A Practical Guide to Updating Beliefs From Contradictory Evidence

Econometrica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 89 (1) ◽  
pp. 415-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan Sadler
Keyword(s):  
Representation Theorem ◽  
Belief Formation ◽  
Impossibility Theorem ◽  
Bayesian Reasoning ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Practical Guide ◽  
Complex Information ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Contradictory Evidence ◽  
As If

We often make high stakes choices based on complex information that we have no way to verify. Careful Bayesian reasoning—assessing every reason why a claim could be false or misleading—is not feasible, so we necessarily act on faith: we trust certain sources and treat claims as if they were direct observations of payoff relevant events. This creates a challenge when trusted sources conflict: Practically speaking, is there a principled way to update beliefs in response to contradictory claims? I propose a model of belief formation along with several updating axioms. An impossibility theorem shows there is no obvious best answer, while a representation theorem delineates the boundary of what is possible.

scholarly journals انتقاد المعاصرين لأحاديث الصحيحين الخاصة بالأماكن والبلدان

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 74-93
Author(s):  
Mohd Yusri Yusuf ◽  
Mahmud Ahmad Yaaqub Rasheed
Keyword(s):  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
Contradictory Evidence ◽  
The Law ◽  
As If

Al-Sahihayn are the major hadith compilations in which contains the sources of the law second only to the al-Quran al-Karim. In light of the high prominence rendered to them, it is not surprising that it is often the target for modern-day criticism as well as of the past whether in the form of scholarly criticism or point-blank slanderous. This study was conducted to discuss the modern scholarly criticism of selected hadiths in al-Sahihayn and to answer all the criticism that had been thrown. They made the hadith as a field of criticism as if to impose on the public that the hadith is contrary to the al-Quran, one that nullifies the infallibility of the Prophet (peace be upon him), one that which is unauthentic and devoid of credence. Data for this research is obtained through literary reviews before the same be subjected to analysis based on inductive and deductive methods. The findings of this study reveal contradictory evidence which proves the validity that hadiths and simultaneously answers and denies the criticism.

Measuring networks in the field

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Larson ◽  
Janet I. Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Network Theory ◽  
New Technique ◽  
Relational Data ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Practical Guide ◽  
Complex Design ◽  
A New Technique

AbstractMeasuring networks in the field—usually by asking individuals systematically about their networks–entails complex design choices, with large consequences for the resulting data. Because observations in a network are interconnected, well-established practices from non-network survey settings can lead researchers astray. Despite the increasing focus on networks in political science, little guidance is available for researchers facing high-stakes decisions when designing a study to elicit networks. This paper serves as a practical guide. It offers a simple framework for constructing a network theory, illuminates tradeoffs like measuring more nodes versus more ties per node or asking for names versus selections from a list, and proposes a new technique for cleaning relational data.

scholarly journals COSTLY FALSE BELIEFS: WHAT SELF-DECEPTION AND PRAGMATIC ENCROACHMENT CAN TELL US ABOUT THE RATIONALITY OF BELIEFS

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-118
Author(s):  
Melanie Sarzano
Keyword(s):  
Formation Mechanism ◽  
Belief Formation ◽  
False Beliefs ◽  
Pragmatic Encroachment ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
The Difference

In this paper, I compare cases of self-deception and cases of pragmatic encroachment and argue that confronting these cases generates a dilemma about rationality. This dilemma turns on the idea that subjects are motivated to avoid costly false beliefs, and that both cases of self-deception and cases of pragmatic encroachment are caused by an interest to avoid forming costly false beliefs. Even though both types of cases can be explained by the same belief-formation mechanism, only self-deceptive beliefs are irrational: the subjects depicted in high-stakes cases typically used in debates on pragmatic encroachment are, on the contrary, rational. If we find ourselves drawn to this dilemma, we are forced either to accept—against most views presented in the literature—that self-deception is rational or to accept that pragmatic encroachment is irrational. Assuming that both conclusions are undesirable, I argue that this dilemma can be solved. In order to solve this dilemma, I suggest and review several hypotheses aimed at explaining the difference in rationality between the two types of cases, the result of which being that the irrationality of self-deceptive beliefs does not entirely depend on their being formed via a motivationally biased process.

