scholarly journals International Co-movements and Business Cycles Synchronization Among Advanced Economies: A SPBVAR Evidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Pacifico

This paper provides new empirical insights in order to give a relevant contribution to the more recent literature on international transmission of shocks and on business cycles synchronization across developed economies, with a particular emphasis in the most recent recession and post-crisis consolidation. Interdependence, commonality and heterogeneity in macroeconomic-financial linkages are also identified in order to depict the perplexed nature of modern economies. A time-varying Structural Panel Bayesian Vector Autoregression (SPBVAR) model is developed to deal with model misspecification and unobserved heterogeneity problems when studying multicountry dynamic panels. The results argue for significant synchronization behind a relevant consolidation without delay. Additionally, consolidation is needed to underpin confidence in fiscal solvency at the country level and prevent adverse international externalities. My evidence calls for more integrated macroprudential and financial stability policies. It also shows that, when formulating policies or forecasting, additional transmission channels and economic-institutional issues through which fiscal contractions influence the dynamics of the GDP growth need to be accounted for in muticountry setups.

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Antonio Pacifico

This paper provides new empirical insights in order to give a relevant contribution to the more recent literature on international transmission of shocks and on business cycles synchronization across developed economies, with a particular emphasis in the most recent recession and post-crisis consolidation. Interdependence, commonality and heterogeneity in macroeconomic-financial linkages are also identified in order to depict the perplexed nature of modern economies. A time-varying Structural Panel Bayesian Vector Autoregression (SPBVAR) model is developed to deal with model misspecification and unobserved heterogeneity problems when studying multicountry dynamic panels. The results argue for significant synchronization behind a relevant consolidation without delay. Additionally, consolidation is needed to underpin confidence in fiscal solvency at the country level and prevent adverse international externalities. My evidence calls for more integrated macroprudential and financial stability policies. It also shows that, when formulating policies or forecasting, additional transmission channels and economic-institutional issues through which fiscal contractions influence the dynamics of the GDP growth need to be accounted for in muticountry setups.


Econometrics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Pacifico

This paper provides an overview of a time-varying Structural Panel Bayesian Vector Autoregression model that deals with model misspecification and unobserved heterogeneity problems in applied macroeconomic analyses when studying time-varying relationships and dynamic interdependencies among countries and variables. I discuss what its distinctive features are, what it is used for, and how it can be analytically derived. I also describe how it is estimated and how structural spillovers and shock identification are performed. The model is empirically applied to a set of developed European economies to illustrate the functioning and the ability of the model. The paper also discusses more recent studies that have used multivariate dynamic macro-panels to evaluate idiosyncratic business cycles, policy-making, and spillover effects among different sectors and countries.


Barely two decades after the Asian financial crisis Asia was suddenly confronted with multiple challenges originating outside the region: the 2008 global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and, finally developed economies’ implementation of unconventional monetary policies. Especially the implementation of quantitative easing (QE), ultra-low interest rate policies, and negative interest rate policies by a number of large central banks has given rise to concerns over financial stability and international capital flows. One of the regions most profoundly affected by the crisis was Asia due to its high dependence on international trade and international financial linkages. The objective of this book is to explain how macroeconomic shocks stemming from the global financial crisis and recent unconventional monetary policies in developed economies have affected macroeconomic and financial stability in emerging markets, with a particular focus on Asia. In particular, the book covers the following thematic areas: (i) the spillover effects of macroeconomic shocks on financial markets and flows in emerging economies; (ii) the impact of recent macroeconomic shocks on real economies in emerging markets; and (iii) key challenges for the monetary, exchange rate, trade, and macroprudential policies of developing economies, especially Asian economies, and suggestions and recommendations to increase resiliency against external shocks.


Author(s):  
Irina Ervits

AbstractIn light of the growing economic might and intensification of global activities of Chinese multinational enterprises (MNE), this paper looks into the nature of their corporate social responsibility (CSR) reporting. CSR communications of the largest Chinese companies and their counterparts from advanced economies have been compared based on quantitative and qualitative content analysis of CSR reports. A mixed method approach has been rarely utilized in the analysis of CSR reporting. To analyze CSR reports the paper uses a two-dimensional conceptual framework based on Wood (Acad Manag Rev 16:691–717, 1991); Jamali and Mirshak (J Bus Ethics 72:243–262, 2007) and Lockett, Moon and Visser (J Manag Stud 43:115–136, 2006); Moon and Shen (J Bus Ethics 94:613–629, 2010). The findings indicate that quantitatively Chinese MNEs display patterns of CSR reporting comparable to major MNEs in developed economies. This paper argues that just like MNEs from developed economies Chinese MNEs use a global CSR reporting template as a convenient tool to align and harmonize various isomorphic pressures. However, qualitatively substantive discrepancies in content have been also identified due to national or other contextual characteristics. The analysis reveals a complex picture of national and international isomorphic forces at play. The paper addresses the lack of consensus concerning convergence/divergence of CSR reporting across the globe and, more specifically, between developed economies and emerging markets. In this respect this paper responds to the general call for research looking into various aspects of business operations, including CSR reporting, of MNEs from emerging markets.


