scholarly journals Foodborne Disease Estimates for the United Kingdom in 2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darren Holland ◽  
Nazmina Mahmoudzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Clostridium Perfringens ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Intestinal Disease ◽  
Foodborne Disease ◽  
Infectious Intestinal Disease ◽  
Credible Intervals ◽  
Causal Pathogen ◽  
Model Review

In February 2020 the FSA published two reports which produced new estimates of foodborne norovirus cases. These were the ‘Norovirus Attribution Study’ (NoVAS study) (O’Brien et al., 2020) and the accompanying internal FSA technical review ‘Technical Report: Review of Quantitative Risk Assessment of foodborne norovirus transmission’ (NoVAS model review), (Food Standards Agency, 2020). The NoVAS study produced a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment model (QMRA) to estimate foodborne norovirus. The NoVAS model review considered the impact of using alternative assumptions and other data sources on these estimates. From these two pieces of work, a revised estimate of foodborne norovirus was produced. The FSA has therefore updated its estimates of annual foodborne disease to include these new results and also to take account of more recent data related to other pathogens. The estimates produced include: •Estimates of GP presentations and hospital admissions for foodbornenorovirus based on the new estimates of cases. The NoVAS study onlyproduced estimates for cases. •Estimates of foodborne cases, GP presentations and hospital admissions for12 other pathogens •Estimates of unattributed cases of foodborne disease •Estimates of total foodborne disease from all pathogens Previous estimates An FSA funded research project ‘The second study of infectious intestinal disease in the community’, published in 2012 and referred to as the IID2 study (Tam et al., 2012), estimated that there were 17 million cases of infectious intestinal disease (IID) in 2009. These include illness caused by all sources, not just food. Of these 17 million cases, around 40% (around 7 million) could be attributed to 13 known pathogens. These pathogens included norovirus. The remaining 60% of cases (equivalent to 10 million cases) were unattributed cases. These are cases where the causal pathogen is unknown. Reasons for this include the causal pathogen was not tested for, the test was not sensitive enough to detect the causal pathogen or the pathogen is unknown to science. A second project ‘Costed extension to the second study of infectious intestinal disease in the community’, published in 2014 and known as IID2 extension (Tam, Larose and O’Brien, 2014), estimated that there were 566,000 cases of foodborne disease per year caused by the same 13 known pathogens. Although a proportion of the unattributed cases would also be due to food, no estimate was provided for this in the IID2 extension. New estimates We estimate that there were 2.4 million cases of foodborne disease in the UK in 2018 (95% credible intervals 1.8 million to 3.1 million), with 222,000 GP presentations (95% Cred. Int. 150,000 to 322,000) and 16,400 hospital admissions (95% Cred. Int. 11,200 to 26,000). Of the estimated 2.4 million cases, 0.9 million (95% Cred. Int. 0.7 million to 1.2 million) were from the 13 known pathogens included in the IID2 extension and 1.4 million1 (95% Cred. Int. 1.0 million to 2.0 million) for unattributed cases. Norovirus was the pathogen with the largest estimate with 383,000 cases a year. However, this estimate is within the 95% credible interval for Campylobacter of 127,000 to 571,000. The pathogen with the next highest number of cases was Clostridium perfringens with 85,000 (95% Cred. Int. 32,000 to 225,000). While the methodology used in the NoVAS study does not lend itself to producing credible intervals for cases of norovirus, this does not mean that there is no uncertainty in these estimates. There were a number of parameters used in the NoVAS study which, while based on the best science currently available, were acknowledged to have uncertain values. Sensitivity analysis undertaken as part of the study showed that changes to the values of these parameters could make big differences to the overall estimates. Campylobacter was estimated to have the most GP presentations with 43,000 (95% Cred. Int. 19,000 to 76,000) followed by norovirus with 17,000 (95% Cred. Int. 11,000 to 26,000) and Clostridium perfringens with 13,000 (95% Cred. Int. 6,000 to 29,000). For hospital admissions Campylobacter was estimated to have 3,500 (95% Cred. Int. 1,400 to 7,600), followed by norovirus 2,200 (95% Cred. Int. 1,500 to 3,100) and Salmonella with 2,100 admissions (95% Cred. Int. 400 to 9,900). As many of these credible intervals overlap, any ranking needs to be undertaken with caution. While the estimates provided in this report are for 2018 the methodology described can be applied to future years.

scholarly journals Estimating deaths from foodborne disease in the UK for 11 key pathogens