Oxford Handbook for Medical School

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Medical School ◽  
Career Decisions ◽  
First Year ◽  
Practical Skills ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Future Career ◽  
Practical Guide ◽  
Personal Finances ◽  
Final Exams ◽  
High Stakes Exams

Medical school is full of unfamiliar and often frightening experiences for students. In the first year, a student must move away from home, balance personal finances, assimilate large volumes of information, learn practical skills, pass high-stakes exams, and face a range of unique experiences. The Oxford Handbook for Medical School provides an essential, practical guide for all students, from receiving an offer and preparing for medical school, to starting as a student, preclinical years and exams, and intercalated degrees through to the clinical years, including succeeding on the wards and in clinic, right up to final exams and assessments, making career decisions, electives, and planning for the future. The handbook serves as a survival guide and an aid to navigating the range of opportunities medical school offers, as well as fully preparing students for their future career.

scholarly journals A REPRESENTATION THEOREM FOR VOTING WITH LOGICAL CONSEQUENCES

2006 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER GÄRDENFORS
Keyword(s):  
Social Choice ◽  
Representation Theorem ◽  
Impossibility Theorem ◽  
Choice Functions ◽  
Natural Conditions ◽  
Independence Of Irrelevant Alternatives ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Choice Functions ◽  
Central Result ◽  
Choice Set

This paper concerns voting with logical consequences, which means that anybody voting for an alternative x should vote for the logical consequences of x as well. Similarly, the social choice set is also supposed to be closed under logical consequences. The central result of the paper is that, given a set of fairly natural conditions, the only social choice functions that satisfy social logical closure are oligarchic (where a subset of the voters are decisive for the social choice). The set of conditions needed for the proof include a version of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives that also plays a central role in Arrow's impossibility theorem.

Understanding validity and fairness issues in high-stakes individual testing situations

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jade Caines ◽  
Beatrice L. Bridglall ◽  
Madhabi Chatterji
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Test ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Complex Information ◽  
Key Stakeholders ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Test Use ◽  
Development And Validation

Purpose – This policy brief discusses validity and fairness issues that could arise when test-based information is used for making “high stakes” decisions at an individual level, such as, for the certification of teachers or other professionals, or when admitting students into higher education programs and colleges, or for making immigration-related decisions for prospective immigrants. To assist test developers, affiliated researchers and test users enhance levels of validity and fairness with these particular types of test score interpretations and uses, this policy brief summarizes an “argument-based approach” to validation given by Kane. Design/methodology/approach – This policy brief is based on a synthesis of conference proceedings and review of selected pieces of extant literature. To that synthesis, the authors add practitioner-friendly examples with their own analysis of key issues. They conclude by offering recommendations for test developers and test users. Findings – The authors conclude that validity is a complex and evolving construct, especially when considering issues of fairness in individual testing contexts. Kane's argument-based approach offers an accessible framework through which test makers can accumulate evidence to evaluate inferences and arguments related to decisions to be made with test scores. Perspectives of test makers, researchers, test takers and decision-makers must all be incorporated into constructing coherent “validity arguments” to guide the test development and validation processes. Originality/value – Standardized test use for individual-level decisions is gradually spreading to various regions of the world, but understandings of validity are still uneven among key stakeholders of such testing programs. By translating complex information on test validation, validity and fairness issues with all concerned stakeholders in mind, this policy brief attempts to address the communication gaps noted to exist among these groups by Kane.

