scholarly journals Why are decisions for oil and gas projects not always made the way they ‘should' be?

2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 130 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Newman ◽  
Steve Begg ◽  
Matthew Welsh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Quality ◽  
Good Decision ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Business Outcomes ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
The Impact

The outcomes of many business decisions do not live up to expectations or possibilities. A literature review of neuroscience and psychological factors that affect decision making has been undertaken, highlighting many reasons why it is hard for people to be good decision makers, particularly in complex and uncertain situations such as oil and gas projects. One way to diminish the impact of these human factors is to use the structured methodology and tools of Decision Analysis, which have been developed and used over 50 years, for making good decisions. Interviews with senior personnel from oil and gas operating companies, followed up by a larger-scale survey, were conducted to determine whether or how Decision Analysis and Decision Quality are used and why they are used in particular ways. The results showed that Decision Analysis and Decision Quality are not used as often as the participants think they should be; some 90% of respondents believed that they should be used for key project decisions, but only ~50% said that they are used. Six propositions were tested for why Decision Analysis and Decision Quality are not used more, and the following three were deemed to be supported: • Decision Analysis and Decision Quality are not well understood. • There is reliance on experience and judgment for decision-making. • Projects are schedule-driven. Further research is proposed to determine the underlying causes, and tackle those, with the aim being to improve business outcomes by determining how to influence decision makers to use Decision Analysis and Decision Quality more effectively.

Stressed decision makers and use of decision aids: a literature review and conceptual model

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 710-754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Adya ◽  
Gloria Phillips-Wren
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Perceived Stress ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Quality ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Decision making is inherently stressful since the decision maker must choose between potentially conflicting alternatives with unique hazards and uncertain outcomes. Whereas decision aids such as decision support systems (DSS) can be beneficial in stressful scenarios, decision makers sometimes misuse them during decision making, leading to suboptimal outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between stress, decision making and decision aid use. Design/methodology/approach The authors conduct an extensive multi-disciplinary review of decision making and DSS use through the lens of stress and examine how stress, as perceived by decision makers, impacts their use or misuse of DSS even when such aids can improve decision quality. Research questions examine underlying sources of stress in managerial decision making that influence decision quality, relationships between a decision maker’s perception of stress, DSS use/misuse, and decision quality, and implications for research and practice on DSS design and capabilities. Findings The study presents a conceptual model that provides an integrative behavioral view of the impact of a decision maker’s perceived stress on their use of a DSS and the quality of their decisions. The authors identify critical knowledge gaps and propose a research agenda to improve decision quality and use of DSS by considering a decision maker’s perceived stress. Originality/value This study provides a previously unexplored view of DSS use and misuse as shaped by the decision and job stress experienced by decision makers. Through the application of four theories, the review and its findings highlight key design principles that can mitigate the negative effects of stressors on DSS use.

From Uncertainty Quantification to Decision Making in the Oil and Gas Industry

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 311-325 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Eric Bickel ◽  
Reidar B. Bratvold
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Good Faith ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Good Decision ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Large N ◽  
Survey Results

In this paper, we present the findings of a large (N = 494) survey of oil and gas professionals that addressed the following two questions: Has uncertainty quantification improved in the oil and gas industry over the last five years? Has this improvement translated into improved decision making? Our results suggest that the answer to the first question in an unequivocal “yes,” but that the answer to the second is qualified “no.” How could this be? Uncertainty quantification is not an end unto itself; removing or even reducing uncertainty is not the goal. Rather, the objective is to make a good decision, which in many cases requires the assessment of the relevant uncertainties. The oil and gas industry seems to have lost sight of this goal in its good-faith effort to provide decision makers with a richer understanding of the possible outcomes flowing from major decisions. The industry implicitly believes that making good decisions merely requires more information. To counter this, we present a decision-focused uncertainty quantification framework, which we hope, in combination with our survey results, will aid in the innovation of better decision-making tools and methodologies.

Towards an Ontology for Impact Projection of Complex Decisions

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision System ◽  
Constant Change ◽  
Work Tasks ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
The Impact

Complex decisions are an unusual process, composed of actions. An impact is a measure of the tangible and intangible consequences of one thing on another. Impacts are interdependent, and the environment in which they are measured generates constant change for decision making. This paper proposes the impact projection’s conceptualization, organized into a meta-ontology called OntoImpact. It comprises concepts that are crucial in supporting the understanding and representation of impact projections for complex decisions. The main contribution of OntoImpact is to support decision-makers in their work tasks, besides providing bases to support the development of a complex decision system. This paper was evaluated in a case study of an emergency domain. The results show that OntoImpact provides elements that can support complex decision analysis and project impacts in a collaborative way.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making Analysis Based on Target-Oriented OWA Operator

