scholarly journals NEGOTIATING THE SELLING PRICE OF HYDROPOWER ENERGY USING MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS IN BOT

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 441-450
Author(s):  
Emre Caner Akcay ◽  
Irem Dikmen ◽  
M. Talat Birgonul ◽  
David Arditi
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Feasibility Studies ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Multi Agent Systems ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
The Government

During the feasibility study of BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) hydropower investments, the selling price of energy is the most critical parameter that impacts the net present value (NPV) estimated by the investors. Investors usually consider the price of energy guaranteed by the government during their feasibility studies which is the worst case scenario. However, it is apparent that negotiations that take place between investor and broker determine the price of energy which is affected by various sources of uncertainty associated with the energy demand and country conditions. The objective of this study was to make a realistic estimate of the investor’s selling price by modeling the negotiation process between investor and broker using a multi-agent system (MAS). Thus, the factors affecting the negotiation process were identified, a negotiation protocol between the parties was set up, negotiation scenarios were determined, and modelled by using a MAS. The model was tested on a hydropower investment in Turkey and generated more realistic results compared to the current practice. Investors and brokers may benefit from this study because it considers the potential changes in the market as well as the negotiating postures of parties under different scenarios.

scholarly journals Flattening the curve and the effect of atypical events on mitigation measures in Mexico: a modeling perspective

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Santana-Cibrian ◽  
Manuel Adrian Acuna-Zegarra ◽  
Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mother’S Day ◽  
Short Time

On 23 and 30 March 2020 the Mexican Federal government implemented social distancing measures to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic. We use a mathematical model to explore atypical transmission events within the confinement period, triggered by the timing and strength of short time perturbations of social distancing. We show that social distancing measures were successful in achieving a significant reduction of the effective contact rate in the early weeks of the intervention. However, "flattening the curve" had an undesirable effect, since the epidemic peak was delayed too far, almost to the government preset day for lifting restrictions (01 June 2020). If the peak indeed occurs in late May or early June, then the events of children's day and mother's day may either generate a later peak (worst case scenario), a long plateau with relatively constant but high incidence (middle case scenario) or the same peak date as in the original baseline epidemic curve, but with a post-peak interval of slower decay.

scholarly journals Logic-based specification and verification of homogeneous dynamic multi-agent systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo De Masellis ◽  
Valentin Goranko
Keyword(s):  
Normal Form ◽  
Model Checking ◽  
Formal Specification ◽  
Formal Semantics ◽  
Fixed Number ◽  
State Transitions ◽  
Multi Agent Systems ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Worst Case Complexity ◽  
Multi Agent

Abstract We develop a logic-based framework for formal specification and algorithmic verification of homogeneous and dynamic concurrent multi-agent transition systems. Homogeneity means that all agents have the same available actions at any given state and the actions have the same effects regardless of which agents perform them. The state transitions are therefore determined only by the vector of numbers of agents performing each action and are specified symbolically, by means of conditions on these numbers definable in Presburger arithmetic. The agents are divided into controllable (by the system supervisor/controller) and uncontrollable, representing the environment or adversary. Dynamicity means that the numbers of controllable and uncontrollable agents may vary throughout the system evolution, possibly at every transition. As a language for formal specification we use a suitably extended version of Alternating-time Temporal Logic, where one can specify properties of the type “a coalition of (at least) n controllable agents can ensure against (at most) m uncontrollable agents that any possible evolution of the system satisfies a given objective $$\gamma$$ γ ″, where $$\gamma$$ γ is specified again as a formula of that language and each of n and m is either a fixed number or a variable that can be quantified over. We provide formal semantics to our logic $${\mathcal {L}}_{\textsc {hdmas}}$$ L H D M A S and define normal form of its formulae. We then prove that every formula in $${\mathcal {L}}_{\textsc {hdmas}}$$ L H D M A S is equivalent in the finite to one in a normal form and develop an algorithm for global model checking of formulae in normal form in finite HDMAS models, which invokes model checking truth of Presburger formulae. We establish worst case complexity estimates for the model checking algorithm and illustrate it on a running example.

scholarly journals Some Things are Easier for the Dumb and the Bright Ones (Beware the Average!)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wojciech Jamroga ◽  
Michał Knapik
Keyword(s):  
Model Checking ◽  
Multi Agent Systems ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Case Complexity ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Worst Case Complexity ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Np Complete ◽  
Epistemic Structure ◽  
Verification Of Models

Model checking strategic abilities in multi-agent systems is hard, especially for agents with partial observability of the state of the system. In that case, it ranges from NP-complete to undecidable, depending on the precise syntax and the semantic variant. That, however, is the worst case complexity, and the problem might as well be easier when restricted to particular subclasses of inputs. In this paper, we look at the verification of models with "extreme" epistemic structure, and identify several special cases for which model checking is easier than in general. We also prove that, in the other cases, no gain is possible even if the agents have almost full (or almost nil) observability. To prove the latter kind of results, we develop generic techniques that may be useful also outside of this study.

