Abstract. Ice cores are one of the most valuable paleo-archives. Records from
ice cores provide information not only about the amount of dust in the
atmosphere, but also about dust sources and their changes in the past. In
2009, a 182 m long ice core was recovered from the western plateau of Mt
Elbrus (5115 m a.s.l.). This record was further extended after a shallow ice
core was drilled in 2013. Here we analyse Ca2+ concentrations, a
commonly used proxy of dust, recorded in these Elbrus ice records over the
time period of 1774–2013 CE. The Ca2+ record reveals quasi-decadal
variability with a generally increasing trend. Using multiple regression
analysis, we found a statistically significant spatial correlation of the
Elbrus Ca2+ summer concentrations with precipitation and soil
moisture content in the Levant region (specifically Syria and Iraq). The
Ca2+ record also correlates with drought indices in North Africa
(r=0.67, p<0.001) and Middle East regions (r=0.71, p<0.001). Dust concentrations prominently increase in the ice core over the
past 200 years, confirming that the recent droughts in the Fertile Crescent
(1998–2012 CE) present the most severe aridity experienced in at least the
past two centuries. For the most recent 33 years recorded (1979–2012 CE),
significant correlations exist between Ca2+ and Pacific circulation
indices (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index and
Niño 4), which suggests that the increased frequency of extreme El
Niño and La Niña events due to a warming climate has extended their
influence to the Middle East. Evidence demonstrates that the increase in
Ca2+ concentration in the ice core cannot be attributed to human
activities, such as coal combustion and cement production.