Towards an Ontology for Impact Projection of Complex Decisions

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision System ◽  
Constant Change ◽  
Work Tasks ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
The Impact

Complex decisions are an unusual process, composed of actions. An impact is a measure of the tangible and intangible consequences of one thing on another. Impacts are interdependent, and the environment in which they are measured generates constant change for decision making. This paper proposes the impact projection’s conceptualization, organized into a meta-ontology called OntoImpact. It comprises concepts that are crucial in supporting the understanding and representation of impact projections for complex decisions. The main contribution of OntoImpact is to support decision-makers in their work tasks, besides providing bases to support the development of a complex decision system. This paper was evaluated in a case study of an emergency domain. The results show that OntoImpact provides elements that can support complex decision analysis and project impacts in a collaborative way.

Drifting the goals archetype: a systemic study

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virupaxi Bagodi ◽  
Biswajit Mahanty
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Current Reality

PurposeManagerial decision-making is an area of interest to both academia and practitioners. Researchers found that managers often fail to manage complex decision-making tasks and system thinkers assert that generic structures known as systems archetypes help them to a great deal in handling such situations. In this paper, it is demonstrated that decision makers resort to lowering of goal (quick-fix) in order to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality in the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.Design/methodology/approachA real-life case study is taken up to highlight the pitfalls of “drifting the goals” systems archetype for a decision situation in the Indian two-wheeler industry. System dynamics modeling is made use of to obtain the results.FindingsThe decision makers fail to realize the pitfall of lowering the goal to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality. It is seen that, irrespective of current less-than-desirable performance, managers adopting corrective actions other than lowering of goals perform better in the long run. Further, it is demonstrated that extending the boundary and experimentation results in designing a better service system and setting benchmarks.Practical implicationsThe best possible way to avoid the pitfall is to hold the vision and not lower the long term goal. The managers must be aware of the pitfalls beforehand.Originality/valueSystems thinking is important in complex decision-making tasks. Managers need to embrace long-term perspective in decision-making. This paper demonstrates the value of systems thinking in terms of a case study on the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.

Risiko- und Notfallmanagement unter Unsicherheit (Teil 2)

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-16
Author(s):  
Jutta Geldermann ◽  
Valentin Bertsch ◽  
Florian Gering
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Situation ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Accident Scenario ◽  
Complex Decision

Komplexe Entscheidungssituationen, wie sie beispielsweise im Notfall- und Sanierungsmanagement nach einem kerntechnischen Störfall auftreten, erfordern eine Berücksichtigung technischer, ökonomischer, ökologischer, sozio-psychologischer und politischer Aspekte. Ansätze der Mehrzielentscheidungsunterstützung ermöglichen eine aggregierte Betrachtung verschiedener Aspekte, das Miteinbeziehen der subjektiven Präferenzen der Entscheidungsträger und tragen zu mehr Transparenz und Nachvollziehbarkeit von Entscheidungsprozessen bei. Dieser Beitrag befasst sich schwerpunktmäßig mit der Betrachtung von Unsicherheiten in solchen Entscheidungsprozessen. Zur Modellierung, Fortpflanzung und Visualisierung von Unsicherheiten wird ein Monte-Carlo-Ansatz vorgestellt und beispielhaft auf Daten eines fiktiven nuklearen Unfallszenarios angewendet. Generell ist der Ansatz jedoch auf allgemeine komplexe Entscheidungssituationen erweiterbar, insbesondere auf den Bereich sonstiger industrieller Notfälle. Eine interessante Fragestellung besteht weiterhin in der Untersuchung der Auswirkungen industrieller Notfälle auf die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette. Der erste Teil des Aufsatzes wurde bereits in Der Betriebswirt 1/2011 veröffentlicht, der letzte Teil folgt in Ausgabe 3/2011. Complex decision situations, such as in nuclear emergency and remediation management, require the consideration of technical, economic, ecological, socio-psychological and political aspects. Approaches for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) help to take into account various incommensurable aspects and subjective preferences of the decision makers and thus contribute to transparency and traceability of decision processes. This paper focuses on the handling of uncertainties in such decision processes. Monte Carlo approaches can be used to model, propagate and finally visualise the uncertainties, as a case study on a hypothetical radiological accident scenario illustrates. In general, the presented approach can be adopted for any complex decision situation, especially for industrial emergencies. Further research would be necessary for the analysis of their consequences for entire supply chains. Keywords: risiko und notfallmanagement unter unsicherheit

scholarly journals Decision-making on Implementation of IPO Under Topological Uncertainty

