolíneas, a las acciones del Estado y revela un sistema de saqueo aún más agresivo y articulado en tiempos de crisis como esta provocada y/o agravada por el nuevo coronavirus.Palabras clave: Covid-19. Transporte aéreo. Fluidez. Crisis económica.


2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-72
Author(s):  
Luiza Ossowska ◽  
Natalia Bartkowiak-Bakun

The aim of this study is to discuss changes in thepopulation and indicate the main reasons of these changes inrural areas of West Pomeranian voivodeship. The study wasconducted on the local level and based on Central StatisticalOffice data from the years 2010 to 2014. In the first part ofthe research, main demographic information is discussed. Itincludes population density, natural increase per 1000 populationand net migration per 1000 population in rural areasof West Pomeranian voivodeship. In the next part of the research,the average population growth rate was counted in theyears 2011–2014. Based on these changes, researched unitswere divided into four groups – two groups with positivechanges and two groups with negative changes. Subsequently,the main reasons of the changes in population size were analyzedin particular groups including natural increase, migration,population structure by age, level of unemployment andentrepreneurship. All indicators were designated as averagesfrom 2011 to 2014. According to the results in most of the researchunits, the net migration determined the population size.The net migration was characterized by higher absolute valuesthan natural increase. The population size changes are relatedto density. The lowest density areas are more depopulated.Moreover, the population size changes are positive related tothe level of entrepreneurship and negative related to the levelof unemployment.


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