scholarly journals Use of Indigenous knowledge in seasonal weather forecasting in semi-arid central Tanzania

2014 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel F. Elia ◽  
Stephen Mutula ◽  
Christine Stilwell
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous Knowledge ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Seasonal Weather

Non-crop resources and the role of indigenous knowledge in semi-arid production of Mexico

2007 ◽  
Vol 119 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 39-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabelle Blanckaert ◽  
Koenraad Vancraeynest ◽  
Rony L. Swennen ◽  
Francisco J. Espinosa-García ◽  
Daniel Piñero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous Knowledge ◽  
Semi Arid

scholarly journals Designing Multimodel Applications with Surrogate Forecast Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (6) ◽  
pp. 2233-2249
Author(s):  
Leonard A. Smith ◽  
Hailiang Du ◽  
Sarah Higgins
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Mathematical System ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Perfect Model ◽  
Seasonal Weather

Abstract Probabilistic forecasting is common in a wide variety of fields including geoscience, social science, and finance. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple nonlinear forecast systems best “combined”? Assuming stationarity, in the limit of a very large forecast–outcome archive, each model-based probability density function can be weighted to form a “multimodel forecast” that will, in expectation, provide at least as much information as the most informative single model forecast system. If one of the forecast systems yields a probability distribution that reflects the distribution from which the outcome will be drawn, Bayesian model averaging will identify this forecast system as the preferred system in the limit as the number of forecast–outcome pairs goes to infinity. In many applications, like those of seasonal weather forecasting, data are precious; the archive is often limited to fewer than 26 entries. In addition, no perfect model is in hand. It is shown that in this case forming a single “multimodel probabilistic forecast” can be expected to prove misleading. These issues are investigated in the surrogate model (here a forecast system) regime, where using probabilistic forecasts of a simple mathematical system allows many limiting behaviors of forecast systems to be quantified and compared with those under more realistic conditions.

scholarly journals Identifying Barriers and Enablers for Climate Change Adaptation of Farmers in Semi-Arid North-Western China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7494
Author(s):  
Lan Mu ◽  
Lan Fang ◽  
Yuhong Liu ◽  
Chencheng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Western China ◽  
Technological Advancement ◽  
Agricultural Subsidies ◽  
North Western ◽  
Semi Arid

The changing climate represents a large challenge for farmers, and adaptation responses are necessary to minimize impacts. Mixed approaches, which involve the analysis of meteorological data, web-based surveys, and face-to-face interviews, explore producers’ barriers and pressing needs to enhance climate resilience based on the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approach in semi-arid north-western China. According to the main categories of farming activity, 85 crop farmers, 68 animal farmers, and 81 agro-tourism operators were interviewed. We found that most of the producers perceived climate impacts, and they encountered multiple adaptation obstacles, of which institutional and normative obstacles were more serious, such as farmers unable to obtain resources or government incentives, lacked scientific, and efficient coping measures. The survey also observed that crop farmers had a pressing need for agricultural subsidies, while animal farmers and agro-tourism operators had a strong enabler for animal housing infrastructure and credit facilities, respectively. Given the heterogeneity of the context and climate change experience of different categories of farmers, it is necessary to formulate flexible adaptation strategies and adjust them according to specific climate stress and farming conditions. To achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and implement the 2015 Paris Agreement, policymakers should plan and introduce appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the adverse effects of climate change such as improving irrigation and weather forecasting system through technological advancement, cost reduction of farm inputs, ensuring availability of information, providing agricultural subsidies to the farmers, and increasing the access to agricultural markets.

scholarly journals Studies on the Seasonal Weather Forecasting (V, c)

1956 ◽  
Vol 6 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 228-233
Author(s):  
M. Hirose ◽  
M. Okuta ◽  
T. Asakura
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Weather
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