scholarly journals TAXA DE CONVERSÃO DE POTENCIAIS DOADORES EM DOADORES EFETIVOS NO BRASIL: UMA ANÁLISE TEMPORAL

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Otávio Henrique Bentivoglio de Menezes Pereira ◽  
Beatriz Da Matta Ambrosio ◽  
Douglas Marques de Paula ◽  
Michel Lopes Da Silva ◽  
Larissa Bernardes Araújo Garrido
Keyword(s):  
Joinpoint Regression

Introdução: O advento do transplante de órgãos impactou o cenário epidemiológico de inúmeras afecções que, outrora, eram consideradas fatais. No Brasil, assistiu-se a uma importante evolução tecnológica, logística e informacional referente ao processo de doação e transplante de órgãos. Apesar do avanço, a quantidade de transplantes realizados no Brasil ainda é insuficiente para a quantidade de pessoas que aguardam na fila de espera. Destaca-se a discrepância entre o número de potenciais doadores e a quantidade de doações efetivadas. Objetivos: Analisar a tendência da taxa de conversão de doadores potenciais em efetivos no Brasil, entre 2013 e 2020. Material e métodos: Estudo analítico, observacional, longitudinal e retrospectivo. Obteve-se o número de doadores potenciais e de doadores efetivos a partir do Registro Brasileiro de Transplantes. Calculou-se a taxa de efetivação da doação (TE) para cada 100 potenciais doadores e a tendência da TE ao longo do tempo pela regressão linear segmentada (Joinpoint Regression Program versão 4.7), bem como a variação percentual anual (APC) e seu intervalo de 95% de confiança (IC95%). Resultados: Houve aumento na TE durante todo o período analisado. A variação percentual anual foi de 2% (IC95% = 0,6; 3,4). Não houve joinpoint, ou seja, quebra significativa na tendência apresentada. Os valores variaram de 28,47%, em 2013, a 33,08% em 2019. Em 2020, ano de início dos impactos da pandemia pelo SARS-CoV-2, obteve-se uma taxa de 31,3 doadores efetivos a cada 100 doadores em potencial, configurando-se como a menor TE desde 2016. Conclusão: A análise das taxas de doadores efetivos em relação aos potenciais permite a obtenção de um indicador de saúde. Apesar da manutenção da tendência de crescimento desse marcador, o que decorre, houve um regresso notável na efetivação da doação. O impacto da pandemia de COVID-19, com a paralisação de diversos serviços de saúde, representou um obstáculo para a manutenção da tendência crescente das taxas de efetivação. Nesse contexto, estudos posteriores são necessários para elucidação de outros marcadores úteis para o entendimento do padrão de efetivações cirúrgicas na área dos transplantes.

scholarly journals Trends of Stomach Cancer in Central Serbia

Medicina ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (7) ◽  
pp. 665
Author(s):  
Miodrag M. Stojanovic ◽  
Natasa K. Rancic ◽  
Marija R. Andjelkovic Apostolovic ◽  
Aleksandra M. Ignjatovic ◽  
Mirko V. Ilic
Keyword(s):  
Stomach Cancer ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Optimal Number ◽  
P Value ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Incidence Trend ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

Somach cancer is the third most common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The objective of the paper was to analyze the incidence and mortality trends of stomach cancer in Central Serbia in the period between 1999–2017. Materials and Methods: trends and annual percentage change (APC) of the incidence and mortality rate with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by joinpoint regression analyses. The optimal number of Joinpoints was identified using the Monte Carlo permutation method. The trend was considered to be significantly increasing (positive change) or decreasing (negative change) when the p-value was below 0.05 (p < 0.05). Results: the total number of new cases was 16,914 (10,873 males and 6041 females) and the total number of mortality cases was 14,790 (9348 in and 5442 in females). Almost one third (30.8%) of new cases were registered in the 60–69-year age group, and new cases were significantly more frequent in males than in females (30.8% vs. 29.02%, p < 0.001). Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decrease of incidence trend in females during the 2000–2015 period with APC of −2.13% (95% CI: −3.8 to −0.5, p < 0.001). An insignificant decrease in incidence trend was in males with APC of −0.72% (95% CI: −2.3 to 0.9, p = 0.30). According to the joinpoint analysis, a significant decrease of mortality trends both in males during 2000–2015 with APC of −2.21% (95% CI: −1.6 to −7.5, p ≤ 0.001 and in females, during the same period, with APC of −1.75% (95% CI: −2.9 to −0.6, p < 0.001) was registered. From 2015 to 2017, a significant increase of mortality was registered with APC of 44.5% (95% CI: from 24.2 to −68.1, p ≤ 0.001) in females and in males with APC of 53.15% (95% CI: 13.5 to −106.6, p ≤ 0.001). Conclusion: a significant decrease of stomach cancer incidence trend in females and insignificant decrease of incidence trend in males were determined in Central Serbia. Based on presented results, the mortality trend decreased significantly both in males and in females during 2000–2015, and from 2015 to 2017 we recorded a significant increase in mortality in both sexes. We found significantly more new cases in women than in men in the age group of 40–49, and the mortality of stomach cancer was significantly more frequent among females compared to males in the age groups 30–39, as well as in the 50–59 age group. There is a need for improving recording and registration of new cases of stomach cancer, especially in females. Urgent primary and secondary preventive measures are needed—introducing stomach cancer screening and early detection of premalignant changes. Urgent primary and secondary preventive measures are needed.

