Estimation of the Impact of Comprehensive COVID-19 Testing in South Korea: A Cost-Benefit Analysis Using the Extended SEIR Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 141-168
Author(s):  
Kilkon Ko ◽  
Minjun Hong
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Financial Burden ◽  
Diagnostic Testing ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Net Benefits ◽  
Costbenefit Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Comprehensive COVID-19 diagnostic testing is regarded as a critical in preventing the spread of the virus, but only a few studies thus far have sought to assess the net benefits that sustained testing might offer, despite the importance accorded by researchers to evidence-based policy making. We performed a costbenefit analysis using the extended SEIR model to assess whether maintaining the current level of COVID-19 testing is an economically rational choice compared with counterfactual scenarios. Our results suggest that the relationship between the net benefits and the level of testing assumes an inverted-U shape, which means that comprehensive diagnostic testing is effective in flattening the infection curve, but it is a financial burden to society. This study provides evidence that comprehensive diagnostic testing would not be a good strategy for countries with scant financial and medical resources, considering the costs. Furthermore, undertaking comprehensive diagnostic testing without implementing other strategies is a limited approach to preventing the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore, this study suggests that policy makers should find ways to improve the effectiveness of tests, not just increase the level of tests.

The Determinants of Program Success and Failure

1981 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 433-464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold Wolman
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Evaluation Research ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Program Performance ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Program Success ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTRecent social science research – particularly evaluation research and cost-benefit analysis – has produced a substantial and very useful literature on the impact of public policy and on the relationship of program inputs to outputs and outcomes. However, the explicit focus of these analytic techniques on impacts and outcomes does not systematically yield useful information on why programs have been successes or failures. Policy-makers faced with an evaluation of program success or failure obviously need to know something about the why question if they are to make needed adjustments in the program or carry the lessons of one program to other areas. This article attempts to present a comprehensive framework for explaining and understanding program performance. It is meant to have two uses and to serve two clienteles. First, it presents for social scientists a set of research questions to guide research into the determinants of program performance. Second, it provides public policy-makers with a set of action questions which should be asked and answered appropriately in the actual formulating and carrying out of public policy, as a means of enhancing the chances of program success. The framework is divided into two parts, the formulating process and the carrying out process, although these two processes may overlap considerably, both in time and in terms of substantive concerns. Program success may be impeded by problems or inadequacies in one or more of the components in either the formulating stage or the carrying out stage or in both.

scholarly journals A cost-benefit analysis of Tulsa’s IDA program

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 263-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H. Greenberg
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Individual Development ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Net Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Benefits And Costs ◽  
Observation Period

This article presents findings from a cost-benefit analysis of the Tulsa Individual Development Account (IDA) program, a demonstration program that was initiated in the late 1990s and is being evaluated through random assignment. The program put particular emphasis on using savings subsidies to help participants accumulate housing assets. The key follow-up data used in the evaluation was collected around 10 years after random assignment, about 6 years after the program ended. The results imply that, during this 10-year observation period, program participants gained from the program and that the program resulted in net costs to the government and private donors, and that society as a whole was probably worse off as a consequence of the program. The article examines in some detail whether these findings are robust to a number of different considerations, including the assumptions upon which the results depend, uncertainly reflected by the standard errors of the impact estimates used to derive the benefits and costs, and omitted benefits and costs, and concludes that they are essentially robust. For example, a Monte Carlo analysis suggests that the probability that the societal net benefits of the Tulsa program were negative during the observation period is over 90% and that the probability that the loss to society exceeded $1000 is 80%. Further analysis considered benefits and costs that might occur beyond the observation period. Based on this analysis, it appeared plausible, although far from certain, that the societal net benefits of the Tulsa program could eventually become positive. This would occur if the program’s apparent positive net impact on educational attainment generates substantial positive effects on the earnings of program participants after the observation period ended. However, there was no evidence that the educational impacts had yet begun to produce positive effects on earnings by the end of the observation period.

An Analytical Approach to Cruise Tourism As an Option For Development: a Case Study of the Sultanate of Oman

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-109
Author(s):  
Heba Aziz ◽  
Osman El-Said ◽  
Marike Bontenbal
Keyword(s):  
Capital City ◽  
Sultanate Of Oman ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Cruise Tourism ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Average Expenditure ◽  
Return Intention

The objective of this study was to measure the level of cruise tourists' satisfaction as well as the relationship between satisfaction, recommendation, return intention, and expenditure. Also, the impact of factors such as nationality, length of the visit, and age on the level of expenditure was measured. An empirical approach for data collection was followed and a total of 152 questionnaires were collected from cruise tourists visiting the capital city of Oman, Muscat, as cruise liners anchor at Sultan Qaboos Port. Results of the regression analysis supported the existence of a causal relationship between satisfaction with destination attributes, overall satisfaction, recommendation, return intention, and expenditure. It was found that the average expenditure varies according to age and length of the visit. Recommendations for policy makers were suggested on how to increase the role of cruise tourism in strengthening the economy.