Direct observations of radiation-enhanced transformations in glass

1983 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. 354-355
Author(s):  
J. F. DeNatale ◽  
D. G. Howitt
Keyword(s):  
Glass Matrix ◽  
Diffusion Mechanism ◽  
Bubble Formation ◽  
Silicate Glasses ◽  
Phase Decomposition ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Thin Foils ◽  
Oxygen Bubble ◽  
Electron Energy Loss ◽  
Kinetics Of

The electron irradiation of silicate glasses containing metal cations produces various types of phase separation and decomposition which includes oxygen bubble formation at intermediate temperatures figure I. The kinetics of bubble formation are too rapid to be accounted for by oxygen diffusion but the behavior is consistent with a cation diffusion mechanism if the amount of oxygen in the bubble is not significantly different from that in the same volume of silicate glass. The formation of oxygen bubbles is often accompanied by precipitation of crystalline phases and/or amorphous phase decomposition in the regions between the bubbles and the detection of differences in oxygen concentration between the bubble and matrix by electron energy loss spectroscopy cannot be discerned (figure 2) even when the bubble occupies the majority of the foil depth.The oxygen bubbles are stable, even in the thin foils, months after irradiation and if van der Waals behavior of the interior gas is assumed an oxygen pressure of about 4000 atmospheres must be sustained for a 100 bubble if the surface tension with the glass matrix is to balance against it at intermediate temperatures.

Metallurgical Effects of Grain Boundary Ledges

1977 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 126-129
Author(s):  
L.E. Murr
Keyword(s):  
Grain Boundary ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Mechanical Treatment ◽  
Unit Length ◽  
Physical And Mechanical Properties ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Transmission Electron ◽  
Properties Of Materials ◽  
Thermo Mechanical Treatment ◽  
Ledge Density

Ledges in grain boundaries can be identified by their characteristic contrast features (straight, black-white lines) distinct from those of lattice dislocations, for example1,2 [see Fig. 1(a) and (b)]. Simple contrast rules as pointed out by Murr and Venkatesh2, can be established so that ledges may be recognized with come confidence, and the number of ledges per unit length of grain boundary (referred to as the ledge density, m) measured by direct observations in the transmission electron microscope. Such measurements can then give rise to quantitative data which can be used to provide evidence for the influence of ledges on the physical and mechanical properties of materials.It has been shown that ledge density can be systematically altered in some metals by thermo-mechanical treatment3,4.

Direct Observations of the Epitaxial Growth of Sputtered Ag on Si

1973 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
pp. 122-123
Author(s):  
J. S. Maa ◽  
Thos. E. Hutchinson
Keyword(s):  
Epitaxial Growth ◽  
Film Growth ◽  
Ion Beam ◽  
Ion Beam Sputtering ◽  
Microscopy Technique ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
In Situ Electron Microscopy ◽  
Beam Sputtering ◽  
The Subject

The growth of Ag films deposited on various substrate materials such as MoS2, mica, graphite, and MgO has been investigated extensively using the in situ electron microscopy technique. The three stages of film growth, namely, the nucleation, growth of islands followed by liquid-like coalescence have been observed in both the vacuum vapor deposited and ion beam sputtered thin films. The mechanisms of nucleation and growth of silver films formed by ion beam sputtering on the (111) plane of silicon comprise the subject of this paper. A novel mode of epitaxial growth is observed to that seen previously.The experimental arrangement for the present study is the same as previous experiments, and the preparation procedure for obtaining thin silicon substrate is presented in a separate paper.

Void-Lattice Formation in Natural Fluorite by Electron Irradiation

1976 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 614-615 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.E. Murr
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscope ◽  
Electron Irradiation ◽  
Heavy Ion ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Stoichiometric Ratio ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Transmission Electron ◽  
Anion Vacancies ◽  
Cation And Anion Vacancies ◽  
Lattice Formation

The production of void lattices in metals as a result of displacement damage associated with high energy and heavy ion bombardment is now well documented. More recently, Murr has shown that a void lattice can be developed in natural (colored) fluorites observed in the transmission electron microscope. These were the first observations of a void lattice in an irradiated nonmetal, and the first, direct observations of color-center aggregates. Clinard, et al. have also recently observed a void lattice (described as a high density of aligned "pores") in neutron irradiated Al2O3 and Y2O3. In this latter work, itwas pointed out that in order that a cavity be formed,a near-stoichiometric ratio of cation and anion vacancies must aggregate. It was reasoned that two other alternatives to explain the pores were cation metal colloids and highpressure anion gas bubbles.Evans has proposed that void lattices result from the presence of a pre-existing impurity lattice, and predicted that the formation of a void lattice should restrict swelling in irradiated materials because it represents a state of saturation.

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