scholarly journals A World in the Balance: The Economy Towards Recession

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
Giovanni Antonio COSSIGA
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Large River ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Dark Side ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Thing In Itself ◽  
Weak Growth

The global economy is moving uncertainly towards recession. An economy in the balance that remains uncertain on the threshold of recession, relying on the benevolent contribution of support policies. Without the help of fiscal policy and the complacency of the Central Banks through new liquidity injections, and therefore through easy credit, it can certainly be admitted that the recession would tend to prevail. But the recession is not a bad thing in itself, it’s rather the treatment for the evil afflicting the economy: the growing instability of economic systems under the increasing weight of excessive liquidity and an abnormal increase of public and private debt. The result of this negative equation is the growth of the economy sustained by abundant liquidity and credit availability and then a weak and doped development. A development line that cannot go on without the resources of politics. The problem is therefore whether this dependency condition can last. That is, if the economy can find the virtuous energies to reabsorb the accumulated excesses through a sustainable growth. The compulsive use of fiscal policy to fight the damage caused by the serious 2008-2010 crisis has undoubtedly reduced the economic and above all social damage due to the loss of jobs, and therefore helped the recovery. However, the massive use of public debt could hide a dark side. First of all, it fueled a legacy of recessive prices and weak development. And this, despite the large river of liquidity injected into the system by the Central Banks. However, the availability of new liquidity did not defeat the tendency of the economy to deflation and then couldn’t support development, which appears generally weak. The US case, which sees the relaunch of development by the fiscal reform that reduces taxation particularly in favor of higher incomes, doesn’t seem to be an exception. However, we are facing economies that require the continuous support of political policies in order to confirm their (weak) growth. On the other hand, it’s quite clear the dark side created by the trap "liquidity - weak growth" now affecting the global development, although without this trick the world in the balance could fall into recession.

scholarly journals SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF BELEXLINE AND BELEX15 MOVEMENTS

2020 ◽  
pp. 087
Author(s):  
Milena Jakšić ◽  
Marina Milanović ◽  
Dragan Stojković
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Basic Hypothesis ◽  
One Year

At the onset of 2019, global economy has been facing a number of macroeconomic issues, which significantly multiplied in the course of the past ten-year period. Slow-moving rate of economic growth, increased fiscal deficits, enormous public and private debt – these are just some of the issues which led to the plunge of the leading stock market indices at the end of 2018. Bearing in mind that S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ Composite stopped the multiannual growth trend which started on March 22, 2009, new quakes on the global financial market may well be expected. Unlike developed global stock markets, which hugely recovered from the 2008 crash, the Belgrade Stock Exchange showed no significant growth trend in the observed period. In this respect, regardless of the detected declines of the world’s best known stock market indices, it is not realistic to expect any significant change in the Belgrade Stock Exchange share market, which the conducted empirical research should confirm. The basic goal of the research is to establish the monthly tendencies of BELEXline and BELEX15 movements in the forthcoming one-year period. The basic hypothesis of the research is that there will be no significant changes in the movement of the values of selected stock market indicators in the Belgrade Stock Exchange share market during the one-year period to come. 

scholarly journals Financing Growth through Remittances and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidences from Balkan Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
Esmeralda Jushi ◽  
Eglantina Hysa ◽  
Arjona Cela ◽  
Mirela Panait ◽  
Marian Catalin Voica
Keyword(s):  
Developing Economies ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Balkan Countries ◽  
To Come ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
The Impact

The ultimate goal of central banks, worldwide, is to promote the foundations for sustainable economic growth. In the case of developing economies, in particular, such objective requires time, huge efforts, attention, and plenty of resources in order to be accomplished to the fullest degree. This paper thoroughly investigates key factors affecting Balkan countries’ economic development (as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) growth), focusing especially on the impact of remittances. The analysis was done over an 18-year time interval (2000–2017) and builds on 144 observations. The data figures were retrieved from the World Bank database while two dummies were created to test the impact of the last financial crisis (2008–2012). Econometric tools were employed to carry out a broad analysis on the interdependencies that exist and, in particular, to determine the role of remittance income on growth. The vector auto regressive model was estimated using EViews software, and was used to come up with relevant insights. Empirical findings suggest the following: population growth, remittances, and labor force participation are insignificant factors for sustainable growth. On the other hand, previous levels of GDP, trade, and foreign direct investments (FDIs) appear to be relevant for the predictor. This research provides up-to-date conclusions, which can be considered during the decision-making process of central banks, as well as by government policymakers.

INVITED POLICY ECONOMICS PAPER — ECONOMICS IN ASIA 1995–2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
JOERGEN OERSTROEM MOELLER
Keyword(s):  
Market Economy ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The Us ◽  
Anglo American ◽  
Asian Economy

Over the last 25 years, Asia’s economic rise has been extraordinary. Its share of global gross domestic product (GDP) has risen from 5.8% to 22.9%. 1 The first phase of high economic growth — up to 1995 — saw Asia enter the global supply chain primarily with labor-intensive/low-cost manufacturing. Domestic consumption was a fairly low share of GDP; Asia was manufacturing mainly for consumption in the US and Europe. As such, it was primarily a rule-taker. In the second phase — from 1995 to 2020 — it gradually turned into an economic force joining the US and Europe in shaping the global economy, exercising significant influence upon the value chain, the cycles of the global economy, transport and logistics, the global capital markets and consumption patterns (consumer preferences and tastes). While not yet among the leading rule-makers, it had become difficult for policymakers (public and private) to make decisions without Asia’s consent. To form an opinion of today’s emerging third phase — post 2020 — the intriguing question is whether the Asian countries have adopted what may be termed Anglo-American economic thinking (basically, the primacy of the market). Or whether behind the curtain, the Asian economy works in its own way diverging from the American and British economic schools. Since demographics and sheer economic scale mean that Asia will dominate the global economy in the years to come, the nature of the Asian economy will be of crucial importance for the future global economy. The conclusion of this paper is that “Asia” in many respects differs — and fundamentally so — from market economy principles. How this prospect should be interpreted is also evolving, as circumstances change. Certainly, the repercussions of COVID-19 have not been the same in the US, Europe, East Asia and South Asia — and this may suggest that socio-political structures have a stronger impact on economic outcomes than economic theory teaches, thus calling into question the global validity of market economy principles.

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