scholarly journals Elements of Delays in Construction Management of DPWH Aurora District Engineering Office

2021 ◽  
Vol 06 (06) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pantalunan, Carlito H.
Keyword(s):  
Construction Management ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Primary Role ◽  
Survey Questionnaire ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Efficient Manner ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Common Problems ◽  
The Government

The Department of Public Works and Highways Department is the engineering and construction arm of the government, whose primary role is to constantly innovate in order to meet the best standards of competence when building public works and highways and to utilize infrastructure projects in an effective and efficient manner. While project implementation is closely monitored, unexpected complications can occasionally cause project delays. Delays and associated costs and disputes result in lawsuits, claims, and, in the worst-case scenario, project termination, all of which have a significant impact on the project itself. To acquire knowledge and understanding of the Elements of Delays in the Construction of the DPWH Aurora District Engineering Office (DPWH-ADEO).This was accomplished through an evaluation of documents obtained from DPWH-ADEO, as well as a survey of DPWH-ADEO managers, project engineers, and contractor's representatives using an adapted questionnaire. Three of the primary reasons for suspension in 2019-2020, according to information obtained, were weather-related events, the COVID-19 virus, and the pending completion of another phase. A survey questionnaire revealed that the three most common problems encountered in projects are rain, pandemic-related delays, and order changes. These findings could be used to develop an effective and appropriate construction management strategy for avoiding or, in the event of delays, mitigating DPWH Aurora District Engineering Office delays.

scholarly journals Flattening the curve and the effect of atypical events on mitigation measures in Mexico: a modeling perspective

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Santana-Cibrian ◽  
Manuel Adrian Acuna-Zegarra ◽  
Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mother’S Day ◽  
Short Time

On 23 and 30 March 2020 the Mexican Federal government implemented social distancing measures to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic. We use a mathematical model to explore atypical transmission events within the confinement period, triggered by the timing and strength of short time perturbations of social distancing. We show that social distancing measures were successful in achieving a significant reduction of the effective contact rate in the early weeks of the intervention. However, "flattening the curve" had an undesirable effect, since the epidemic peak was delayed too far, almost to the government preset day for lifting restrictions (01 June 2020). If the peak indeed occurs in late May or early June, then the events of children's day and mother's day may either generate a later peak (worst case scenario), a long plateau with relatively constant but high incidence (middle case scenario) or the same peak date as in the original baseline epidemic curve, but with a post-peak interval of slower decay.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India: epidemiological features and in silico analysis of the effect of interventions

F1000Research ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Archisman Mazumder ◽  
Mehak Arora ◽  
Vishwesh Bharadiya ◽  
Parul Berry ◽  
Mudit Agarwal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
In Silico ◽  
In Silico Analysis ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Current Contact ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Gender

Background: After SARS-CoV-2 set foot in India, the Government took a number of steps to limit the spread of the virus in the country. This included restricted testing, isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, and enforcement of a nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020. The objectives of this study were to i) describe the age,gender distribution and mortality among COVID-19 patients identified till 14 April 2020 and predict the range of contact rate; and ii) predict the number of active COVID-19 patients after 40 days of lockdown. Methods: We used a cross-sectional descriptive design for first objective and a susceptible-infected-removed model for in silico predictions. We collected data from government-controlled and crowdsourced websites. Results: Studying age and gender parameters of 1161 Indian COVID-19 patients, the median age was 38 years (IQR, 27-52) with 20-39 year-old males being the most affected group. The number of affected patients were 854 (73.6%) men and 307 (26.4%) women. If the current contact rate continues (0.25-27), India may have 110460 to 220575 infected persons at the end of 40 days lockdown. Conclusion: The disease is majorly affecting a younger age group in India. Interventions have been helpful in preventing the worst-case scenario in India, but will be unable to prevent the spike in number of cases.

Venezuela: Political Confrontation and the World Community

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-111
Author(s):  
Z. W. Iwanowski ◽  
D. M. Rozental
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Politics ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Systemic Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Forces

