scholarly journals Estimating poverty in the Italian provinces using small area estimation models

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Quintano ◽  
Rosalia Castellano ◽  
Gennaro Punzo

Sample survey data are broadly used to provide direct estimates of poverty for the whole population and large areas or domains. That is one of the main deficiencies of poverty analysis at a sub-national level (i.e., related either to regions, or provinces). As they are considered very small geographical areas, since the domain-specific sample is not large enough to support direct estimates of adequate precision, they are likely to produce large standard errors, due to the unduly small size of the sample in that area (Ghosh & Rao, 1994). The aim of our paper is to improve the estimation process quality, in terms of efficiency, of some poverty measures for Italian provinces (NUTS3). The adopted approach deals with Area Level Random Effect Model (Fay & Herriot, 1979) which relates small area direct estimators to domain specific covariates, considering the random area effects as independent. Under that model, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP) is obtained. We extend the analysis beyond the conventional measures of income poverty that simply dichotomise the population into the "poor" and the "non poor" by a threshold value and we also consider a fuzzy monetary measure treating poverty as a matter of degree (Cheli & Lemmi, 1995; Cheli, 1995). Through such an analysis, we determine some of the socio-economic factors contributing to poverty levels and living standards, and we investigate in depth the territorial perspective. In order to evaluate the performance of the estimation process through small area models and, consequently, the contribution of auxiliary information to composite poverty estimates, we have defined some outcome measures and some quality indicators (Rao, 2003) have been computed. They allow us to test the extent to which the modelling modifies the input direct estimates and the degree of improvement in the accuracy level of the estimates provided by modelling and, more generally, to evaluate the performance of small area estimators.

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 955-961
Author(s):  
Rizky Zulkarnain ◽  
Dwi Jayanti ◽  
Tri Listianingrum

The increasing needs for more disaggregated data motivates National Statistical Offices (NSOs) to develop efficient methods for producing official statistics without compromising on quality. In Indonesia, regional autonomy requires that Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) indicators are available up to the district level. However, several surveys such as the Indonesian Demographic and Health Survey produce estimates up to the provincial level only. This generates gaps in support for district level policies. Small area estimation (SAE) techniques are often considered as alternatives for overcoming this issue. SAE enables more reliable estimation of the small areas by utilizing auxiliary information from other sources. However, the standard SAE approach has limitations in estimating non-sampled areas. This paper introduces an approach to estimating the non-sampled area random effect by utilizing cluster information. This model is demonstrated via the estimation of contraception prevalence rates at district levels in North Sumatera province. The results showed that small area estimates considering cluster information (SAE-cluster) produce more precise estimates than the direct method. The SAE-cluster approach revises the direct estimates upward or downward. This approach has important implications for improving the quality of disaggregated SDGs indicators without increasing cost. The paper was prepared under the kind mentorship of Professor James J. Cochran, Associate Dean for Research, Prof. of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Alabama.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ammar Ahmed Siddiqui ◽  
Freah Alshammary ◽  
Mushir Mulla ◽  
Saad M. Al-Zubaidi ◽  
Eman Afroze ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundOptimum oral health is impossible to achieve without managing dental caries. The first step to manage dental caries at a community level is to know its prevalence and trend. Unfortunately, the prevalence of dental caries at the national/regional level is not known in many developing countries. Pakistan is no exception. The present meta-analysis was planned to document the prevalence of dental caries at the national, as well as regional level. This paper will serve as a baseline for making future health policies, and health promotion activities in the country.MethodsLiterature was searched through various databases, such as PubMed, SCOPUS, and Web of science using: "Prevalence", "Dental Caries", "Dental Decay" and "Severity" as keywords. Any study that reported the prevalence of dental caries, and was conducted in the Pakistani population was included. Thirty studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Quality assessment of all the included studies was performed using Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal checklist for prevalence studies. MedCalc software was used to analyze the data.ResultsIn total 26952 subjects were included in a meta-analysis from 30 studies. The prevalence estimate of dental caries at the national level was 56.62 % (95% CI: 49.54 to 63.57). The I2 value was 99.07% (95% CI: 98.94 to 99.18), (I2 > 75%) indicating heterogeneity, hence pooled proportion was reported using a random-effect model. The prevalence estimate of dental caries in Sindh was 58.946% (95% CI: 43.796 to 73.274), and in Punjab, it was 55.445% (95% CI: 44.174 to 66.44), whilst in Baluchistan and KPK combined was 51.168% (95% CI: 22.930 to 79.004). ConclusionBased on the existing data nearly 60 % of the Pakistani population have dental caries. The proportion is almost the same in all provinces. Most of the included studies were found to be of high risk.


Author(s):  
Farhad Moradpour ◽  
Ahmad Hajebi ◽  
Masoud Salehi ◽  
Masoud Solaymani-Dodaran ◽  
Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar ◽  
...  

