scholarly journals Cyclical Variations in the Duration of Unemployment Spells

2005 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miles Corak
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Work Patterns ◽  
Accelerated Life ◽  
Duration Of Unemployment ◽  
Distributional Assumptions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Spells

The purpose of this paper is to examine one implication of the view that the duration of unemployment is invariant over the course of the business cycle. The data used are derived from the Annual Work Patterns Survey for the years 1978-80 and 1982-85. Accelerated life-time models under a variety of distributional assumptions are used to examine unemployment spells from each year of data.

Consumption, unemployment and the Great Recession

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 724-743
Author(s):  
Joaquín Alegre ◽  
Llorenç Pou
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Job Loss ◽  
Consumption Smoothing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Household Members ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Spells ◽  
Unemployment Persistence

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test whether households with members that experience job loss shocks are able to protect their previous level of consumption. The paper also tests whether consumption protection is affected when spells persist through time. Design/methodology/approach – The paper estimates an intertemporal consumption model, where households try to smooth their marginal utility over time. For that purpose it analyses Spanish household budget surveys that span a long period, 1999-2012, including the Great Recession. Unlike most consumption datasets, this microdata is designed as a panel and provides detailed information for all consumption categories as well as household members’ labour status. Findings – The paper finds that consumption smoothing is dependent on the household member facing the unemployment transition. In particular, only main breadwinner’s unemployment transitions affects consumption smoothing. It also shows that the consumption drop persists beyond the period of the job loss for ongoing spells, although it follows a decreasing pattern. Finally, the estimation results are stable over the business cycle. Practical implications – The results suggest that Spanish households are not capable of fully insuring against main breadwinner’s unemployment shocks. Further, the results show that this effect remains up to two years for ongoing unemployment spells. Thus these results highlight a welfare loss by Spanish households with unemployed members. Originality/value – The paper extends the usual analysis of job loss shocks by the main breadwinner to include the cases of both the spouse and the rest of household members, who tend to account for most unemployment. Further, it tests for unemployment persistence. Finally, it checks the sensitivity of the results to the business cycle, including the Great Recession.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE: SHOULD BENEFIT ENTITLEMENT DURATION REACT TO THE CYCLE?

2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 497-525 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphane Moyen ◽  
Nikolai Stähler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Insurance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Consumption Smoothing ◽  
Unemployment Benefit ◽  
Optimal Duration ◽  
Duration Of Unemployment ◽  
The Business Cycle

The aim of this paper is to study the optimal duration of unemployment benefit entitlement across the business cycle. We analyze whether the entitlement duration should be prolonged in bad and shortened in good times. Because of consumption smoothing, such a countercyclical policy can be welfare-enhancing as long as it does not affect labor market adjustment too severely and/or as long as it can even help to reduce inefficiencies there. If, however, the labor market is already quite inflexible, procyclical behavior may be preferable. In a calibrated dynamic business cycle framework, we find that countercyclical benefit entitlement duration may be preferable in the United States but not in Europe.

Stock Returns and the Business Cycle

CFA Digest ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-43
Author(s):  
Daniel B. Cashion
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
The Business Cycle

EXPANSIONS AND RECESSIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES: A CLASSICAL BUSINESS CYCLES APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Output Measure ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
National Business ◽  
Cycle Indicator

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.

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