scholarly journals A Regime-Switching Analysis of the Impact of Oil Price Changes on the Economies of U.S. States

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Kang ◽  
David A. Penn ◽  
Joachim Zietz
Keyword(s):  
Regime Switching ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Industry Stock Returns: Evidence from International Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Elias Randjbaran ◽  
Reza Tahmoorespour ◽  
Marjan Rezvani ◽  
Meysam Safari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Food And Beverage ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of oil price variation on 14 industries in six markets, including Canada, China, France, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Panel weekly data were collected from June 1998 to December 2011. The results indicate that price fluctuations primarily affect the Oil and Gas as well as the Mining industries and have the least influence on the Food and Beverage industry. Furthermore, in three out of six of these countries (Canada, France, and the U.K.), oil price changes negatively affect the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industry. One possible reason for the negative relationship between oil price changes and the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industries in the above-mentioned countries is that the governments of these countries fund their healthcare systems. Portfolio managers and investors will find the results of this study useful because it enables adjusting portfolios based on knowledge of the industries that are impacted the most or the least by oil price fluctuations.

DAMPAK VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENYESUAIAN KESEIMBANGAN FISKAL

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Mahpud Sujai
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
The State ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Budget Cycle ◽  
Actual Output ◽  
The Impact

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.

The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 730-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of oil price changes on output and inflation for the case of Turkey using monthly time series data for the period 1990:1–2012:3. Recent studies suggest that oil price changes may have asymmetric effects on the macroeconomic variables. To account for asymmetric effects, we decompose oil price changes into positive and negative parts following Hamilton (1996). Our results show that while oil price increases have clear negative effects on output growth, the impact of oil price decline is insignificant. Similarly, oil price increases have positive and significant effects on inflation. However, oil price declines have not a significant effect on inflation. The Granger causality tests also support these results.

scholarly journals The impact of oil price changes on efficiency of banks: An application in the Middle East oil exporting countries using SORM-DEA

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 719-748
Author(s):  
Sepideh Kaffash ◽  
Emel Aktas ◽  
Mohammad Tajik
Keyword(s):  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Bank Efficiency ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents a novel application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to analyze the impact of oil price changes on the efficiency of banks. Factors that affect the efficiency of banks have been of interest to researchers in various geographical regions. With a special focus on oil price changes, we investigate the determinants of bank efficiency in the Middle Eastern Oil-Exporting (MEOE) countries where macro-financial conditions are substantially affected by swings in oil prices. Our analysis consists of two stages: (i) measuring the efficiency scores of banks using the Semi-Oriented Radial Measure (SORM) DEA model, (ii) investigating the impact of alternative indicators of oil prices on the estimated efficiency scores after controlling for key bank-specific and country-specific variables. The analysis is based on an un-balanced panel data of banks operating in the Middle Eastern Oil-Exporting countries over the period of 2001–2011. Our findings reveal that oil price changes affect the efficiency of banks in the MEOE countries through both direct and indirect channels. In addition, we find that Islamic banks in the region are less responsive to oil price changes than commercial and investment banks.

scholarly journals The Impact of Oil Price Changes on Spanish and Euro Area Consumer Price Inflation