Objective: National surveys revealed a high prevalence of psychiatric disorders in Iran. Province-level estimates are needed to manage the resources and focus on preventive efforts more efficiently. The objective of this study was to provide province-level estimates of psychiatric disorders. Method: In this study, Iranian Mental Health Survey (IranMHS) data (n = 7886) was used to produce province-level prevalence estimates of any psychiatric disorders among 15-64 year old males and females. Psychiatric disorders were diagnosed based on structured diagnostic interview of the Persian version of Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI, version, 2.1). The Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) random effect model was used to calculate the estimates. The mental health status of half of the participants was also measured using a 28-item general health questionnaire (GHQ). Results: A wide variation in the prevalence of psychiatric disorders was found among 31 provinces of Iran. The direct estimates ranged from 3.6% to 62.6%, while the HB estimates ranged from 12.6% to 36.5%. The provincial prevalence among men ranged from 11.9% to 34.5%, while it ranged from 18.4% to 38.8% among women. The Pearson correlation coefficient between HB estimates and GHQ scores was 0.73. Conclusion: The Bayesian small area estimation provides estimation with improved precision at local levels. Detecting high-priority communities with small-area approach could lead to a better distribution of limited facilities and more effective mental health interventions.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumonkanti Das ◽  
Bappi Kumar ◽  
Luthful Alahi Kawsar

AbstractAcute respiratory infection (ARI) and diarrhoea are two major causes of child morbidity and mortality in Bangladesh. National and regional level prevalence of ARI and diarrhoea are calculated from nationwide surveys; however, prevalence at micro-level administrative units (say, district and sub-district) is not possible due to lack of sufficient data. In such case, small area estimation (SAE) methods can be applied by combining a survey data with a census data. Using a SAE method for dichotomous response variable, this study aims to estimate the proportions of under-5 children experienced with ARI and diarrhoea separately as well as either ARI or diarrhoea within a period of two-week preceding the survey. The ARI and diarrhoea information extracted from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2011 are used to develop a random effect logistic model for each of the indicators, and then the prevalence is estimated adapting the World Bank SAE approach for the dichotomous response variable using the 5% data of the Census 2011. The estimated prevalence of each indicator significantly varied by district and sub-district (1.4-11.3% for diarrhoea, 2.2-11.8% for ARI and 4.3-16.5% for ARI/diarrhoea at sub-district level). In a number of districts and sub-district, the proportions are found double the national level. District and sub-district levels spatial distributions of the indicators might help the policy makers to identify the vulnerable disaggregated and remote hotspots. Particularly, aid industries can provide effective interventions at the highly vulnerable spots to overcome the gaps between micro and macro level administrative units.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ammar Ahmed Siddiqui ◽  
Freah Alshammary ◽  
Mushir Mulla ◽  
Saad M. Al-Zubaidi ◽  
Eman Afroze ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Optimum oral health is impossible to achieve without managing dental caries. The first step to manage dental caries at a community level is to know its prevalence and trend. Unfortunately, the prevalence of dental caries at the national/regional level is not known in many developing countries. Pakistan is no exception. The present meta-analysis was planned to document the prevalence of dental caries at the national, as well as regional level. This paper will serve as a baseline for making future health policies, and health promotion activities in the country. Methods Literature was searched through various databases, such as PubMed, SCOPUS, and Web of science using: "Prevalence", "Dental Caries", "Dental Decay" and "Severity" as keywords. Any study that reported the prevalence of dental caries, and was conducted in the Pakistani population was included. Thirty studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Quality assessment of all the included studies was performed using Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal checklist for prevalence studies. MedCalc software was used to analyze the data. Results In total 27,878 subjects were included in a meta-analysis from 30 studies. The prevalence estimate of dental caries at the national level was 56.62% (95% CI: 49.54 to 63.57). The I2 value was 99.07% (95% CI: 98.94 to 99.18), (I2 > 75%) indicating heterogeneity, hence pooled proportion was reported using a random-effect model. The prevalence estimate of dental caries in Sindh was 58.946% (95% CI: 43.796 to 73.274), and in Punjab, it was 55.445% (95% CI: 44.174 to 66.44), whilst in Baluchistan and KPK combined was 51.168% (95% CI: 22.930 to 79.004). Conclusion Based on the existing data nearly 60% of the Pakistani population have dental caries. The proportion is almost the same in all provinces. Most of the included studies were found to be of high risk.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ammar Ahmed Siddiqui ◽  
Freah Alshammary ◽  
Mushir Mulla ◽  
Saad M. Al-Zubaidi ◽  
Eman Afroze ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundOptimum oral health is impossible to achieve without managing dental caries. The first step to manage dental caries at community level is to know its prevalence, and trend. Unfortunately, prevalence of dental caries at national/regional level is not known in many developing countries. Pakistan is of no exception. The present meta-analysis was planned to document prevalence of dental caries at national, as well as regional level. This paper will serve as baseline for making future health policies, and health promotion activities in the country.MethodsLiterature was searched through various databases, such as PubMed, SCOPUS, and Web of science using: "Prevalence", "Dental Caries", "Dental Decay" and "Severity" as keywords. Any study that reported prevalence of dental caries, and was conducted in Pakistani population was included. Thirty studies fulfilled the mentioned criteria, and was included. Quality assessment of all the included studies was performed using Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal checklist for prevalence studies. MedCalc software was used to analyses the data.ResultsIn total 26952 subjects were included in meta-analysis from 30 studies. The prevalence estimate of dental caries at national level was 56.32 % (95% CI: 49.326 to 63.197). The I2 value was 99.07% (95% CI: 98.94 to 99.18), (I2 > 75%) indicating heterogeneity , hence pooled proportion was reported using random effect model. The prevalence estimate of dental caries in Sindh was 58.135% (95% CI: 43.906 to 71.705), and in Punjab it was 53.95% (95% CI: 44.179 to 63.57), whilst in Baluchistan and KPK combined was 51.17% (95% CI: 22.930 to 79.004).ConclusionBased on the existing data nearly 60 % of Pakistani population have dental caries. The proportion is almost same in all provinces. Most of the included studies found to be of high risk.


