scholarly journals MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AND THEIR IMPACT ON STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE IN THE SHORT AND LONG RUN: THE CASE OF THE BALTIC STATES / MAKROEKONOMINIAI RODIKLIAI IR JŲ ĮTAKA AKCIJŲ RINKOS INDEKSUI TRUMPUOJU IR ILGUOJU LAIKOTARPIU: BALTIJOS ŠALIŲ ATVEJIS

2010 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 291-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donatas Pilinkus
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Impact

The relation between macroeconomic variables and the movement of stock prices has well been documented in the literature over the last several decades. It is often argued that stock prices are determined by some fundamental macroeconomic variables. Therefore, macroeconomic variables can influence investment decisions and motivates many researchers to investigate the relation between stock market prices and macroeconomic variables. The current paper attempts to introduce the concepts of stock market and macroeconomic indicators, then to present a model of the impact of macroeconomic indicators on stock market index, and to define what macroeconomic indicators are related with stock market index in the short and long runs. The study investigates ten macroeconomic indicators and the main Baltic stock market indices. The data are monthly and extend from the January of 2000 to the December of 2008. Empirical research has been conducted with the Baltic States: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. With the reference to the results of performed analysis the interpretations of the relationships between macroeconomic indicators and stock market index from the viewpoint of investors have been formed. Santrauka Straipsnyje nagrinejama, kaip kompleksiškai įvertinti makroekonominių rodiklių įtaką akcijų rinkos indeksui. Atlikti teoriniai tyrimai leido sukurti modelį, kuris kompleksiškai įvertintų makroekonominių rodiklių ir akcijų rinkos indekso sąryšio priežastingumą bei priklausomybę trumpuoju ir ilguoju laikotarpiu. Nustatyta, kad objektyvus šio saryšio nustatymas turi remtis ne tik tinkamu makroekonominių rodiklių parinkimu, bet ir pagrįsta tyrimo metodologija, kompleksiškai įvertinančia makroekonominiu rodiklių ir akcijų rinkos indekso saryšio pokyčius trumpuoju bei ilguoju laikotarpiais. Tiriant priklausomybę tarp akcijų kainų ir makroekonominių veiksnių buvo naudojami statistiniai 2000–2008 m. Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos makroekonominių rodiklių bei Vilniaus, Rygos ir Talino vertybinių popierių biržos indekso duomenys. Siekiant įvertinti Baltijos šaliu makroekonominių rodiklių įtaka atskirų šalių akcijų kainoms, pasirinkti tokie makroekonominiai rodikliai, kurie perteikia šalių ekonomikos būklę ir jos kitima, skaičiuojami visose šalyse, lengvai prieinami statistinių duomenų šaltiniuose ir yra gana populiarūs. Remiantis atlikto tyrimo rezultatais, suformuotos makroekonominių rodiklių ir akcijų rinkos indekso saryšių interpretacijos investuotojo požiūriu.

scholarly journals Economic Interactions among Stock Market Performance and Macroeconomic Variables with Mediating Role of Gold Prices Volatilities: An Evidence from Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-394
Author(s):  
Rukhsana Rasheed ◽  
Mazhar Nadeem Ishaq ◽  
Rabia Anwar ◽  
Mehwish Shahid
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

In all emerging economies, one of the most challenging issues for investors is the multifaceted inter-relationship between volatility of gold prices and stock market index. During the COVID-19 sub-periods, gold has shown a strong hedging behavior against stock market performance. The main objective of this study was to quantify the long-run relationship among multiple independent macroeconomic variables (predictors) on stock market index (response variable) using the volatilities of gold prices as a mediator factor. This study applied the descriptive statistics, correlation, t-test and OLS multiple regression Model. The specific data comprised of period 2011-2020 regarding the fluctuations in gold prices, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate and performance of stock market index has been utilized. The statistical outputs of models showed that exchange rate (Dollar to PKR) was positively affecting the performance of Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)-100 Index, whereas inflation rate and interest rate were negatively affecting the overall performance of KSE100 index. The findings of this study suggested that to achieve better performance of stock market, relatively low interest rate and inflation rate contribute a significant role. However, to increase the generalization capabilities of this study the impact of mentioned macroeconomic variables in other sectors like industrial production, oil & gas and energy sectors with wider time span can be more helpful.

scholarly journals Assessing the reaction of the Baltic stock market to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 260-272
Author(s):  
Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene ◽  
Julius Kviklis
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Research Period

This research aims to assess the impact of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Baltic stock market. To reach this aim, the methods of bivariate (OLS) regression and VAR-based impulse response functions are employed. We use daily new cases of COVID-19 as well as the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases as independent and OMX Baltic Benchmark GI index as dependent variables for our research. The research period, covering data from 2020 March 1st  to 2020 November 21st, is divided into three separate periods, reflecting the different phases of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the research revealed that the market reaction differs depending on the period; moreover, the Baltic stock market index was affected by new cases and total cases in a slightly different manner.