Application of a Tax to E-Commerce Deliveries in Barcelona

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110124
Author(s):  
Genís Majoral ◽  
Francesc Gasparín ◽  
Sergi Saurí
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Positive Outcomes ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Last Mile ◽  
The Impact

The number of e-commerce transactions is increasing worldwide. Deliveries of goods purchased online generate externalities throughout the whole supply chain and, particularly, the increasing concern about the last-mile distribution of goods. The escalating presence of vans in cities contributes to poor air quality, climate change, noise, and congestion. So far, the majority of solutions to address this issue are based on the supply side, such as electric vans, optimizing the routing and pick-up-points, and so forth. Even in other transport sectors, pricing solutions are well known, yet they have not been extended to e-commerce delivery. This paper aims to propose an environmental tax falling on the demand side and equaling the externalities from this activity. The analysis has been particularized for the case of Barcelona. A cost–benefit analysis to assess the impact of such a tax has been carried out. When revenue collection is reinvested in the logistics sector, and for subsidizing electric distribution vehicles, the results indicate that the levying of the tax can generate positive outcomes.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of rapid diagnostic tests on Plasmodium vivax malaria in South Korea: a cost–benefit analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. e004292
Author(s):  
Jung Ho Kim ◽  
Jiyeon Suh ◽  
Woon Ji Lee ◽  
Heun Choi ◽  
Jong-Dae Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Plasmodium Vivax ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
Rapid Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundRapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are widely used for diagnosing Plasmodium vivax malaria, especially in resource-limited countries. However, the impact of RDTs on P. vivax malaria incidence and national medical costs has not been evaluated. We assessed the impact of RDT implementation on P. vivax malaria incidence and overall medical expenditures in South Korea and performed a cost–benefit analysis from the payer’s perspective.MethodsWe developed a dynamic compartmental model for P. vivax malaria transmission in South Korea using delay differential equations. Long latency and seasonality were incorporated into the model, which was calibrated to civilian malaria incidences during 2014–2018. We then estimated averted malaria cases and total medical costs from two diagnostic scenarios: microscopy only and both microscopy and RDTs. Medical costs were extracted based on data from a hospital in an at-risk area for P. vivax malaria and were validated using Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service data. We conducted a cost–benefit analysis of RDTs using the incremental benefit:cost ratio (IBCR) considering only medical costs and performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis to reflect the uncertainties of model parameters, costs and benefits.ResultsThe results showed that 55.3% of new P. vivax malaria cases were averted, and $696 214 in medical costs was saved over 10 years after RDT introduction. The estimated IBCR was 2.5, indicating that RDT implementation was beneficial, compared with microscopy alone. The IBCR was sensitive to the diagnosis time reduction, infectious period and short latency period, and provided beneficial results in a benefit over $10.6 or RDT cost under $39.7.ConclusionsThe model simulation suggested that RDTs could significantly reduce P. vivax malaria incidence and medical costs. Moreover, cost–benefit analysis demonstrated that the introduction of RDTs was beneficial over microscopy alone. These results support the need for widespread adoption of RDTs.

scholarly journals CHANGES IN THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT FAMILY 2003–2014: IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSIDERING ACHIEVEMENTS, GAPS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
pp. 1550003 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANK VANCLAY
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Public Involvement ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Social Risk ◽  
Proportional Change ◽  
The Impact

Over 150 forms of impact assessment can be identified using Google searches, with several new forms appearing since 2003. Since then, the popularity of the various members of the impact assessment family has changed, partly in response to legislative and regulatory changes, and general trends in society. The information explosion and expansion of the internet has resulted in a 32 fold increase in the number of hits for "impact assessment", now over 12 million. The conventional methods most frequently mentioned in 2003 had relatively low proportional change over the last 10 years but remain amongst the most frequently mentioned in 2014: risk assessment, public participation, cost-benefit analysis, public involvement, environmental monitoring, and project evaluation. The terms with highest proportional change (i.e. the super-hot topics) were primarily social concerns, including: equality impact assessment, welfare impact assessment, mental health impact assessment, disability impact assessment, human impact assessment, social impact assessment, and social risk assessment. Other terms that had high proportional change included life cycle impact assessment. Information about the relative popularity of the various forms of impact assessment is used in this paper to discuss issues and trends in the broad field of impact assessment.

