scholarly journals Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

2013 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 198-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amila Zukanović
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Caries Risk ◽  
Caries Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Caries Prediction

scholarly journals Assessing the Predictive Performance of Probabilistic Caries Risk Assessment Models: The Importance of Calibration

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 258-265
Author(s):  
Mario Trottini ◽  
Guglielmo Campus ◽  
Denise Corridore ◽  
Fabio Cocco ◽  
Maria Grazia Cagetti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Isotonic Regression ◽  
Medical Decision ◽  
Calibration Plot ◽  
Caries Risk ◽  
Caries Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity ◽  
Calibration Methods

Probabilistic caries risk assessment models (P-CRA), such as the Cariogram, are promising tools to planning treatments in order to control and prevent caries. The usefulness of these models for informing patients and medical decision-making depends on 2 properties known as discrimination and calibration. Current common assessment of P-CRA models, however, ignores calibration, and this can be misleading. The aim of this paper was to provide tools for a proper assessment of calibration of the P-CRA models and improve calibration when lacking. A combination of standard calibration tools (calibration plot, calibration in-the-large, and calibration slope) and 3 novel measures of calibration (the Calibration Index and 2 related metrics, E50 and E90) are proposed to evaluate if a P-CRA model is well calibrated. Moreover, an approach was proposed and validated using data from a previous follow-up study performed on children evaluated by means of a reduced Cariogram model; Platt scaling and isotonic regression were applied showing a lack of calibration. The use of the Cariogram overestimates the actual risk of new caries for forecast probabilities <0.5 and underestimates the risk for forecast probabilities >0.6. Both Platt scaling and isotonic regression were able to significantly improve the calibration of the reduced Cariogram model, preserving its discrimination properties. The average specificity and sensitivity for both Platt scaling and isotonic regression using the cut-off point p= 0.5 were >83 and their sum well exceeded 160. The benefits of the proposed calibration methods are promising, but further research in this field is required.

scholarly journals Validation Of Cariogram In Caries Prediction At Woman And Their Children 4 Years After Pregnancy – Longitudinal Study

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivera Dolic ◽  
Marija Obradovic ◽  
Zeljka Kojic ◽  
Natasa Trtic ◽  
Slava Sukara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Caries Risk ◽  
Caries Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Categories ◽  
In Pregnancy ◽  
Caries Prediction

Abstract Background: The Cariogram®, an algorithm based software model, for predicting caries risk has been used to assess the caries risk profile of many different groups. Early childhood caries (ECC) is the most common chronic disease in children below 71 months of age. Identifying children at greatest risk of caries to design appropriate preventive activity has been a goal of the dental profession for many years. The aim of the study was to evaluate Cariogram caries risk assessment during pregnancy with DMFT/dmft incidence at mother and their children 4-years later. Methods: The study population consisted of 96 pregnant women (average age 27.4 years at baseline) that completed clinical baseline examination and salivary tests. A caries risk assessment was made using Cariogram model and according to it, participants were divided into five risk groups. The follow-up study was initiated 4 years later and the 80 pairs of mother and children (from that pregnancy) were re-examined using the same procedure as did at baseline. An individual caries risk profile and DMFT/dmft incidence were made for each woman and child. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for two cut-offs were calculated to express the outcome. Results: There was a strong association between the risk categories of pregnant women and their offspring as well as between caries development in children and the Cariogram risk categories of their mother in pregnancy. Sensitivity and PPV for new DMFT (ΔDMFT > 0) over 4 years for women was high (>80%) for those participants assessed with 0-60% “chance to avoid caries“, as well as diagnostic accuracy (74.00%). High specificity (91.00%), very high PPV (95.00%) and clinically useful values according to Youden’s index (0.53) were obtained for moderate and two lowest risk groups for dmft in children. Conclusions: With the limits of this study, Cariogram model can be useful tool for caries prediction in both groups of woman and their children based on caries risk assessment during pregnancy. The Cariogram was valid and highly predictive in caries risk assessment in children based on caries risk assessment of their mother in pregnancy.

scholarly journals Are standardized caries risk assessment models effective in assessing actual caries status and future caries increment? A systematic review

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Grazia Cagetti ◽  
Giuliana Bontà ◽  
Fabio Cocco ◽  
Peter Lingstrom ◽  
Laura Strohmenger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Caries Risk ◽  
Caries Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Caries Increment

scholarly journals Validation Of Cariogram In Caries Prediction At Woman And Their Children 4 Years After Pregnancy – Longitudinal Randomized Control Study

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivera Dolic ◽  
Marija Obradovic ◽  
Zeljka Kojic ◽  
Natasa Trtic ◽  
Slava Sukara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
High Specificity ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Caries Risk ◽  
Caries Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Categories ◽  
In Pregnancy ◽  
Caries Prediction

Abstract Aim To evaluate Cariogram caries risk assessment during pregnancy with DMFT/dmft incidence at mother and children 4-years later.Background To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to Cariogram for pregnant women with the actual DMFT development after 4-year and the second aim was to validate assessed caries risk at pregnant women according to Cariogram with caries development at their children four years after.Methods The study population consisted of 96 pregnant women (average age 27, 4 years at baseline) that completed clinical baseline examination and salivary tests. A caries risk assessment was made using Cariogram model and according to it, participants were divided into five risk groups. The follow-up study was initiated 4 years later and the 80 pairs of mother and children (from that pregnancy) were re-examined using the same procedure as did at baseline. An individual caries risk profile and DMFT/dmft incidence were made for each woman and child. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for two cut-off were calculated to express the outcome.Results There was a strong association between the risk categories of pregnant women and their offspring as well as between caries development in children and the Cariogram risk categories of their mother in pregnancy. Sensitivity and PPV for new DMFT (ΔDMFT > 0) over 4 years for women was high (>80%) for those participants assessed with 0-60% “chance to avoid caries“, as well as diagnostic accuracy (74.00%). High specificity (91.00%), very high PPV (95.00%) and clinically useful values according to Youden’s index (0.53) were obtained for moderate and two lowest risk groups for dmft in children.Conclusions With the limits of this study, Cariogram was valid and highly predictive in caries risk assessment in children based on caries risk assessment of their mother in pregnancy. The Cariogram model can be useful tool for caries prediction in both groups of woman and their children based on caries risk assessment during pregnancy.

Building Caries Risk Assessment Models for Children

2010 ◽  
Vol 89 (6) ◽  
pp. 637-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
X.-L. Gao ◽  
C.-Y.S. Hsu ◽  
Y. Xu ◽  
H.B. Hwarng ◽  
T. Loh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Caries Risk ◽  
Caries Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Models
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