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis J. Álvarez ◽  
Samuel Hurtado ◽  
Isabel Sanchez ◽  
Carlos Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Oil price fluctuations and economic growth: the case of MENA countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mamdouh Abdelmoula Mohamed Abdelsalam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to explore the extreme effect of crude oil price fluctuations and its volatility on the economic growth of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It also investigates the asymmetric and dynamic relationship between oil price and economic growth. Further, a separate analysis for each MENA oil-export and oil-import countries is conducted. Furthermore, it studies to what extent the quality of institutions will change the effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth. Design/methodology/approach As the effect of oil price fluctuations is not the same over different business cycles or oil price levels, the paper uses a panel quantile regression approach with other linear models such as fixed effects, random effects and panel generalized method of moments. The panel quantile methodology is an extension of traditional linear models and it has the advantage of exploring the relationship over the different quantiles of the whole distribution. Findings The paper can summarize results as following: changes in oil price and its volatility have an opposite effect for each oil-export and oil-import countries; for the former, changes in oil prices have a positive impact but the volatility a negative effect. While for the latter, changes in oil prices have a negative effect but volatility a positive effect. Further, the impact of oil price changes and their uncertainty are different across different quantiles. Furthermore, there is evidence about the asymmetric effect of the oil price changes on economic growth. Finally, accounting for institutional quality led to a reduction in the impact of oil price changes on economic growth. Originality/value The study concludes more detailed results on the impact of oil prices on gross domestic product growth. Thus, it can be used as a decision-support tool for policymakers.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price on Inflation: An Empirical Study of African OPEC Member Countries

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umar Bala ◽  
Lee Chin
Keyword(s):  
Food Production ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Dynamic Panels ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opec Member ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of oil price changes on inflation in Algeria, Angola, Libya and Nigeria. Three different oil price data were applied in this study; the specific spot oil price of individual countries, the OPEC reference basket oil price and an average of the Brent, WTI and Dubai oil price. The dynamic panels ARDL were used to estimate the short and the long-run impacts. Also, this study partitioned the oil price into positive and negative changes to capture asymmetric impacts and found both positive and negative oil price changes positively influenced inflation. However, the impact was found to be more significant when oil prices dropped. The results from the study also found that money supply, the exchange rate and GDP are positively related to inflation while food production is negatively related to inflation. Accordingly, policymakers should be cautious in formulating policies between the positive and negative changes in oil prices as it was shown that inflation increased when the oil price dropped. Additionally, the use of contractionary monetary policy would help to reduce the inflation rate, and lastly, it is proposed that the government should encourage domestic food production both in quantity and quality to reduce inflation.

scholarly journals Does Institutional Quality Influence the Oil price-economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from African Oil Exporting Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 56-69
Author(s):  
Lucky Tuzuka Musikavanhu ◽  
Jonah B. Tlhalefang ◽  
Mogale Ntsosa ◽  
Malebogo Bakwena
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Interaction Term ◽  
The Impact

The primary contribution of this study is to investigate how institutional quality affects the relationship between the oil price changes and economic growth on net oil exporters in African countries split into net oil exporters and net oil importers. Whether oil price changes are good for the growth patterns of African economies lies on the interaction between oil prices and institutional quality. Oil price increases for oil exporting economies result in increased revenue which will be distributed to economic boosters of the economy however, the net effect of such revenues to the economies solely depends on how institutions distribute the oil rents to the various sectors of the economy. In contrast to the traditional direct effect of oil price changes to economic growth, this study shows that the impact of oil price on economic growth is non-monotonic in institutional quality. Oil exporting economies can benefit from oil price increase if they have good institutions. This has been assessed by including an interaction term, oil price-institutional quality, in the Panel Auto-Regressive (PARDL) using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) model. Such a methodological framework has an added advantage over other model as it allows for modelling of data with different orders of integration. The PMG estimator allows the intercepts, short-run coefficient, and the error variance to differ freely across groups while the long-run coefficients are the same. Using data from 1990 to 2016, it is revealed that the sign of the coefficient interaction is positive and significant as theoretically expected. Furthermore, the coefficient of the interaction term is greater than the coefficient of oil price as anticipated. This would mean that as long as institutional quality is good enough, oil price changes positively influence economic performance on oil exporting economies. As such, the findings of this thesis have important policy implications. Since implementation of quality institutions is an on-going process, the study results suggest that institutions should be strengthened towards economic activities rather than for political mileage.

scholarly journals The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation

2011 ◽  
Vol 28 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 422-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis J. Álvarez ◽  
Samuel Hurtado ◽  
Isabel Sánchez ◽  
Carlos Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
The Impact
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