The paper examines a complex web of domestic and external issues which have both provoked a systemic crisis in Venezuela and, at the same time, determined its specificity in comparison with the wave of protests sweeping across Latin America in 2019.The authors conclude that the escalation of the conflict in Venezuela was caused not only by the standoff between the legislative and the executive branches of the government, but also by the split of the whole society into proponents and opponents of ‘socialism of the 21st century’. The contradictions have led to the formation of the parallel branches of power: two presidents, two parliaments and two supreme courts (one of them in exile) which de facto coexist in the country and each claims exclusive rights and legitimacy.The authors also stress that the situation in Venezuela has obvious regional consequences. The miscalculations of the incumbent president were used in election campaigns in other Latin American countries and became one of the reasons for the defeat of left candidates, the subsequent ‘right drift’ leading to the isolation of the republic. The new political landscape has also affected the architecture of integration associations, which failed to develop a unified position toward the Bolivarian regime.Furthermore, in a current heightened state of international tensions Venezuela has turned into a theatre of international rivalry and conflict involving all the key subjects of world politics. The United States, China, Russia and the European Union compete for the energy resources of the country and pursue their own strategic interests. The inability or unwillingness of external forces to reach compromise and to bring the parties to the negotiating table can pose a threat to peace and international security.As a result, Venezuela has become one of the most turbulent countries in the region. At the same time, the repeated outbursts of protest waves are significantly different from popular uprisings in other Latin American states. In the worst-case scenario, a constantly worsening situation may result in a social explosion which threatens to make the Bolivarian Republic another hot spot of the planet.

scholarly journals NEGOTIATING THE SELLING PRICE OF HYDROPOWER ENERGY USING MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS IN BOT

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 441-450
Author(s):  
Emre Caner Akcay ◽  
Irem Dikmen ◽  
M. Talat Birgonul ◽  
David Arditi
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Feasibility Studies ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Multi Agent Systems ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
The Government

During the feasibility study of BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) hydropower investments, the selling price of energy is the most critical parameter that impacts the net present value (NPV) estimated by the investors. Investors usually consider the price of energy guaranteed by the government during their feasibility studies which is the worst case scenario. However, it is apparent that negotiations that take place between investor and broker determine the price of energy which is affected by various sources of uncertainty associated with the energy demand and country conditions. The objective of this study was to make a realistic estimate of the investor’s selling price by modeling the negotiation process between investor and broker using a multi-agent system (MAS). Thus, the factors affecting the negotiation process were identified, a negotiation protocol between the parties was set up, negotiation scenarios were determined, and modelled by using a MAS. The model was tested on a hydropower investment in Turkey and generated more realistic results compared to the current practice. Investors and brokers may benefit from this study because it considers the potential changes in the market as well as the negotiating postures of parties under different scenarios.

scholarly journals Using mobile big data to support emergency preparedness and address economically vulnerable communities during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria

Data & Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Gilbert ◽  
Olubayo Adekanmbi ◽  
Charlie Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mobile Big Data ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Abstract With the declaration of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Nigeria in 2020, the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) instigated a collaboration with MTN Nigeria to develop data-driven insights, using mobile big data (MBD) and other data sources, to shape the planning and response to the pandemic. First, a model was developed to predict the worst-case scenario for infections in each state. This was used to support state-level health committees to make local resource planning decisions. Next, as containment interventions resulted in subsistence/daily paid workers losing their income and ability to buy essential food supplies, NGF and MTN agreed a second phase of activity, to develop insights to understand the population clusters at greatest socioeconomic risk from the impact of the pandemic. This insight was used to promote available financial relief to the economically vulnerable population clusters in Lagos state via the HelpNow crowdfunding initiative. This article discusses how anonymized and aggregated mobile network data (MBD), combined with other data sources, were used to create valuable insights and inform the government, and private business, response to the pandemic in Nigeria. Finally, we discuss lessons learnt. Firstly, how a collaboration with, and support from, the regulator enabled MTN to deliver critical insights at a national scale. Secondly, how the Nigeria Data Protection Regulation and the GSMA COVID-19 Privacy Guidelines provided an initial framework to open the discussion and define the approach. Thirdly, why stakeholder management is critical to the understanding, and application, of insights. Fourthly, how existing relationships ease new project collaborations. Finally, how MTN is developing future preparedness by creating a team that is focused on developing data-driven insights for social good.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India: epidemiological features and in silico analysis of the effect of interventions

F1000Research ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 315
Author(s):  
Archisman Mazumder ◽  
Mehak Arora ◽  
Vishwesh Bharadiya ◽  
Parul Berry ◽  
Mudit Agarwal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
In Silico ◽  
In Silico Analysis ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Current Contact ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Gender

Background: After SARS-CoV-2 set foot in India, the Government took a number of steps to limit the spread of the virus in the country. This included restricted testing, isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, and enforcement of a nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020. The objectives of this study were to i) describe the age, gender distribution, and mortality among COVID-19 patients identified till 14 April 2020 and predict the range of contact rate; and ii) predict the number of  COVID-19 infections after 40 days of lockdown. Methods: We used a cross-sectional descriptive design for the first objective and a susceptible-infected-removed model for in silico predictions. We collected data from government-controlled and crowdsourced websites. Results: Studying age and gender parameters of 1161 Indian COVID-19 patients, the median age was 38 years (IQR, 27-52) with 20-39 year-old males being the most affected group. The number of affected patients were 854 (73.6%) men and 307 (26.4%) women. If the current contact rate continues (0.25-27), India may have 110460 to 220575 infected persons at the end of 40 days lockdown. Conclusion: The disease is majorly affecting a younger age group in India. Interventions have been helpful in preventing the worst-case scenario in India but will be unable to prevent the spike in the number of cases.

Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Savelli ◽  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Queena Chen
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Anchoring Effects

EXPEDITION TO MALI, 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-28
Author(s):  
D. V. Vaniukova ◽  
◽  
P. A. Kutsenkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Murder ◽  
The State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Traditional Art ◽  
Peter The Great ◽  
State Museum ◽  
Bobo Dioulasso ◽  
Oriental Studies ◽  
The Village

The research expedition of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences has been working in Mali since 2015. Since 2017, it has been attended by employees of the State Museum of the East. The task of the expedition is to study the transformation of traditional Dogon culture in the context of globalization, as well as to collect ethnographic information (life, customs, features of the traditional social and political structure); to collect oral historical legends; to study the history, existence, and transformation of artistic tradition in the villages of the Dogon Country in modern conditions; collecting items of Ethnography and art to add to the collection of the African collection of the. Peter the Great Museum (Kunstkamera, Saint Petersburg) and the State Museum of Oriental Arts (Moscow). The plan of the expedition in January 2020 included additional items, namely, the study of the functioning of the antique market in Mali (the “path” of things from villages to cities, which is important for attributing works of traditional art). The geography of our research was significantly expanded to the regions of Sikasso and Koulikoro in Mali, as well as to the city of Bobo-Dioulasso and its surroundings in Burkina Faso, which is related to the study of migrations to the Bandiagara Highlands. In addition, the plan of the expedition included organization of a photo exhibition in the Museum of the village of Endé and some educational projects. Unfortunately, after the mass murder in March 2019 in the village of Ogossogou-Pel, where more than one hundred and seventy people were killed, events in the Dogon Country began to develop in the worst-case scenario: The incessant provocations after that revived the old feud between the Pel (Fulbe) pastoralists and the Dogon farmers. So far, this hostility and mutual distrust has not yet developed into a full-scale ethnic conflict, but, unfortunately, such a development now seems quite likely.

Risk-Based Robust Bidding Strategies for EVs’ Aggregators in Day-ahead Markets with Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdelmoaty ◽  
Wessam Mesbah ◽  
Mohammad A. M. Abdel-Aal ◽  
Ali T. Alawami
Keyword(s):  
Robust Optimization ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Bidding Strategies ◽  
Wind Generators ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Optimal Bidding

In the recent electricity market framework, the profit of the generation companies depends on the decision of the operator on the schedule of its units, the energy price, and the optimal bidding strategies. Due to the expanded integration of uncertain renewable generators which is highly intermittent such as wind plants, the coordination with other facilities to mitigate the risks of imbalances is mandatory. Accordingly, coordination of wind generators with the evolutionary Electric Vehicles (EVs) is expected to boost the performance of the grid. In this paper, we propose a robust optimization approach for the coordination between the wind-thermal generators and the EVs in a virtual<br>power plant (VPP) environment. The objective of maximizing the profit of the VPP Operator (VPPO) is studied. The optimal bidding strategy of the VPPO in the day-ahead market under uncertainties of wind power, energy<br>prices, imbalance prices, and demand is obtained for the worst case scenario. A case study is conducted to assess the e?effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of the VPPO's profit. A comparison between the proposed model and the scenario-based optimization was introduced. Our results confirmed that, although the conservative behavior of the worst-case robust optimization model, it helps the decision maker from the fluctuations of the uncertain parameters involved in the production and bidding processes. In addition, robust optimization is a more tractable problem and does not suffer from<br>the high computation burden associated with scenario-based stochastic programming. This makes it more practical for real-life scenarios.<br>

scholarly journals Are Policy Analogies Persuasive? The Household Budget Analogy and Public Support for Austerity

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Lucy Barnes ◽  
Timothy Hicks
Keyword(s):  
Analogical Reasoning ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Cognitive Problem ◽  
Government Deficits ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The Government ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Household Borrowing

Abstract Public opinion on complex policy questions is shaped by the ways in which elites simplify the issues. Given the prevalence of metaphor and analogy as tools for cognitive problem solving, the deployment of analogies is often proposed as a tool for this kind of influence. For instance, a prominent explanation for the acceptance of austerity is that voters understand government deficits through an analogy to household borrowing. Indeed, there are theoretical reasons to think the household finance analogy represents a most likely case for the causal influence of analogical reasoning on policy preferences. This article examines this best-case scenario using original survey data from the United Kingdom. It reports observational and experimental analyses that find no evidence of causation running from the household analogy to preferences over the government budget. Rather, endorsement of the analogy is invoked ex post to justify support for fiscal consolidation.

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