Automated Forecasting of Extratropical Storm Surges for the Northeast Coast of the United States

1973 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Arthur Pore
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The United States ◽  
Automated Forecasting ◽  
Northeast Coast

scholarly journals AUTOMATED FORECASTING OF EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGES

1976 ◽  
Vol 1 (15) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
N. Arthur Pore
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Automated Technique ◽  
Automated Forecasting

The Atlantic coast of the United States is affected by extratropical storm surges several times each winter. The most devastating storm of this type on record is that of March 1962. This storm caused damage estimated at over $200 million. The National Weather Service has developed an automated technique for forecasting such storm surges. Statistical forecast equations have been derived for 11 locations from Portland, Me., to Charleston, S.C. Input data to these equations are values of sea-level pressure as forecast by an atmospheric prediction model of the National Meteorological Center. A sample forecast equation is shown. The method was put into operation in 1971. Forecasts are transmitted via teletypewriter and extend to 48 hours at 6-hour intervals. A sample teletype message is shown. Forecasts of the devastating storm surge of Feb. 19, 1972, are discussed. These forecasts agreed reasonably well with observations of the storm surge. Experience with the method indicates it to be useful and therefore it will be expanded to include additional forecast locations.

Chemical contaminants and hepatic lesions in winter flounder (Pleuronectes americanus) from the northeast coast of the United States

1993 ◽  
Vol 27 (13) ◽  
pp. 2759-2771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyndal L. Johnson ◽  
Carla M. Stehr ◽  
O. Paul Olson ◽  
Mark S. Myers ◽  
Susan M. Pierce ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Winter Flounder ◽  
Pleuronectes Americanus ◽  
Chemical Contaminants ◽  
Hepatic Lesions ◽  
Northeast Coast

scholarly journals Genomic Variation and Evolution of Vibrio parahaemolyticus ST36 over the Course of a Transcontinental Epidemic Expansion

mBio ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Martinez-Urtaza ◽  
Ronny van Aerle ◽  
Michel Abanto ◽  
Julie Haendiges ◽  
Robert A. Myers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Vibrio Parahaemolyticus ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sequence Type ◽  
Evolutionary Divergence ◽  
Human Pathogens ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Northeast Coast

ABSTRACT Vibrio parahaemolyticus is the leading cause of seafood-related infections with illnesses undergoing a geographic expansion. In this process of expansion, the most fundamental change has been the transition from infections caused by local strains to the surge of pandemic clonal types. Pandemic clone sequence type 3 (ST3) was the only example of transcontinental spreading until 2012, when ST36 was detected outside the region where it is endemic in the U.S. Pacific Northwest causing infections along the U.S. northeast coast and Spain. Here, we used genome-wide analyses to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the V. parahaemolyticus ST36 clone over the course of its geographic expansion during the previous 25 years. The origin of this lineage was estimated to be in ~1985. By 1995, a new variant emerged in the region and quickly replaced the old clone, which has not been detected since 2000. The new Pacific Northwest (PNW) lineage was responsible for the first cases associated with this clone outside the Pacific Northwest region. After several introductions into the northeast coast, the new PNW clone differentiated into a highly dynamic group that continues to cause illness on the northeast coast of the United States. Surprisingly, the strains detected in Europe in 2012 diverged from this ancestral group around 2000 and have conserved genetic features present only in the old PNW lineage. Recombination was identified as the major driver of diversification, with some preliminary observations suggesting a trend toward a more specialized lifestyle, which may represent a critical element in the expansion of epidemics under scenarios of coastal warming. IMPORTANCE Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio cholerae represent the only two instances of pandemic expansions of human pathogens originating in the marine environment. However, while the current pandemic of V. cholerae emerged more than 50 years ago, the global expansion of V. parahaemolyticus is a recent phenomenon. These modern expansions provide an exceptional opportunity to study the evolutionary process of these pathogens at first hand and gain an understanding of the mechanisms shaping the epidemic dynamics of these diseases, in particular, the emergence, dispersal, and successful introduction in new regions facilitating global spreading of infections. In this study, we used genomic analysis to examine the evolutionary divergence that has occurred over the course of the most recent transcontinental expansion of a pathogenic Vibrio, the spreading of the V. parahaemolyticus sequence type 36 clone from the region where it is endemic on the Pacific coast of North America to the east coast of the United States and finally to the west coast of Europe. IMPORTANCE Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio cholerae represent the only two instances of pandemic expansions of human pathogens originating in the marine environment. However, while the current pandemic of V. cholerae emerged more than 50 years ago, the global expansion of V. parahaemolyticus is a recent phenomenon. These modern expansions provide an exceptional opportunity to study the evolutionary process of these pathogens at first hand and gain an understanding of the mechanisms shaping the epidemic dynamics of these diseases, in particular, the emergence, dispersal, and successful introduction in new regions facilitating global spreading of infections. In this study, we used genomic analysis to examine the evolutionary divergence that has occurred over the course of the most recent transcontinental expansion of a pathogenic Vibrio, the spreading of the V. parahaemolyticus sequence type 36 clone from the region where it is endemic on the Pacific coast of North America to the east coast of the United States and finally to the west coast of Europe.

