scholarly journals Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclones and Monsoons

10.5772/10281 ◽  
2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muni Krishna ◽  
Sai R.Rao
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones

scholarly journals Occurrences of Wintertime Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific under the Background of Global Warming

2009 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 333-338
Author(s):  
He Jie-Lin ◽  
Guan Zhao-Yong ◽  
Qian Dai-Li ◽  
Wan Qi-Lin ◽  
Wang Li-Juan
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific

scholarly journals Summertime precipitation in Hokkaido and Kyushu, Japan in response to global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daichi Takabatake ◽  
Masaru Inatsu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Moisture Flux Convergence

Abstract We analyzed a large ensemble dataset called the database for Policy Decision Making for Future climate change (d4PDF), which contains 60-km resolution atmospheric general circulation model output and 20-km resolution dynamical downscaling for the Japanese domain. The increase in moisture and precipitation, and their global warming response in June–July–August were described focusing on the differences between Hokkaido and Kyushu. The results suggested that the specific humidity increased almost following the Clausius Clapeyron relation, but the change in stationary circulation suppressed the precipitation increase, except for in western Kyushu. The + 4 K climate in Hokkaido would be as hot and humid as the present climate in Kyushu. The circulation change related to the southward shift of the jet stream and an eastward shift of the Bonin high weakened the moisture flux convergence via a stationary field over central Japan including eastern Kyushu. The transient eddy activity counteracted the increase in humidity, so that the moisture flux convergence and precipitation did not change much over Hokkaido. Because the contribution of tropical cyclones to the total precipitation was at most 10%, the decrease in the number of tropical cyclones did not explain the predicted change in precipitation.

Tropical cyclone eyewall thunderstorms as a driver of upper tropospheric water vapor increases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Price ◽  
Tair Plotnik ◽  
Anirban Guha ◽  
Joydeb Saha`
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Maximum Enhancement ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

<p>Tropical cyclones have been observed in recent years to be increasing in intensity due to global warming, and projections for the future are for further shifts to stronger tropical cyclones, while the changes in the number of storms is less certain in the future.  These storms have been shown to exhibit strong lightning activity in the eyewall and rainbands, and some studies (Price et al., 2009) showed that the lightning activity peaks before the maximum intensity of the tropical cyclones.  Now we have investigated the impact of these tropical storms on the upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) content.  Using the ERA5 reanalysis product from the ECMWF center, together with lightning data from the ENTLN network, we show that the lightning activity in tropical cyclones is closely linked to the increase in UTWV above these storms.  We find the maximum enhancement in UTWV occurs between the 100-300 mb pressure levels, with a lag of 0-2 days after the peak of the storm intensity (measured by the maximum sustained winds in the eyewall).  The lightning activity peaks before the storm reaches its maximum intensity, as found in previous studies.  The interest in UTWV concentrations is due to the strong positive feedback that exists between the amounts of UTWV and surface global warming.  Water Vapor is a strong greenhouse gas which is most efficient in trapping in longwave radiation emitted from the Earth in the upper troposphere.  Small changes in UTWV over time can result in strong surface warming.  If tropical cyclones increase in intensity in the future, this will likely result in increases in UTWV, reducing the natural cooling ability of the Earth.  Lightning may be a useful tool to monitor these changes.</p>

Long-Term Trends of Extra-Tropical Cyclones in the Extended ERA5 Reanalysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexia Karwat ◽  
Christian L. E. Franzke ◽  
Richard Blender
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Propagation Speed ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Change Point Analysis ◽  
Systematic Change ◽  
Data Sets

<p>Long-term reanalysis data sets are needed to determine the natural variability of extra-tropical cyclone tracks and for the assessment of the response to global warming. Using a systematic change-point analysis we provide evidence that the pre-satellite ERA5 data of the Backward Extension (ERA5-BE, covering 1950-1978) is highly compatible with the standard ERA5 (1979-2021) data sets. We observe that the joint ERA5 data from 1950 to 2021 is consistent in all storm-related quantities, allowing long-term studies. Despite the high inter-annual variability, a trend analysis suggests that the intensity of extra-tropical cyclones has increased significantly in the Northern Hemisphere from 1950 to 2021. The propagation speed of extra-tropical cyclones has notably decreased and the North Atlantic cyclone track, in particular, has shifted northward. Furthermore, the number of North Pacific storms increased significantly; these storms exhibit longer life cycles and travel larger distances, while they also grow more slowly. From 1979 to 2021 we find increases in wind gusts and cyclone-related precipitation. The central geopotential height, a measure for storminess, has decreased in both storm track areas. The observed changes originating from potential changes in the atmospheric circulation are the result of natural variability and anthropogenic global warming. Future storm adaptation planning should consider the observed increase in storm-related impacts.</p>

scholarly journals Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Emanuel
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Hurricane Intensity ◽  
The Past ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
Special Concern ◽  
Hurricane Forecasting ◽  
Scaling Arguments

Abstract Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties. Here, we review two historical examples of such events and use scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Structures of Extremely Intense Tropical Cyclones Using a 2-km Mesh Nonhydrostatic Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 9986-10005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sachie Kanada ◽  
Akiyoshi Wada ◽  
Masato Sugi
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Central Pressure ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Nonhydrostatic Model ◽  
The Future

Abstract Recent studies have projected that global warming may lead to an increase in the number of extremely intense tropical cyclones. However, how global warming affects the structure of extremely intense tropical cyclones has not been thoroughly examined. This study defines extremely intense tropical cyclones as having a minimum central pressure below 900 hPa and investigates structural changes in the inner core and thereby changes in the intensity in the future climate. A 2-km mesh nonhydrostatic model (NHM2) is used to downscale the 20-km mesh atmospheric general circulation model projection forced with a control scenario and a scenario of twenty-first-century climate change. The eyewall region of extremely intense tropical cyclones simulated by NHM2 becomes relatively smaller and taller in the future climate. The intense near-surface inflow intrudes more inward toward the eye. The heights and the radii of the maximum wind speed significantly decrease and an intense updraft area extends from the lower level around the leading edge of thinner near-surface inflows, where the equivalent potential temperature substantially increases in the future climate. Emanuel’s potential intensity theory suggests that about half of the intensification (increase in central pressure fall) is explained by the changes in the atmospheric environments and sea surface temperature, while the remaining half needs to be explained by other processes. It is suggested that the structural change projected by NHM2, which is significant within a radius of 50 km, is playing an important role in the intensification of extremely intense tropical cyclones in simulations of the future climate.

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