scholarly journals Stock Market Responses to Macroeconomic Dynamics: Testing for Long-Run Equilibrium in Nepal

Pravaha ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-82
Author(s):  
Dipendra Education Karki
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Stock Market Performance

This study empirically examines the macro-economic factors of the stock market performance in Nepal. It considers the annual data of four macroeconomic variables; real GDP, inflation, interest rate and broad money supply from 1994 to 2016 and attempts to reveal the relative influence of these variables on stock prices represented by ‘NEPSE Index’ of the Nepalese capital market. Empirical results reveal that the performance of stock market is found to respond positively to real GDP, inflation and money supply, and negatively to interest rate. More importantly, cointegrating evidence cannot be found between macroeconomic variables and stock market index which suggests that stock price movements in Nepal are not explained by the macroeconomic variables. It supports random walk hypothesis in Nepalese stock market.Pravaha Vol. 24, No. 1, 2018, Page: 64-82

scholarly journals The Impact of Palm Oil Price on the Malaysian Stock Market Performance

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabariah Nordin ◽  
Rusmawati Ismail .
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The performance of a stock market has always become the center of attention for market analysts and investors. Due to its significant role in the economy of a country, the performance of the stock market is always associated with the economic condition of a country. Because of that, this study intends to examine the impact of commodity prices in influencing the behavior of the stock market index specifically by focusing on the palm oil prices. Since Malaysia is one of the major producers of palm oil, the behavior of the palm oil price is expected to have an influence on the Malaysian stock market index. In pursuing the objective, we have adopted the bounds test approach to analyze the existence of cointegration relationship among the underlying variables of the Malaysian stock market index, interest rate, exchange rate and the price of palm oil. Using monthly data for the period of 1997M12 to 2012M9, results of an ARDL test indicates that all the variables employed are significant in influencing the Malaysian stock market index in the long run as well as in the short run.

scholarly journals The long-Run and Short-Run Analysis between Stock Market Index and Macroeconomic Variables in Jordan: Bounds Tests Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
Raed Walid Al-Smadi ◽  
Muthana Mohammad Omoush
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run relationship between stock market index and the macroeconomic variables in Jordan. Annual time series data for the 1978–2017 periods and the ARDL bounding test are used. The results identify long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and the macroeconomic variables in Jordan. Jordanian policy makers have to pay more attention to the current regulation in the Amman Stock Exchange(ASE) and manage it well, thus ultimately helping financial development.

scholarly journals Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Market Returns For Four Emerging Economies: Brazil, Russia, India, And China

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert D. Gay, Jr.
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Market Index ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
India And China

The relationship between share prices and macroeconomic variables is well documented for the United States and other major economies. However, what is the relationship between share prices and economic activity in emerging economies? The goal of this study is to investigate the time-series relationship between stock market index prices and the macroeconomic variables of exchange rate and oil price for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model. Although no significant relationship was found between respective exchange rate and oil price on the stock market index prices of either BRIC country, this may be due to the influence other domestic and international macroeconomic factors on stock market returns, warranting further research. Also, there was no significant relationship found between present and past stock market returns, suggesting the markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China exhibit the weak-form of market efficiency.

scholarly journals COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF POST-RECESSION STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE IN THE BALTIC STATES

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-46
Author(s):  
Irina Pilvere ◽  
Aija Pilvere-Javorska ◽  
Baiba Rivza
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Market Capitalization ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Baltic

Stock market is alternative place to bank lending for company’s finance and contributor to economic development. Baltic States is market, which traditionally is perceived as one, however it is comprised of 3 separate stock markets. Research aim was to conduct comparative analysis of stock market development performance post-recession in the Baltic States.. In order to perform analysis, number of listed companies, their market capitalization and structure in Baltic States were analyzed and also compared to main economic indicators structure in 2008-2018 6 months. The main research methods are: analysis, synthesis, the logical construction method, the induction and deduction methods, as well as time series analysis. Authors have determined main stock market performance indicators and compared stock market indicators structure with Baltic region’s economic structure. Research results indicates that number of listed companies had increased only in Estonia, also market capitalization there had experienced their value to more than double in analyzed period. In Lithuania number of companies had declined, while market capitalization the growth was slower when compared to in Estonia, while more linear. In turn, stock market capitalization and number of listed companies in Latvia were declining in 2008-2018 6 months. Overall number of listed companies in Baltic States was decreasing, while their market capitalization is increasing, but still is only 60% of value it was in pre-recession year 2007. In Estonia and in Lithuania average listed companies are larger in size, when compared to in Latvia. Size of average listed companies on stock market in Estonia and in Lithuania more than doubled in size, while in Latvia it showed insignificant growth. Stock market indicators’ structure had insignificant deviations from the main economic indicator structure in 2008, while in 6 months 2018 dynamics in Latvia stock market parameters had dropped in the structure among all 3 Baltic States. Overall, in Latvia stock market is lagging behind, when compared to one in Estonia and in Lithuania in analyzed period, thus all 3 Baltic States has had asymmetrical recovery and development speed post-recession.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document