2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Syazwan Ab Talib ◽  
Lim Rubin ◽  
Vincent Khor Zhengyi

This is a preliminary study developed to explore the determinants of capital structure of Shariah-compliant firms listed in Bursa Malaysia. This study is primarily motivated by the issue of the determinants still being inconclusive in the area of capital structure. The study is performed using the static models namely Pool Ordinary Least Square, Fixed Effect and Random Effect Model. Empirical analysis on the determinants reveals that country specific factor which is GDP and sector specific factor which is industry concentration are also significant in influencing the corporate financing decisions in this country along with firm specific factors such as efficiency, bankruptcy risk, profitability, tangibility, liquidity and size of the firm. The findings revealed that results are sensitive to models employed in the study. Nevertheless, the applicability of capital structure theories such as the trade-off theory, agency theory and pecking order theory diverge across sectors in Malaysia. The pecking order theory and agency theory are found to be the dominant theories governing the corporate financing decision in the country as well. It indicates strong evidence of hierarchy practised in firms’ financing decision. The finding on agency theory being dominant justifies the function of short-term debt as a controlling mechanism to mitigate the agency problem arises within firms across sectors. 


2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-121
Author(s):  
Iwan Wirawardhana ◽  
Meco Sitardja

The aim of this study is to analyse the effect of Blockholder Ownership, Managerial Ownership,Institutional Ownership, and Audit Committee towards Firm Value. The background of this research isthe agency theory and ownership theory. The population in this study are 46 property companies listedon the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2012-2016. By using purposive samplingtechnique, 35 companies are qualified as data samples. This research uses the random effect model asthe estimation model and multiple regression as the method of analysis. The results of this study showsthat Institutional Ownership has a positive effect on Firm Value. Meanwhile, Blockholder Ownership,Managerial Ownership, and Audit Committee have no effect on Firm Value. Moreover, the F-testimplies that the variables, blockholder ownership, managerial ownership, institutional ownership, andaudit committee, simultaneously influence firm value.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shasha Guo ◽  
Qiang Sun ◽  
Xinyang Zhao ◽  
Liyan Shen ◽  
Xuemei Zhen

Abstract Background Antibiotic resistance poses a significant threat to public health globally. Irrational utilization of antibiotics being one of the main reasons of antibiotic resistant. Children as a special group, there's more chance of getting infected. Although most of the infection is viral in etiology, antibiotics still are the most frequently prescribed medications for children. Therefore, high use of antibiotics among children raises concern about the appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing. This systematic review aims to measuring prevalence and risk factors for antibiotic utilization in children in China. Methods English and Chinese databases were searched to identify relevant studies evaluating the prevalence and risk factors for antibiotic utilization in Chinese children (0-18 years), which were published between 2010 and July 2020. A Meta-analysis of prevalence was performed using random effect model. The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) and modified Jadad score was used to assess risk of bias of studies. In addition, we explored the risk factors of antibiotic utilization in Chinese children using qualitative analysis. Results Of 10,075 studies identified, 98 eligible studies were included after excluded duplicated studies. A total of 79 studies reported prevalence and 42 studies reported risk factors for antibiotic utilization in children. The overall prevalence of antibiotic utilization among outpatients and inpatients were 63.8% (35 studies, 95% confidence interval (CI): 55.1-72.4%), and 81.3% (41 studies, 95% CI: 77.3-85.2%), respectively. In addition, the overall prevalence of caregiver’s self-medicating of antibiotics for children at home was 37.8% (4 studies, 95% CI: 7.9-67.6%). The high prevalence of antibiotics was associated with multiple factors, while lacking of skills and knowledge in both physicians and caregivers was the most recognized risk factor, caregivers put pressure on physicians to get antibiotics and self-medicating with antibiotics at home for children also were the main factors attributed to this issue. Conclusion The prevalence of antibiotic utilization in Chinese children is heavy both in hospitals and home. It is important for government to develop more effective strategies to improve the irrational use of antibiotic, especially in rural setting.


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