scholarly journals A Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate. 3: Outlook for Global Temperature Change throughout the 21st Century

2013 ◽  
Vol 04 (06) ◽  
pp. 653-664 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael E. Schlesinger ◽  
Daniela Lindner ◽  
Michael J. Ring ◽  
Emily F. Cross
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Global Temperature Change ◽  
Earth’S Climate

scholarly journals Sunspot Cycle 24 and the Advent of Dalton-Like Minimum

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. S. Ahluwalia ◽  
R. C. Ygbuhay
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Sunspot Cycle ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Global Temperature Change ◽  
Cycle 24

Ahluwalia and Jackiewicz (2011) have predicted that sunspot cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May2013±6months. Here, we discuss the timeline for cycle 24 since its onset in December, 2008 and compare it to the timelines for the last ten cycles (14 to 23) of the 20th century; cycle 24 is rising the slowest. We speculate that cycle 24 may herald the onset of a Dalton-like minimum in the 21st century. The implications of this outcome on global temperature change and ensuing socioeconomic and political scenarios are discussed, on the basis of the historical record.

scholarly journals Reply to Yu et al.: Global temperature change as the ultimate driver of the shift in the summer monsoon rain belt in East Asia

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (16) ◽  
pp. E2211-E2212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiling Yang ◽  
Zhongli Ding ◽  
Yangyang Li ◽  
Xu Wang ◽  
Wenying Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Rain Belt ◽  
Monsoon Rain ◽  
Global Temperature Change

Quantile spline models for global temperature change

1994 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 395-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Koenker ◽  
Frank Schorfheide
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Spline Models ◽  
Global Temperature Change

scholarly journals Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

2012 ◽  
Vol 370 (1974) ◽  
pp. 4365-4379 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Damon Matthews ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
Raymond Pierrehumbert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Global Temperature Change

The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO 2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO 2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO 2 relative to other major climate forcing agents.

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