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (06) ◽  
pp. 911-938
Author(s):  
Meimei Xia
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Weight Vector ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Owa Operator ◽  
Ordered Weighted Averaging ◽  
The Impact

The target-oriented multi-criteria decision making is investigated based on the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator. The criteria evaluations are measured by using the likelihood of satisfying the targets of criteria. To aggregate the target-oriented criteria evaluations, the target-oriented OWA operator is firstly introduced, in which the target-oriented criteria evaluations are reordered and then aggregated by using the weight vector associated with the position of criteria evaluations. Four types of targets about criteria evaluations and four types of attitudinal characters about criteria weight vector are introduced, based on which, models are given to identify the potential best alternative(s), and estimate the ranges of attitudinal characters about criteria weight vector for each potential best alternative. The proposed models can not only analyze the sensitivity of each potential best alternative, but also can explore the impact of targets about criteria evaluations and attitudinal characters about criteria weight vector on the decision results. Models are further established to find the best and worst ranking orders of each alternative based on targets about criteria evaluations, and give decision analysis by considering specific ranking orders of alternatives. The proposed method considers the targets about criteria evaluations and attitudinal character about criteria weight vector at the same time and can provide decision makers more choices. Several examples are given to illustrate the proposed methods.

Post-Investment Reviews of Oil and Gas Projects: Methodology, Lessons Learnt, and Limitations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur Melet
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Stakeholder Management ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Capital Projects ◽  
Lessons Learnt ◽  
Operation Stage ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objectives/scope Discuss the analytical framework created by ADNOC for the implementation of post-investment reviews (PIR) of previous capital projects, and present an overview of both the results, the lessons learnt and the limitations of such exercises, based on ADNOC's return of experience on PIRs. Without sharing confidential project information, the article will focus on providing actionable insights on ADNOC's chosen approach for PIRs, including best practices in terms of data and stakeholder management. Methods, procedures, process The overall approach can be summarized as follows: Project choice: what are the tangible criteria to be used to focus PIRs on the capital projects with the highest potential in terms of learning opportunity? Data collection: what are the minimum data requirements to conduct a PIR for an O&G project? Variance analysis: what rules need to be followed to be able to generate two economics models (initial vs updated) that can be compared? Root cause analysis: how to organize the analysis process to explain the identified variances? Results, observations, conclusions PIRs can play an important role in the continuous improvement of O&G companies’ operations at the pre-investment stage, capital investment stage, and operation stage: At the investment stage, a PIR can provide insights into the effectiveness of the decision-making and, specifically, help to identify improvement areas in the valuation (project economics), assumptions, risk management, and decision-making processes. At the execution stage, PIRs can be useful to quantify the impact of project delays and cost overruns on the overall project economics, and associate such variances with the relevant underlying causes. At the operation stage, PIRs be useful to quantify the impact of OPEX, production, and price variances (actual – forecast) on overall project economics, and associate such variances with the relevant underlying causes. Limitations of PIRs Uncertainty on what projects are likely to yield the best learning opportunities. Subjectivity: PIRs are partly subjective, as the results are largely dependent on data availability and methodological choices. Applicability of recommendations and acceptance from key stakeholders

scholarly journals Proposal of a Measurement Scale of Decision Quality in Infrastructure Projects in Oil and Gas Exploitation

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 272
Author(s):  
Gerardo Palacios Leyva ◽  
Juan Carlos Perez Garcia
Keyword(s):  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Decision Quality ◽  
Measurement Scale ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Good Decision ◽  
Good Outcome ◽  
Common Components

The objective in this paper is to present a proposal of a scale to measure the decision quality in infrastructure projects in the exploitation of oil and gas, as well as its foundations. One of the most important distinctions of Decision Analysis is the differentiation between a good decision and a good outcome, which is the approach of the scale, which occurs when decision making faces uncertainty. Therefore, a good decision does not always produce a good outcome. From this distinction, a progressive scale was designed, using an adjustment of the pairwise comparisons based on the Saaty scale achieving a quantitative hierarchy, which shows whether the decision guarantees quality, does not guarantee quality or is not acceptable. For its application, other existing decision processes used in the petroleum industry were located, from their common components a standardized decision analysis process was created, the common components are appropriate frame, objectives, decision and alternatives, risk and uncertainty, possibilities and modelling, values and exchanges and implementation and each of them subdivided into key aspects that are object of the measurement and evaluation. The objective set in a first stage was the proposed model of the measurement scale of decision quality and is subject to future validation work to verify its applicability in real life in a second stage.