scholarly journals Theoretical Impact of Building Façade Thickness on Daylight Metrics and Lighting Energy Demand in Buildings: A Case Study of the Tropics

Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 656
Author(s):  
Rizki A. Mangkuto ◽  
Atthaillah ◽  
Mochamad Donny Koerniawan ◽  
Brian Yuliarto
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Energy Demands ◽  
Building Facade ◽  
Lighting Energy ◽  
Calculation Point ◽  
Design Variation ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

In daylighting design, variation of building façade thickness (f) will result in variation of the daylight opening areas, which in turn will modify the values of daylight metrics within the space. However, studies dedicated to investigating the impact of varying f on indoor daylight metrics are relatively scarce. This study, therefore, aims to assess the theoretical impact of various façade thicknesses on various daylight metrics and lighting energy demands in a reference office space. Analytical calculations are performed using an outdoor diffuse illuminance profile of a tropical city. The building façade thickness values are varied within 0–0.50 m, at window-to-wall ratios (WWR) of 25%, 50%, and 75%. Based on sensitivity analysis, it is found that variation of f yields different impacts on the observed metrics, with sDA300/50% being the least influenced. Among all metrics in the central calculation point, DA300, UDI-a, and UDI-a′ yield relatively small coefficients of variation, and thus, have the lowest uncertainty with respect to f. Among all metrics for the entire room, sDA300/50% and sUDI-a50% have the lowest uncertainty, with interquartile ranges of no more than 0.4%. Overall, the contribution of this study is providing insight into the impact of façade thickness on various daylight metrics in indoor spaces, particularly in the worst-case scenario under the standard CIE overcast sky.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India: epidemiological features and in silico analysis of the effect of interventions

F1000Research ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Archisman Mazumder ◽  
Mehak Arora ◽  
Vishwesh Bharadiya ◽  
Parul Berry ◽  
Mudit Agarwal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
In Silico ◽  
In Silico Analysis ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Current Contact ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Gender

Background: After SARS-CoV-2 set foot in India, the Government took a number of steps to limit the spread of the virus in the country. This included restricted testing, isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, and enforcement of a nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020. The objectives of this study were to i) describe the age,gender distribution and mortality among COVID-19 patients identified till 14 April 2020 and predict the range of contact rate; and ii) predict the number of active COVID-19 patients after 40 days of lockdown. Methods: We used a cross-sectional descriptive design for first objective and a susceptible-infected-removed model for in silico predictions. We collected data from government-controlled and crowdsourced websites. Results: Studying age and gender parameters of 1161 Indian COVID-19 patients, the median age was 38 years (IQR, 27-52) with 20-39 year-old males being the most affected group. The number of affected patients were 854 (73.6%) men and 307 (26.4%) women. If the current contact rate continues (0.25-27), India may have 110460 to 220575 infected persons at the end of 40 days lockdown. Conclusion: The disease is majorly affecting a younger age group in India. Interventions have been helpful in preventing the worst-case scenario in India, but will be unable to prevent the spike in number of cases.

Venezuela: Political Confrontation and the World Community

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-111
Author(s):  
Z. W. Iwanowski ◽  
D. M. Rozental
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Politics ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Systemic Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Forces

The paper examines a complex web of domestic and external issues which have both provoked a systemic crisis in Venezuela and, at the same time, determined its specificity in comparison with the wave of protests sweeping across Latin America in 2019.The authors conclude that the escalation of the conflict in Venezuela was caused not only by the standoff between the legislative and the executive branches of the government, but also by the split of the whole society into proponents and opponents of ‘socialism of the 21st century’. The contradictions have led to the formation of the parallel branches of power: two presidents, two parliaments and two supreme courts (one of them in exile) which de facto coexist in the country and each claims exclusive rights and legitimacy.The authors also stress that the situation in Venezuela has obvious regional consequences. The miscalculations of the incumbent president were used in election campaigns in other Latin American countries and became one of the reasons for the defeat of left candidates, the subsequent ‘right drift’ leading to the isolation of the republic. The new political landscape has also affected the architecture of integration associations, which failed to develop a unified position toward the Bolivarian regime.Furthermore, in a current heightened state of international tensions Venezuela has turned into a theatre of international rivalry and conflict involving all the key subjects of world politics. The United States, China, Russia and the European Union compete for the energy resources of the country and pursue their own strategic interests. The inability or unwillingness of external forces to reach compromise and to bring the parties to the negotiating table can pose a threat to peace and international security.As a result, Venezuela has become one of the most turbulent countries in the region. At the same time, the repeated outbursts of protest waves are significantly different from popular uprisings in other Latin American states. In the worst-case scenario, a constantly worsening situation may result in a social explosion which threatens to make the Bolivarian Republic another hot spot of the planet.

scholarly journals ESTIMATING THE PROFITABILITY OF HYDROPOWER INVESTMENTS WITH A CASE STUDY FROM TURKEY

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 1002-1012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emre Caner AKCAY ◽  
Irem DIKMEN ◽  
M. Talat BIRGONUL ◽  
David ARDITI
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Feasibility Studies ◽  
Stochastic Approach ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Flow Parameters ◽  
Set Up