There has been a long-standing debate about the pros and cons of two modes of financial regulation: command and control and self-regulation. These two regulatory modes have been favored by policy-makers and the dominant regulatory theories for decades in developed economies such as US, UK, and Australia. The design of financial regulations, consequently, has oscillated between these two modes during the pre-deregulation and financial deregulation periods in those developed economies. However, a third regulatory approach aimed at maintaining financial stability, which is the vital issue during post-GFC period, is introduced to policy-makers and a broad swath of other constituencies in this chapter.


2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 212-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koyin Chang ◽  
Yoonbai Kim ◽  
Marc Tomljanovich ◽  
Yung-Hsiang Ying

Author(s):  
Alex Cukierman

The first CBs were private institutions that were given a monopoly over the issuance of currency by government in return for help in financing the budget and adherence to the rules of the gold standard. Under this standard the price of gold in terms of currency was fixed and the CB could issue or retire domestic currency only in line with gold inflows or outflows. Due to the scarcity of gold this system assured price stability as long as it functioned. Wars and depressions led to the replacement of the gold standard by the more flexible gold exchange standard. Along with restrictions on international capital flows this standard became a major pillar of the post–WWII Bretton Woods system. Under this system the U.S. dollar (USD) was pegged to gold, and other countries’ exchange rates were pegged to the USD. In many developing economies CBs functioned as governmental development banks.Following the world inflation of the 1970s and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, eradication of inflation gradually became the explicit number one priority of CBs. The hyperinflationary experiences of the first half of the 20th century, which were mainly caused by over-utilization of the printing press to finance budgetary expenditures, convinced policymakers in developed economies, following Germany’s lead, that the conduct of monetary policy should be delegated to instrument independent CBs, that governments should be prohibited from borrowing from them, and that the main goal of the CB should be price stability. During the late 1980s and the 1990s numerous CBs obtained instrument independence and started to operate on inflation targeting systems. Under this system the CB is expected to use interest rate policy to deliver a low inflation rate in the long run and to stabilize fluctuations in economic activity in the short and medium terms. In parallel the fixed exchange rates of the Bretton Woods system were replaced by flexible rates or dirty floats. The conjunction of more flexible rates and IT effectively moved the control over exchange rates from governments to CBs.The global financial crisis reminded policymakers that, of all public institutions, the CB has a comparative advantage in swiftly preventing the crisis from becoming a generalized panic that would seriously cripple the financial system. The crisis precipitated the financial stability motive into the forefront of CBs’ policy concerns and revived the explicit recognition of the lender of last resort function of the CB in the face of shocks to the financial system. Although the financial stability objective appeared in CBs’ charters, along with the price stability objective, also prior to the crisis, the crisis highlighted the critical importance of the supervisory and regulatory functions of CBs and other regulators. An important lesson from the crisis was that micro-prudential supervision and regulation should be supplemented with macro-prudential regulation and that the CB is the choice institution to perform this function. The crisis led CBs of major developed economies to reduce their policy rates to zero (and even to negative values in some cases) and to engage in large-scale asset purchases that bloat their balance sheets to this day. It also induced CBs of small open economies to supplement their interest rate policies with occasional foreign exchange interventions.


2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (04) ◽  
pp. 1250019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Carrieri ◽  
Vihang Errunza ◽  
Sergei Sarkissian

We study the dynamics of gains from sectoral versus geographic diversification and relate economic sources to changes in those gains. We estimate conditional correlations between returns on the US equity market and 16 equity markets and 10 local industries from other OECD countries and find that the average correlation across countries has increased in relation to that across industries. We also show that this process is accompanied by increased alignment in the industrial structures across countries and an increase in the average conditional correlation of aggregate production growth across countries relative to that of disaggregated production growth, especially among developed economies. Thus, the increased benefits of industry-level investing across developed markets are reflected in the real side of the global economy. However, country-level investing should remain the predominant asset allocation approach in emerging markets.


Ekonomika ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 93 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-56
Author(s):  
Birutė Visokavičienė

Abstract. The main goal of the research is to develop monetary policy tools and measures enabling to achieve macroeconomic goals of integration into the euro area in the immediate future. It is noted that until the introduction of the euro Lithuania does not have a monetary policy and applies the currency board regime pegging the litas invariably to the euro (hard peg regime). Therefore, it is not only difficult but also risky to try to achieve financial and economic stability in accordance with the relevant Maastricht criteria through fiscal policy measures alone. Monetary policy instruments are necessary to achieve price stability and the overall financial stability. Currently, Lithuania should address the problem of balancing the currency board regime and the Maastricht criteria as a macroeconomic objective through monetary policy tools and measures.The analysis of monetary policies of advanced economies and, first of all, of the euro area reveals the main features of transmission of the monetary policy to a real economy, which can contribute to the successful integration into the euro area. A systemic analysis of the monetary policy is based on monetary and economic theories, laws and patterns, scientific literature and empirical studies. The method used is the logical analysis and systemising of academic literature and modelling of the monetary policy. Such a methodological position enables the justification of the influence of the euro and monetary policy on the future development of the national economy.Key words: monetary policy, euro, exchange rate, inflation, indicators


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