scholarly journals Using Joinpoint Regression for the Analysis of Trends in Syphilis Incidence in Poland in the Years 1950–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-18
Author(s):  
Marcin Milewski ◽  
Rafał Milewski ◽  
Gabriela Sokołowska ◽  
Anna Justyna Milewska
Keyword(s):  
Transmitted Disease ◽  
Treponema Pallidum ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Sexual Contact ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Serological Response ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Splitting Time

Abstract Syphilis is a bacterial sexually transmitted disease (STD), whose main route of infection is through sexual contact. In order to diagnose syphilis, Treponema pallidum must be detected in the material sampled from a lesion and a blood test must be performed in order to detect serological response to syphilis. Since 1946, a statutory obligation to report all cases of syphilis has been in force in Poland, which is why data concerning the incidence is available. The aim of this paper is to analyse trends in syphilis incidence in the years 1950–2017 using Joinpoint Regression and to present the impact of prophylaxis and education of society on syphilis prevention. The Joinpoint Regression method indicated the splitting time points of the trend corresponding to real changes in incidence, which corroborates the purpose of using the method in question in epidemiological studies.

scholarly journals Worldwide trends in breast cancer incidence from 1993 to 2012: Age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 98
Author(s):  
Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy ◽  
Sathish Rajaa ◽  
DineshKumar Giriyappa ◽  
Arivarasan Bharathi ◽  
Balachandiran Velmurugan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Breast Cancer Incidence ◽  
Joinpoint Regression

Abstract WMP60: Temporal Trends in Incidence, Prevalence and Epidemiological Characteristics of Cerebral Venous Thrombosis in the United States

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fadar Otite ◽  
Smit Patel ◽  
Richa Sharma ◽  
Pushti Khandwala ◽  
Devashish Desai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cerebral Venous Thrombosis ◽  
The United States ◽  
P Value ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
The Us ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Age And Sex

Background: The primary aim of this study is to describe current trends in racial-, age- and sex-specific incidence, clinical characteristics and burden of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) in the United States (US). Methods: Validated International Classification of Disease codes were used to identify all adult new cases of CVT (n=5,567) in the State Inpatients Database of New York and Florida (2006-2016) and all cases of CVT in the entire US from the National Inpatient Sample 2005-2016 (weighted n=57,315). Incident CVT counts were combined with annual US Census data to compute age and sex-specific incidence of CVT. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate trends in incidence over time. Results: From 2005-2016, 0.47%-0.80% of all strokes in the US were CVTs but this proportion increased by 70.4% over time. Of all CVTs over this period, 66.7% were in females but this proportion declined over time (p<0.001). Pregnancy/puerperium (27.4%) and cancer (11.8%) were the most common risk factors in women, while cancer (19.5%) and central nervous trauma (11.3) were the most common in men. Whereas the prevalence of pregnancy/puerperium declined significantly over time in women, that of cancer, inflammatory conditions and trauma increased over time in both sexes. Annual age and sex-standardized incidence of CVT in cases/million population ranged from 13.9-20.2, but incidence varied significantly by sex (women: 20.3-26.9; men 6.8-16.8) and by age/sex (women 18-44yo: 24.0-32.6%; men: 18-44yo: 5.3-12.8). Age and sex-standardized incidence also differed by race (Blacks:18.6-27.2; whites: 14.3-18.5; Asians: 5.1-13.8). On joinpoint regression, incidence increased across 2006-2016 but most of this increase was driven by increase in all age groups of men (combined annualized percentage change (APC) 9.2%, p-value <0.001), women 45-64 yo (APC 7.8%, p-value <0.001) and women ≥65 yo (APC 7.4%, p-value <0.001). Incidence in women 18-44 yo remained unchanged over time . Conclusion: The epidemiological characteristics of CVT patients in the US is changing. Incidence increased significantly over the last decade. Further studies are needed to determine whether this increase represents a true increase from changing risk factors or artefactual increase from improved detection.