scholarly journals Coastal Resilience Against Storm Surge from Tropical Cyclones

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 725
Author(s):  
Robert Mendelsohn ◽  
Liang Zheng
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The United States ◽  
Atlantic Seaboard ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Coastal Resilience

It is well known that seawalls are effective at stopping common storm surges in urban areas. This paper examines whether seawalls should be built to withstand the storm surge from a major tropical cyclone. We estimate the extra cost of building the wall tall enough to stop such surges and the extra flood benefit of this additional height. We estimate the surge probability distribution from six tidal stations spread along the Atlantic seaboard of the United States. We then measure how valuable the vulnerable buildings behind a 100 m wall must be to justify such a tall wall at each site. Combining information about the probability distribution of storm surge, the average elevation of protected buildings, and the damage rate at each building, we find that the value of protected buildings behind this 100 m wall must be in the hundreds of millions to justify the wall. We also examine the additional flood benefit and cost of protecting a km2 of land in nearby cities at each site. The density of buildings in coastal cities in the United States are generally more than an order of magnitude too low to justify seawalls this high. Seawalls are effective, but not at stopping the surge damage from major tropical cyclones.

scholarly journals Remote sensing of phytoplankton community composition along the northeast coast of the United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 115 (12) ◽  
pp. 3731-3747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoju Pan ◽  
Antonio Mannino ◽  
Harold G. Marshall ◽  
Katherine C. Filippino ◽  
Margaret R. Mulholland
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Community Composition ◽  
Phytoplankton Community ◽  
The United States ◽  
Phytoplankton Community Composition ◽  
Northeast Coast

Spatial and temporal distribution of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) along the northeast coast of the United States, 1985–1999

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (6) ◽  
pp. 1151-1161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary K. Radlinski ◽  
Miles A. Sundermeyer ◽  
James J. Bisagni ◽  
Steven X. Cadrin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Continental Shelf ◽  
Gulf Of Maine ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Distribution ◽  
Atlantic Mackerel ◽  
Scomber Scombrus ◽  
Northeast Coast

Abstract Radlinski, M. K., Sundermeyer, M. A., Bisagni, J. J., and Cadrin, S. X. 2013. Spatial and temporal distribution of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) along the northeast coast of the United States, 1985–1999. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1151–1161. The distribution of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) during their spring migration along the Mid-Atlantic Bight and into the Gulf of Maine has historically been associated with spring warming along the continental shelf. Variations in mackerel distributions based on National Marine Fisheries Service spring surveys were compared with variations in sea surface temperature (SST) from satellite remote sensing for the eastern US continental shelf for the period 1985–1999. The mackerel stock was first analysed as a unit, then separated into three size classes to assess differences in distribution among years and individuals of various lengths. Results showed an across-shelf correlation between catch and March SST in the Mid-Atlantic Bight for both the entire population and each size class. Along-shelf catch variations were correlated with SST for large mackerel, but not total stock or smaller size classes. Finally, the distribution of mackerel length in the Gulf of Maine was negatively correlated with March SST in the Great South Channel. Results suggest surface temperature along the northeast continental shelf may be used to predict certain, but not all, aspects of annual migration along the shelf, and that factors in addition to temperature are also important in controlling distributions of Atlantic mackerel.

scholarly journals Automated data-intensive forecasting of plant phenology throughout the United States

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn D. Taylor ◽  
Ethan P. White
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Plant Phenology ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Phenological Data ◽  
Data Intensive ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Automated Forecasting

AbstractPhenology - the timing of cyclical and seasonal natural phenomena such as flowering and leaf out - is an integral part of ecological systems with impacts on human activities like environmental management, tourism, and agriculture. As a result, there are numerous potential applications for actionable predictions of when phenological events will occur. However, despite the availability of phenological data with large spatial, temporal, and taxonomic extents, and numerous phenology models, there has been no automated species-level forecasts of plant phenology. This is due in part to the challenges of building a system that integrates large volumes of climate observations and forecasts, uses that data to fit models and make predictions for large numbers of species, and consistently disseminates the results of these forecasts in interpretable ways. Here we describe a new near-term phenology forecasting system that makes predictions for the timing of budburst, flowers, ripe fruit, and fall colors for 78 species across the United States up to 6 months in advance and is updated every four days. We use the lessons learned in developing this system to provide guidance developing large-scale near-term ecological forecast systems more generally, to help advance the use of automated forecasting in ecology.

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