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. e000377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darren Holland ◽  
Laura Thomson ◽  
Nazmina Mahmoudzadeh ◽  
Abdul Khaled
Keyword(s):  
Listeria Monocytogenes ◽  
Clostridium Perfringens ◽  
Hospital Episode Statistics ◽  
Foodborne Illness ◽  
Foodborne Disease ◽  
Death Certificates ◽  
Hospital Episode ◽  
Credible Intervals ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Uk

ObjectiveTo estimate the number of deaths from foodborne disease in the UK from 11 key pathogens.DesignFour different models were developed using data from a range of sources. These included enhanced surveillance, outbreaks, death certificates and hospital episode statistics data. For each model, median estimates were produced with 95% credible intervals (CrI). The results from the different models were compared.ResultsThe estimates for foodborne deaths for each pathogen from the different models were consistent, with CrIs largely overlapping. Based on the preferred model for each pathogen, foodborne norovirus is estimated to cause 56 deaths per year (95% CrI 32 to 92), foodborne Salmonella 33 deaths (95% CrI 7 to 159), foodborne Listeria monocytogenes 26 deaths (95% CrI 24 to 28), foodborne Clostridium perfringens 25 deaths (95% CrI 1 to 163) and foodborne Campylobacter 21 deaths (95% CrI 8 to 47). The considerable overlap in the CrIs means it is not possible to make any firm conclusions on ranking. Most of these deaths occur in those aged over 75 years. Foodborne deaths from Shigella, Cryptosporidium, Giardia, adenovirus, astrovirus and rotavirus are all rare.ConclusionsWe estimate that there are 180 deaths per year in the UK (95% CrI 113 to 359) caused by foodborne disease based on these 11 pathogens. While this is a small fraction of the estimated 2.4 million cases of foodborne illness per year it still illustrates the potential severity of these illnesses demonstrating the importance in continuing efforts to reduce these infections.

Risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism in hospitalized surgical and non-surgical patients in the 4th Hungarian Antithrombotic Guidelines entitled “Diminution and Treatment of Venous Thromboembolism”

2010 ◽  
Vol 151 (34) ◽  
pp. 1365-1374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianna Dávid ◽  
Hajna Losonczy ◽  
Miklós Udvardy ◽  
Zoltán Boda ◽  
György Blaskó ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Risk Assessment Model

A kórházban kezelt sebészeti és belgyógyászati betegekben jelentős a vénásthromboembolia-rizikó. Profilaxis nélkül, a műtét típusától függően, a sebészeti beavatkozások kapcsán a betegek 15–60%-ában alakul ki mélyvénás trombózis vagy tüdőembólia, és az utóbbi ma is vezető kórházi halálok. Bár a vénás thromboemboliát leggyakrabban a közelmúltban végzett műtéttel vagy traumával hozzák kapcsolatba, a szimptómás thromboemboliás események 50–70%-a és a fatális tüdőembóliák 70–80%-a nem a sebészeti betegekben alakul ki. Nemzetközi és hazai felmérések alapján a nagy kockázattal rendelkező sebészeti betegek többsége megkapja a szükséges trombózisprofilaxist. Azonban profilaxis nélkül marad a rizikóval rendelkező belgyógyászati betegek jelentős része, a konszenzuson alapuló nemzetközi és hazai irányelvi ajánlások ellenére. A belgyógyászati betegek körében növelni kell a profilaxisban részesülők arányát és el kell érni, hogy trombózisrizikó esetén a betegek megkapják a hatásos megelőzést. A beteg trombóziskockázatának felmérése fontos eszköze a vénás thromboembolia által veszélyeztetett betegek felderítésének, megkönnyíti a döntést a profilaxis elrendeléséről és javítja az irányelvi ajánlások betartását. A trombózisveszély megállapításakor, ha nem ellenjavallt, profilaxist kell alkalmazni. „A thromboemboliák kockázatának csökkentése és kezelése” című, 4. magyar antithromboticus irányelv felhívja a figyelmet a vénástrombózis-rizikó felmérésének szükségességére, és elsőként tartalmazza a kórházban fekvő belgyógyászati és sebészeti betegek kockázati kérdőívét. Ismertetjük a kockázatbecslő kérdőíveket és áttekintjük a kérdőívekben szereplő rizikófaktorokra vonatkozó bizonyítékokon alapuló adatokat.