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 193-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karel Doubravský ◽  
Tomáš Meluzín ◽  
Mirko Dohnal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Trees ◽  
Initial Public Offering ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Structure Topology ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Flexible Integration ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Public Offering

IPO (Initial Public Offering) is a complex decision making task which is always associated with different types of uncertainty. Poor accuracies of available probabilities of lotteries e.g. quantification of investor interest is studied in the first part of this paper (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). However, IPO is often prohibitively ill-known. This paper takes into consideration the fact that decision makers cannot specify the structure/topology of the relevant decision tree. It means that one IPO task is specified by several (partially) different decision trees which comes from different sources e.g. from different teams of decision makers/experts. A flexible integration of those trees is based on fuzzy logic using the reconciliation (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). The developed algorithm is demonstrated by a case study which is presented in details. The IPO case integrates two partially different decision trees.

Risiko- und Notfallmanagement unter Unsicherheit - Teil 1

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-32
Author(s):  
Jutta Geldermann ◽  
Valentin Bertsch ◽  
Florian Gering
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Situation ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Accident Scenario ◽  
Complex Decision

Komplexe Entscheidungssituationen, wie sie beispielsweise im Notfall- und Sanierungsmanagement nach einem kerntechnischen Störfall auftreten, erfordern eine Berücksichtigung technischer, ökonomischer, ökologischer, sozio-psychologischer und politischer Aspekte. Ansätze der Mehrzielentscheidungsunterstützung ermöglichen eine aggregierte Betrachtung verschiedener Aspekte, das Miteinbeziehen der subjektiven Präferenzen der Entscheidungsträger und tragen zu mehr Transparenz und Nachvollziehbarkeit von Entscheidungsprozessen bei. Dieser Beitrag befasst sich schwerpunktmäßig mit der Betrachtung von Unsicherheiten in solchen Entscheidungsprozessen. Zur Modellierung, Fortpflanzung und Visualisierung von Unsicherheiten wird ein Monte-Carlo-Ansatz vorgestellt und beispielhaft auf Daten eines fiktiven nuklearen Unfallszenarios angewendet. Generell ist der Ansatz jedoch auf allgemeine komplexe Entscheidungssituationen erweiterbar, insbesondere auf den Bereich sonstiger industrieller Notfälle. Eine interessante Fragestellung besteht weiterhin in der Untersuchung der Auswirkungen industrieller Notfälle auf die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette. Complex decision situations, such as in nuclear emergency and remediation management, require the consideration of technical, economic, ecological, socio-psychological and political aspects. Approaches for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) help to take into account various incommensurable aspects and subjective preferences of the decision makers and thus contribute to transparency and traceability of decision processes. This paper focuses on the handling of uncertainties in such decision processes. Monte Carlo approaches can be used to model, propagate and finally visualise the uncertainties, as a case study on a hypothetical radiological accident scenario illustrates. In general, the presented approach can be adopted for any complex decision situation, especially for industrial emergencies. Further research would be necessary for the analysis of their consequences for entire supply chains. Keywords: risiko und notfallmanagement unter unsicherheit

scholarly journals Why are decisions for oil and gas projects not always made the way they ‘should' be?

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 130 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Newman ◽  
Steve Begg ◽  
Matthew Welsh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Quality ◽  
Good Decision ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Business Outcomes ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
The Impact