Drug costs and treatment choices: a DTB symposium

1993 ◽  
Vol 31 (11) ◽  
pp. 41-44
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Health Benefit ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Drug Costs ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Treatment Choices ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Service Managers

The relationship between drug costs and treatment choices was the subject of the first annual Drug and Therapeutics Bulletin symposium held in March 1993.* In a time of severe financial constraints for the NHS it is important that the money available is well spent. In the case of treatment that means the benefits must be worth the cost. There is, however, no agreed way of deciding when a particular health benefit to an individual is worth the cost to the NHS. Drug prices are easier to measure and more consistent than the prices of other treatments, and may be more amenable to cost-benefit analysis. Treatment choices are made primarily by doctors but with critical input from patients, pharmacists, nurses and health service managers. In this article we give an overview of the symposium at which speakers described ways in which drug costs and treatment choices were tackled in general practice (Ann McPherson, John Howie), in hospital (Dorothy Anderson), in clinical research and audit (Iain Chalmers, Alison Frater), by consumers (Anna Bradley), by health economists (Mike Drummond) and by government (Joe Collier). We also take into account points raised in discussion by the participants.

Yamuna Action Plan-III: Impact on Water Quality of River Yamuna, India

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Ankit Srivastava ◽  
Prathna T.C.
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Pollutant Load ◽  
River Ganges ◽  
The World ◽  
River Yamuna ◽  
The Impact

Water is indispensable to sustain life and livelihood, and rivers serve as major reservoirs of water in manyparts of the world. River Yamuna is the major tributary of the River Ganges in India and is considered to be among the most polluted rivers of the world. The Yamuna Action Plan (YAP) is one of the largest river restoration projects in India and is initiated to clean the river. YAP is a bilateral arrangement between the governments of India and Japan, and consists of three Actions Plans-I, II and III. YAP-III is currently under execution with some of the major projects being the construction of the new Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) at Okhla, rehabilitation and upgrading of WWTPs at Kondli and Rithala in the Delhi region. The impact of YAP-III with regard to these major projects on the reduction of the pollutant load reaching the river and cost-benefit has been evaluated in the current study. Findings from the study indicated that major projects such as construction of a new WWTP at Okhla (124 MGD) can effectively reduce the pollutant load by 283 kg/MGD of wastewater at a cost of Rs. 1161 crores while the rehabilitation project at Rithala (Phase I) can reduce the pollutant load by 92.5 kg/MGD wastewater at a cost of Rs. 300 crores. The present study indicates the need to evaluate projects in terms of cost-benefit analysis in addition to the economic and environmental evaluation for effective action. A holistic approach towards treatment of pollutant load in the river and prevention of further pollutants from reaching the river is required in addition to community awareness and participation for sustainable river water management.

Citizens–experts’ interactions under different institutional arrangements: assessing the role of uncertainty, interests, and values

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 861-879
Author(s):  
Francesco Bogliacino ◽  
Cristiano Codagnone ◽  
Giuseppe Alessandro Veltri
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Value Conflicts ◽  
Normative Criterion ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Deliberative Governance

AbstractIn this paper, we develop a framework to analyze the relationship between evidence and policy. Postulating a normative criterion based on cost–benefit analysis and the value of a piece of information, as well as a topology of the policy space defined by three characteristics (epistemic uncertainty, interests, and the degree of value conflicts), we identify the (Nash) equilibria of an interaction between experts and citizens in providing information to a decision maker. In this setup, we study three institutional arrangements (evidence-based policy, deliberative governance, and negotiated conflict) that differ in terms of reliance on experts and citizens for providing information. We show that different degrees of uncertainty, interests, and value-relevance surrounding the issue at stake result in vastly different arrangement performances; hence, to foster efficiency, rules should be contingent.

scholarly journals Unlocking Household Electricity Consumption in Pakistan

Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 566
Author(s):  
Khuram Pervez Amber ◽  
Rizwan Ahmad ◽  
Mina Farmanbar ◽  
Muhammad Anser Bashir ◽  
Sajid Mehmood ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Supply ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Residential Sector ◽  
Average Family Size ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Conclusion Section ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In Pakistan, data for household electricity consumption are available in the form of monthly electricity bills only, and, therefore, are not helpful in establishing appliance-wise consumption. Further, it does not help in establishing the relationship among the household electricity consumption and various driving factors. This study aimed to unlock the household electricity consumption in Pakistan by analyzing electricity bills and investigating the impact of various socioeconomic, demographic, and dwelling parameters and usage of different appliances. The methodology adopted in this study was survey-based data collection of the residential sector. For this purpose, data were collected from 523 dwellings through surveys and interviews in Mirpur city. The results of the data analysis revealed that the average household electricity consumption is 2469 kWh/year with an average family size of seven and an average floor area of 78.91 m2. Based on possession of various appliances, the households were categorized into four types and their consumption patterns were established and compared. Air Conditioned (AC) houses consume 44% more electricity compared to the non-AC houses, whereas an Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) consumes electricity equivalent to an AC. The research findings are useful for policy makers and building designers and are discussed in the conclusion section.

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