Signature Analysis: Statistical Models and Their Application to FA

1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.K. Lakshminarayan ◽  
S. Pabbisetty ◽  
O. Adams ◽  
F. Pires ◽  
M. Thomas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Failure Analysis ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Essential Elements ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Signature Analysis ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Reliability Engineering ◽  
Semiconductor Chips

Abstract This paper deals with the basic concepts of Signature Analysis and the application of statistical models for its implementation. It develops a scheme for computing sample sizes when the failures are random. It also introduces statistical models that comprehend correlations among failures that fail due to the same failure mechanism. The idea of correlation is important because semiconductor chips are processed in batches. Also any risk assessment model should comprehend correlations over time. The statistical models developed will provide the required sample sizes for the Failure Analysis lab to state "We are A% confident that B% of future parts will fail due to the same signature." The paper provides tables and graphs for the evaluation of such a risk assessment. The implementation of Signature Analysis will achieve the dual objective of improved customer satisfaction and reduced cycle time. This paper will also highlight it's applicability as well as the essential elements that need to be in place for it to be effective. Different examples have been illustrated of how the concept is being used by Failure Analysis Operations (FA) and Customer Quality and Reliability Engineering groups.

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for the outbreak of grass carp hemorrhage

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song YANG ◽  
Shuqin WU ◽  
Ningqiu LI ◽  
Cunbin SHI ◽  
Guocheng DENG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Grass Carp ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Model

scholarly journals An Alternative Risk Assessment Model of Urban Waterlogging: A Case Study of Ningbo City

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 826
Author(s):  
Meiling Zhou ◽  
Xiuli Feng ◽  
Kaikai Liu ◽  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Lijian Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
The North ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
The City

Influenced by climate change, extreme weather events occur frequently, and bring huge impacts to urban areas, including urban waterlogging. Conducting risk assessments of urban waterlogging is a critical step to diagnose problems, improve infrastructure and achieve sustainable development facing extreme weathers. This study takes Ningbo, a typical coastal city in the Yangtze River Delta, as an example to conduct a risk assessment of urban waterlogging with high-resolution remote sensing images and high-precision digital elevation models to further analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlogging risk. Results indicate that waterlogging risk in the city proper of Ningbo is mainly low risk, accounting for 36.9%. The higher-risk and medium-risk areas have the same proportions, accounting for 18.7%. They are followed by the lower-risk and high-risk areas, accounting for 15.5% and 9.6%, respectively. In terms of space, waterlogging risk in the city proper of Ningbo is high in the south and low in the north. The high-risk area is mainly located to the west of Jiangdong district and the middle of Haishu district. The low-risk area is mainly distributed in the north of Jiangbei district. These results are consistent with the historical situation of waterlogging in Ningbo, which prove the effectiveness of the risk assessment model and provide an important reference for the government to prevent and mitigate waterlogging. The optimized risk assessment model is also of importance for waterlogging risk assessments in coastal cities. Based on this model, the waterlogging risk of coastal cities can be quickly assessed, combining with local characteristics, which will help improve the city’s capability of responding to waterlogging disasters and reduce socio-economic loss.

scholarly journals Pb Content, Risk Level and Primary-Source Apportionment in Wheat and Rice Grains in the Lihe River Watershed, Taihu Region, Eastern China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 6256
Author(s):  
Lian Chen ◽  
Shenglu Zhou ◽  
Qiong Yang ◽  
Qingrong Li ◽  
Dongxu Xing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Risk ◽  
Source Apportionment ◽  
Health Risk Assessment ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Rice Grains

This study detailed a complete research from Lead (Pb) content level to ecological and health risk to direct- and primary-sources apportionment arising from wheat and rice grains, in the Lihe River Watershed of the Taihu region, East China. Ecological and health risk assessment were based on the pollution index and US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) health risk assessment model. A three-stage quantitative analysis program based on Pb isotope analysis to determine the relative contributions of primary sources involving (1) direct-source apportionment in grains with a two-end-member model, (2) apportionment of soil and dustfall sources using the IsoSource model, and (3) the integration of results of (1) and (2) was notedly first proposed. The results indicated that mean contents of Pb in wheat and rice grains were 0.54 and 0.45 mg/kg and both the bio-concentration factors (BCF) were <<1; the ecological risk pollution indices were 1.35 for wheat grains and 1.11 for rice grains; hazard quotient (HQ) values for adult and child indicating health risks through ingestion of grains were all <1; Coal-fired industrial sources account for up to 60% of Pb in the grains. This study provides insights into the management of grain Pb pollution and a new method for its source apportionment.

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