The outcomes of many business decisions do not live up to expectations or possibilities. A literature review of neuroscience and psychological factors that affect decision making has been undertaken, highlighting many reasons why it is hard for people to be good decision makers, particularly in complex and uncertain situations such as oil and gas projects. One way to diminish the impact of these human factors is to use the structured methodology and tools of Decision Analysis, which have been developed and used over 50 years, for making good decisions. Interviews with senior personnel from oil and gas operating companies, followed up by a larger-scale survey, were conducted to determine whether or how Decision Analysis and Decision Quality are used and why they are used in particular ways. The results showed that Decision Analysis and Decision Quality are not used as often as the participants think they should be; some 90% of respondents believed that they should be used for key project decisions, but only ~50% said that they are used. Six propositions were tested for why Decision Analysis and Decision Quality are not used more, and the following three were deemed to be supported: • Decision Analysis and Decision Quality are not well understood. • There is reliance on experience and judgment for decision-making. • Projects are schedule-driven. Further research is proposed to determine the underlying causes, and tackle those, with the aim being to improve business outcomes by determining how to influence decision makers to use Decision Analysis and Decision Quality more effectively.

scholarly journals MULTI-CRITERIA MODEL BASED ON LINGUISTIC NEUTROSOPHIC NUMBERS: THE SELECTION OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Goran Ćirović ◽  
Dragan Pamučar ◽  
Nataša Popović-Miletić
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Linguistic Neutrosophic Numbers ◽  
Selection Of

The paper presents a new approach in treating uncertainty and subjectivity in the decision making process based on the modification of Multi Attributive Border Approximation area Comparison (MABAC) and an Objective-Subjective (OS) model by applying linguistic neutrosophic numbers (LNN) instead of traditional numerical values. By integrating these models with linguistic neutrosophic numbers it was shown that it is possible to a significant extent to eliminate subjective qualitative assessments and assumptions by decision makers in complex decision-making conditions. On this basis, a new hybrid LNN OS-MABAC model was formed. This model was tested and validated on a case-study of the selection of optimal unmanned aircraft intended to combat forest fires.

A reliability diagnosis to support servitization decision-making process

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 502-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarra Dahmani ◽  
Xavier Boucher ◽  
Sophie Peillon ◽  
Béatrix Besombes
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Decision System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Process Reliability

Purpose – Servitization of manufacturing is characterized by very complex decision processes within strongly unstable and uncertain decision contexts. Decision-makers are face situations of lack of internal and external information. The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision aid approach to support the management of servitization decision-making processes. Design/methodology/approach – The scientific orientation of this research consists in working at improving the efficiency of the servitization decision-making process, by identifying factors of non-reliability, in order to propose remediation actions for the whole process. Improving the final decisions taken by the managers is considered as a consequence of the improvement of the decision-making process reliability. The method, based on modeling and evaluation, requires the specification of a decision process model for servitization, used as a basis to assess decision process reliability and diagnose the enterprise’s servitization decision system. Improving the final decisions made by the managers is considered as a consequence of the improvement of the decision-making process reliability. Findings – Key added values: first, to formalize a servitization decision-making reference model; second, to specify a reliability assessment applied to the decision system; and third, to define a decision process reliability diagnosis procedure for servitization, illustrated in a case study. Research limitations/implications – A direct perspective is to complete the focus on procedural reliability, by taking into consideration the subjective rationality of decision-makers in the reliability assessment procedure. Additionally, this reliability assessment method and diagnosis could become the basis of a larger risk management approach for servitization. Practical implications – The diagnosis procedure proposed in the paper is dedicated to generating practical results for enterprise decision-makers, consisting in recommendations for decision process improvements, in the context of servitization. The approach is illustrated through an industrial SME case study. The practical implications are highly contextualized. Originality/value – The key originality of this research is to tackle servitization complexity with a decision system modeling and diagnosis orientation, including the formalization of the notion of “decision process reliability,” and the specification and implementation of a quantitative assessment procedure.

Risiko- und Notfallmanagement unter Unsicherheit (Teil 3)

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 10-14
Author(s):  
Jutta Geldermann ◽  
Valentin Bertsch ◽  
Florian Gering
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Situation ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Accident Scenario ◽  
Complex Decision