scholarly journals An Innovative Grey Approach for Group Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Based on the Median of Ratings by Using Python

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Dragiša Stanujkić ◽  
Darjan Karabašević ◽  
Gabrijela Popović ◽  
Predrag S. Stanimirović ◽  
Florentin Smarandache ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Likert Scale ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Interval Numbers ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

Some decision-making problems, i.e., multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) problems, require taking into account the attitudes of a large number of decision-makers and/or respondents. Therefore, an approach to the transformation of crisp ratings, collected from respondents, in grey interval numbers form based on the median of collected scores, i.e., ratings, is considered in this article. In this way, the simplicity of collecting respondents’ attitudes using crisp values, i.e., by applying some form of Likert scale, is combined with the advantages that can be achieved by using grey interval numbers. In this way, a grey extension of MCDA methods is obtained. The application of the proposed approach was considered in the example of evaluating the websites of tourism organizations by using several MCDA methods. Additionally, an analysis of the application of the proposed approach in the case of a large number of respondents, done in Python, is presented. The advantages of the proposed method, as well as its possible limitations, are summarized.

Jumping to conclusions – an analysis of the NBA Draft Combine athleticism data and its influence on managerial decision-making

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Berger ◽  
Frank Daumann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Quality ◽  
Managerial Behavior ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Selection Behavior

PurposeThe NBA Draft policy pursues the goal to provide the weakest teams with the most talented young players to close the gap to the superior competition. But it hinges on appropriate talent evaluation skills of the respective organizations. Research suggests the policy might be valid but to date unable to produce its intended results due to the “human judgement-factor”. This paper investigates specific managerial selection-behavior-influencing information to examine why decision-makers seem to fail to constantly seize the opportunities the draft presents them with.Design/methodology/approachAthleticism data produced within the NBA Draft Combine setting is strongly considered in the player evaluations and consequently informs the draft decisions of NBA managers. Curiously, research has failed to find much predictive power within the players pre-draft combine results for their post-draft performance. This paper investigates this clear disconnect, by examining the pre- and post-draft data from 2000 to 2019 using principal component and regression analysis.FindingsEvidence for an athletic-induced decision-quality-lowering bias within the NBA Draft process was found. The analysis proves that players with better NBA Draft Combine results tend to get drafted earlier. Controlling for position, age and pre-draft performance there seems to be no proper justification based on post-draft performance for this managerial behavior. This produces systematic errors within the structure of the NBA Draft process and leads to problematic outcomes for the entire league-policy.Originality/valueThe paper delivers first evidence for an athleticism-induced decision-making bias regarding the NBA Draft process. Informing future selection-behavior of managers this research could improve NBA Draft decision-making quality.

Fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making to identify the order of establishing temporary logistics hubs during disaster response

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajali Maharjan ◽  
Shinya Hanaoka
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Numerical Illustration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Post Disaster

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reveal the importance of the order of establishment of temporary logistics hubs (TLHs) when resources (mobile storage units used as TLHs) are limited and to present the development and implementation of a methodology that determines the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making. Design/methodology/approach It employed a decision support system that considers multiple decision makers and subjective attributes, while also addressing the impreciseness inherent in post-disaster decision making for ordering the establishment of TLHs. To do so, an optimization model was combined with a fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making approach. A numerical illustration was performed using data from the April 2015 Nepal Earthquake. Findings The results showed the location and order of establishment of TLHs, and demonstrated the impact of decision makers’ opinions on the overall ordering. Research limitations/implications The study does not discuss the uncertain nature of the location problem and the potential need for relocation of TLHs. Practical implications This methodology offers managerial insights for post-disaster decision making when resources are limited and their effective utilization is vital. The results highlight the importance of considering the opinions of multiple actors/decision makers to enable coordination and avoid complication between the growing numbers of humanitarian responders during disaster response. Originality/value This study introduces the concept of the order of establishment of TLHs and demonstrates its importance when resources are limited. It develops and implements a methodology determining the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making.

The Impact of Conflict- Generating Techniques on Student Reactions and Decision Quality

1995 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 39-45
Author(s):  
Granger Macy ◽  
Joan C. Neal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Business Students ◽  
Decision Quality ◽  
Structured Decision Making ◽  
Constructive Conflict ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Student Reactions ◽  
Graduate Business Students ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the effectiveness of conflict-generating decision-making techniques in the college classroom. Utiliz ing constructive conflict in classroom exercises may affect decision-making quality and student reactions. This study of undergraduate and graduate business students found significant difference in both the quality of the decisions and in student reactions to the techniques. The findings and discussion indicate the potential for appropriate use of structured decision-making techniques in the classroom.

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