Energy demand has been increasing, but traditional sources of energy are depletable. New investments are needed in renewable energy production. Hydroelectric power plants are often considered a feasible renewable source of energy and are often organized as a public private partnerships (PPP). However, risk factors stemming from the macro environment as well as project conditions should be considered in performing feasibility studies. The objective of this study was to develop a method that can be used to predict the profitability of hydropower investments considering the relevant risk factors. To that end, a cash flow that represents the construction and operation period is set up, the risk fac­tors involved in such projects are identified, the impacts of these risk factors on the cash flow parameters are assessed, and Monte Carlo simulation is performed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of a hydropower investment. The proposed method was tested in a hydropower investment located in Turkey and generated credible results that could be of great benefit to potential investors operating in similar conditions. The primary contribution of this research is the creation of a method that allows investors to assess the profitability of a hydropower investment by using a stochastic approach.

Incorporating the Negotiation Process in Urban Planning DSS

2020 ◽  
pp. 484-500
Author(s):  
Imene Benatia ◽  
Mohamed Ridda Laouar ◽  
Sean B. Eom ◽  
Hakim Bendjenna
Keyword(s):  
City Planning ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Multi Agent Systems ◽  
Negotiation Protocol ◽  
Agent Systems ◽  
Contract Net ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Urban Project ◽  
Communication And Coordination ◽  
The City

Cooperation in multi-agent systems is necessary in order to perform complex tasks and lead Multi-agent System (MAS) towards its objective. Contract-Net Protocol (CNP) is one of the communication and coordination mechanisms used by multi-agent systems which prefer cooperation through interaction protocols. This paper proposes a new cooperation and negotiation protocol based on the principals of the Contact Net Protocol (CNP). The auhtors' suggested negotiation protocol is used to solve one of the problems in the context of the city planning which is the problem of election of urban projects. Their proposed protocol is intended to the decision makers in order to help them resolve the problem of the evaluation and the selection of the best urban project without the need to be together in a decision urban room.

scholarly journals Using mobile big data to support emergency preparedness and address economically vulnerable communities during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria

Data & Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Gilbert ◽  
Olubayo Adekanmbi ◽  
Charlie Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mobile Big Data ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Abstract With the declaration of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Nigeria in 2020, the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) instigated a collaboration with MTN Nigeria to develop data-driven insights, using mobile big data (MBD) and other data sources, to shape the planning and response to the pandemic. First, a model was developed to predict the worst-case scenario for infections in each state. This was used to support state-level health committees to make local resource planning decisions. Next, as containment interventions resulted in subsistence/daily paid workers losing their income and ability to buy essential food supplies, NGF and MTN agreed a second phase of activity, to develop insights to understand the population clusters at greatest socioeconomic risk from the impact of the pandemic. This insight was used to promote available financial relief to the economically vulnerable population clusters in Lagos state via the HelpNow crowdfunding initiative. This article discusses how anonymized and aggregated mobile network data (MBD), combined with other data sources, were used to create valuable insights and inform the government, and private business, response to the pandemic in Nigeria. Finally, we discuss lessons learnt. Firstly, how a collaboration with, and support from, the regulator enabled MTN to deliver critical insights at a national scale. Secondly, how the Nigeria Data Protection Regulation and the GSMA COVID-19 Privacy Guidelines provided an initial framework to open the discussion and define the approach. Thirdly, why stakeholder management is critical to the understanding, and application, of insights. Fourthly, how existing relationships ease new project collaborations. Finally, how MTN is developing future preparedness by creating a team that is focused on developing data-driven insights for social good.

scholarly journals Research on Multi-Agent Systems in a Smart Small Grid for Resource Apportionment and Planning

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhixian Yang ◽  
Kshuangchen Fu ◽  
Jhon Paul
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Saving ◽  
Behavior Pattern ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
User Preference ◽  
Multi Agent Systems ◽  
Negative Change ◽  
Energy Consumption Optimization ◽  
Multi Agent

With the advancement in the technology, deployment of sensors in the industrial or public building is increasing rapidly. The basic aim is to obtain the data from the environment and decision making to the energy saving. The activities caused by the human results the undergoing negative change in the environment. There are many techniques available for decision making and consider the environmental factors solely which cause the energy consumption. However, user’s preferences are not adapted by the systems, but at energy consumption optimization, these systems are very successful. The end-users use the system which considers the factors and their wellbeing are get affected. The distributed generation is incorporated by the Smart Small Grid (SSG), communication network and the sensors for the more reliable, flexible and efficient grid. The energy saving system is presented in this paper which also adapts to the inhabitants preferences apart from environmental conditions consideration. The architecture of Multi-Agent System (MAS) and the agents are utilized for negotiation process performance between the users comfort preferences and optimization degree that according to these preferences, achievement of system is done. The energy consumption of 40% is obtained and in the inhabitants' behavior pattern, the algorithm was specialized. The 16.89% of reduction is obtained by the existing system and it was focused to obtain the agreement between the system and users for user preference satisfaction and the energy optimization is also performed at the same time.

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