Komplexe Entscheidungssituationen, wie sie beispielsweise im Notfall- und Sanierungsmanagement nach einem kerntechnischen Störfall auftreten, erfordern eine Berücksichtigung technischer, ökonomischer, ökologischer, sozio-psychologischer und politischer Aspekte. Ansätze der Mehrzielentscheidungsunterstützung ermöglichen eine aggregierte Betrachtung verschiedener Aspekte, das Miteinbeziehen der subjektiven Präferenzen der Entscheidungsträger und tragen zu mehr Transparenz und Nachvollziehbarkeit von Entscheidungsprozessen bei. Dieser Beitrag befasst sich schwerpunktmäßig mit der Betrachtung von Unsicherheiten in solchen Entscheidungsprozessen. Zur Modellierung, Fortpflanzung und Visualisierung von Unsicherheiten wird ein Monte-Carlo-Ansatz vorgestellt und beispielhaft auf Daten eines fiktiven nuklearen Unfallszenarios angewendet. Generell ist der Ansatz jedoch auf allgemeine komplexe Entscheidungssituationen erweiterbar, insbesondere auf den Bereich sonstiger industrieller Notfälle. Eine interessante Fragestellung besteht weiterhin in der Untersuchung der Auswirkungen industrieller Notfälle auf die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette. Die ersten Teile des Aufsatzes wurden bereits in Der Betriebswirt 1/2011 und 2/2011 veröffentlicht. Complex decision situations, such as in nuclear emergency and remediation management, require the consideration of technical, economic, ecological, socio-psychological and political aspects. Approaches for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) help to take into account various incommensurable aspects and subjective preferences of the decision makers and thus contribute to transparency and traceability of decision processes. This paper focuses on the handling of uncertainties in such decision processes. Monte Carlo approaches can be used to model, propagate and finally visualise the uncertainties, as a case study on a hypothetical radiological accident scenario illustrates. In general, the presented approach can be adopted for any complex decision situation, especially for industrial emergencies. Further research would be necessary for the analysis of their consequences for entire supply chains. Keywords: risiko und notfallmanagement unter unsicherheit

scholarly journals Impact of organizational factors on delays in BIM-based coordination from a decision-making view: a case study

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sejun JANG ◽  
Ghang LEE
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Organizational Factors ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Information Modeling ◽  
Project Delivery ◽  
Building Information ◽  
Coordination Process ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzed the impact of organizational factors on delays in building information modeling (BIM)- based coordination for mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems from the decision-making perspective. Recently BIM-based coordination has been regarded as a critical phase in project delivery but suffers from delays during the coordination process. This study investigated three complexity factors that often contribute to coordination delays: the number of participants – the total number of participants involved in a decision-making process for resolving a coordination issue; the level of the decision makers – the highest decision-maker involved in a problem-resolution process; and the heterogeneity of participants –the number of trades related to an issue. Using 95 major coordination issues derived from 11,808 clashes in a case study, the correlations between the coordination time and the complexity factors were analyzed. The coordination time linearly increased as each factor increased. The number of participants had the highest correlation with the coordination time, followed by the level of decision makers and the heterogeneity of participants. The findings stress the significance of integration between BIM and lean approaches, such as Obeya (big room) and Shojinka (flexible manpower line), during BIM-based coordination to expedite decision-making processes and eventually to reduce the coordination time.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making Analysis Based on Target-Oriented OWA Operator

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (06) ◽  
pp. 911-938
Author(s):  
Meimei Xia
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Weight Vector ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Owa Operator ◽  
Ordered Weighted Averaging ◽  
The Impact

The target-oriented multi-criteria decision making is investigated based on the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator. The criteria evaluations are measured by using the likelihood of satisfying the targets of criteria. To aggregate the target-oriented criteria evaluations, the target-oriented OWA operator is firstly introduced, in which the target-oriented criteria evaluations are reordered and then aggregated by using the weight vector associated with the position of criteria evaluations. Four types of targets about criteria evaluations and four types of attitudinal characters about criteria weight vector are introduced, based on which, models are given to identify the potential best alternative(s), and estimate the ranges of attitudinal characters about criteria weight vector for each potential best alternative. The proposed models can not only analyze the sensitivity of each potential best alternative, but also can explore the impact of targets about criteria evaluations and attitudinal characters about criteria weight vector on the decision results. Models are further established to find the best and worst ranking orders of each alternative based on targets about criteria evaluations, and give decision analysis by considering specific ranking orders of alternatives. The proposed method considers the targets about criteria evaluations and attitudinal character about criteria weight vector at the same time and can provide decision makers more choices. Several examples are given to illustrate the proposed methods.

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