Homicide Epidemic in Cali, Colombia: A Surveillance System Data Analysis, 1993‒2018

2021 ◽  
pp. e1-e8
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Guerrero-Velasco ◽  
Víctor Hugo Muñoz ◽  
Alberto Concha-Eastman ◽  
Álvaro J. Pretel-Meneses ◽  
Maria I. Gutiérrez-Martínez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surveillance System ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Annual Percentage Change ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Homicide Rates ◽  
System Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Age And Sex ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance System

Objectives. To examine homicide rates in Cali, Colombia, during the 1993–2018 period, using information derived from an interagency surveillance system. Methods. We used homicide data from Cali’s Epidemiological Surveillance System to examine homicide trends by victim’s age and sex, time, and type of method used. We estimated trend changes and the annual percentage changes using joinpoint regression analyses. Results. Homicide rates per 100 000 inhabitants dropped from 102 in 1993 to 47.8 in 2018. We observed reductions in homicide rates across age and sex groups. Most homicide victims were men aged 20 to 39 years from poor, marginalized areas. Firearms were used in 84.9% of all cases. The average annual percentage change for the entire period was −3.6 (95% confidence interval = −6.7, −0.4). Conclusions. Fluctuations in homicide rates in Cali show a clear epidemic pattern, occurring concurrently with the “crack epidemic” in different countries. Reliable and timely information provided by an Epidemiological Surveillance System allowed opportune formulation of public policies to reduce the impact of violence in Cali. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print June 10, 2021: e1–e8. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306254 )

scholarly journals Long-Term Trend of Liver Cancer Mortality in Serbia, 1991–2015: An Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Regression Analysis

Healthcare ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 283
Author(s):  
Irena Ilic ◽  
Sandra Sipetic Grujicic ◽  
Jovan Grujicic ◽  
Djordje Radovanovic ◽  
Ivana Zivanovic Macuzic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
The World

Background and Objectives: Trends of liver cancer mortality vary widely around the world. The purpose of this study was to assess the trend of liver cancer mortality in Serbia. Material and Methods: Descriptive epidemiological study design was used in this research. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, per 100,000) were calculated using the direct method, according to the World standard population. Temporal trends were assessed using the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI), according to joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort analysis was used to evaluate the underlying factors for liver cancer mortality trends. Results: In Serbia from 1991 to 2015, over 11,000 men and nearly 8000 women died from liver cancer. The trend in liver cancer mortality significantly decreased both in men (AAPC = −1.3%; 95% CI = −1.7 to −0.9) and women (AAPC = −1.5%; 95% CI = −1.9 to −1.1). For liver cancer mortality, statistically significant cohort and period effects were observed in both genders. Conclusions: The downward trends in liver cancer mortality in Serbia are recorded during the past decades.

scholarly journals Semen quality pattern and age threshold: a retrospective cross-sectional study of 71,623 infertile men in China, between 2011 and 2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
W. N. Li ◽  
M. M. Jia ◽  
Y. Q. Peng ◽  
R. Ding ◽  
L. Q. Fan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Semen Quality ◽  
Sperm Count ◽  
Sperm Concentration ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Semen Parameters ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Progressive Motility ◽  
Infertile Men

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to provide information on the semen quality pattern of infertile men and age thresholds for semen parameters in China. Methods This was a retrospective cross-sectional study investigating 71,623 infertile men from the Reproductive and Genetic Hospital of CITIC Xiangya in Hunan, China, from 2011 to 2017. The Kruskal-Wallis test, Mann-Kendall test, linear regression model and joinpoint regression were used. Results Although erratic changes were observed in the median semen parameters (sperm concentration 40.1–52.1 × 106/ml, total sperm count 117.8–153.1 × 106, sperm progressive motility 33.4–38.1%) during the 7 years of observation, no significant decrease in semen quality was found, and 47.88% of infertile men showed normal semen parameters according to the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. According to the joinpoint regression analysis, sperm progressive motility appeared to decrease earlier than the sperm concentration and total sperm count (at 28, 58, and 42 years of age, respectively). Conclusions There is no evidence of a deterioration in semen quality among infertile men in Hunan, China. Semen parameters decreased with increasing age, with turning points noted at different ages. Semen parameters are not absolute evidence for the assessment of male fertility potential. Therefore, we believe that, among semen parameters, the sperm concentration is the best predictor of fertility for ART, followed by motility. Decreased sperm motility may affect natural pregnancy, but it is not necessary for successful IVF.

scholarly journals Assessing trends of breast cancer and carcinoma in situ to monitor screening policies in developing settings

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Érika de Abreu Costa Brito ◽  
Marcela Sampaio Lima ◽  
Hianga Fayssa Fernandes Siqueira ◽  
Adriane Dórea Marques ◽  
Alex Rodrigues Moura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Screening Strategies ◽  
Developing Settings

Abstract There have been arguments about the role of breast cancer screening at the population level, and some points of controversy have arisen, such the establishment of organized screening policies and the age at which to begin screening. The real benefit of screening has been questioned because the results of this practice may increase the diagnosis of indolent lesions without decreasing mortality due to breast cancer. The authors have proposed a study of incidence and mortality trends for breast cancer in a developing setting in Brazil to monitor the effectiveness of the official recommendations that prioritize the age group from 50 to 69 years. The database of the Cancer Registry and the Mortality Information System was used to calculate age-standardized and age-specific rates, which were then used to calculate incidence and mortality trends using the Joinpoint Regression Program. The results showed stability in trends across all ages and age-specific groups in both incidence and mortality. In conclusion, we found that incidence and mortality rates are compatible with those in regions with similar human development indexes, and trends have demonstrated stabilization. Thus, we do not endorse changes in the official recommendations to conduct screening for ages other than 50 to 69 years, nor should policy makers implement organized screening strategies.

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