scholarly journals Is it possible to predict food retail prices? Evidence from Lithuanian market

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Artiom Volkov ◽  
Mangirdas Morkūnas ◽  
Viktorija Skvarciany
Keyword(s):  
Econometric Model ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Retail ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Main Determinant ◽  
Budget Planning ◽  
Illicit Market ◽  
Retail Prices ◽  
Retail Food ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – the purpose of the article is to develop a model that could be used for estimating the level of the effect of the highlighted determinants on food retail prices. Research methodology – the study is based on the obtained monthly data of food retail prices that covers the period from 2016 I m. to 2018 XII m. (36 observations). Multiple regression modelling is used in order to create a model of food retail prices. Findings – the results provide evidence that the most influential determinants are the price of the alternative products and purchasing power. It also contributes to scholarly thinking, stating, that it is possible to predict the future retail price of a particular product. Research limitations – the limitation of the current study is that the proposed econometric model is sufficient for the Lithuanian market and ought to be modified if used in other countries. Practical implications – the development model allows to predict/forecast the food retail prices which are crucial for households budget planning. Originality/Value – the current study examines the main determinant of retail food prices. It laid a background for future researches, based on examining possibilities to forecast food prices. The research results contribute to classic economic views about market imperfections influence onto supply-demand equilibrium and unproductiveness of consumer illicit market.

scholarly journals Market Structure and the Dynamics of Retail Food Prices

1989 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 160-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert D. Weaver ◽  
Peter Chattin ◽  
Aniruddha Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Market Structure ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Cost Of Energy ◽  
Retail Prices ◽  
Producer Prices ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Retail Grocery ◽  
Retail Food

The effect of retail grocery market structure on the speed of adjustment of retail food prices to changes in producer prices, real wages, and the cost of energy was examined for SMSAs. Evidence failed to support the implication of the Mason-Bain paradigm that increased concentration reduces market efficiency as reflected in speed of retail price adjustment. Evidence of strong intertemporal relationships between change in producer prices and retail prices found for the categories meat, poultry, fish, eggs and cereal and baker products provide support to the hypothesis of cost-push inflation.

scholarly journals Seasonality of diet costs reveals food system performance in East Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (49) ◽  
pp. eabc2162
Author(s):  
Yan Bai ◽  
Elena N. Naumova ◽  
William A. Masters
Keyword(s):  
Food Systems ◽  
Food System ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Environments ◽  
Nutrient Requirements ◽  
Nutritional Security ◽  
Retail Prices ◽  
Nutritional Needs ◽  
Significant Intensity ◽  
Climate And Society

Seasonal fluctuations in food prices reflect interactions between climate and society, measuring the degree to which predictable patterns of crop growth and harvest are offset by storage and trade. Previous research on seasonality in food systems has focused on specific commodities. This study accounts for substitution between items to meet nutritional needs, computing seasonal variation in local food environments using monthly retail prices for 191 items across Ethiopia, Malawi, and Tanzania from 2002 through 2016. We computed over 25,000 least-cost diets meeting nutrient requirements at each market every month and then measured the magnitude and timing of seasonality in diet costs. We found significant intensity in Malawi, Tanzania, and Ethiopia (10.0, 6.3, and 4.0%, respectively), driven primarily by synchronized price rises for nutrient-dense foods. Results provide a metric to map nutritional security, pointing to opportunities for more targeted investments to improve the year-round delivery of nutrients.

scholarly journals Diet Quality and Food Prices Modify Associations between Genetic Susceptibility to Obesity and Adiposity Outcomes

Nutrients ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3349
Author(s):  
Hannah Yang Han ◽  
Catherine Paquet ◽  
Laurette Dubé ◽  
Daiva E Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Waist Circumference ◽  
Diet Quality ◽  
Food Environment ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Healthy Eating Index ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Polygenic Risk Score ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Retail Food Environment ◽  
Retail Food

The role of the retail food environment in obesity risk is unclear, which may be due in part to the lack of consideration of individual differences in the responsivity to food cues. This cross-sectional investigation geo-temporally linked the CARTaGENE biobank (including genetic, dietary, lifestyle, and anthropometric data) with in-store retail food environment data to examine interactions between a polygenic risk score (PRS) for obesity and (1) diet quality (n = 6807) and (2) in-store retail food measures (n = 3718). The outcomes included adiposity-related measures and diet quality assessed using the 2010 Canadian-adapted Healthy Eating Index. A vegetable:soft drink ratio was constructed for each retail measure to assess the relative healthfulness of exposures. Generalized linear models adjusted for individual and neighborhood socio-demographic factors were used to evaluate main and interactive effects. Diet quality significantly modified the association between polygenic risk of obesity and body mass index, waist circumference, and body fat percent. A significant interaction was also observed between PRS and regular price of vegetables in relation to soft drinks on waist circumference. These results replicate previous reports of diet moderating polygenic risk of obesity and suggest that prices of low vs. high-energy density foods are an intervention target to address population obesity rates.

scholarly journals Retail price discrimination and food waste

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1861-1896
Author(s):  
Timothy J Richards ◽  
Stephen F Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Food Waste ◽  
Price Discrimination ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Quality Standard ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
The Us ◽  
Retail Prices ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Retail Food ◽  
Minimum Quality

Abstract We examine a food retailer’s incentive to use a minimum quality standard as part of a quality-based price-discrimination strategy and show how price discrimination can result in a substantial level of retail food waste. Using data from a major US food retailer, we estimate a structural model of retail price discrimination and conduct a series of counter-factual experiments to demonstrate that observed retail prices are consistent with quality-based price discrimination in the retail market. Our findings indicate that quality standards on fresh produce can explain a substantial proportion ($7.5\%$) of food waste by retailers in the US.

“The lost decade”: an MPT perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (11) ◽  
pp. 1202-1220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Loviscek
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Set ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Lost Decade ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the efficacy of an application of modern portfolio theory (MPT) from 2000 through 2009, a period during which the annual rate of return on the S & P 500 is negative. The financial media have called this period “the lost decade” for investors. Design/methodology/approach – Using monthly data, the author uses a series of annual out-of-sample tests to compare the risk-reward performances of MPT portfolios against those of the S & P 500. Findings – The author finds that the MPT portfolios outperformed the S & P 500. During the “lost decade”. They generated a cumulative return of over 77 percent compared to a cumulative return of −9.1 percent on the S & P 500. Moreover, the MPT portfolio β’s are low, ranging from 0.45 to 1.01, suggesting above-average risk-reward performances. Research limitations/implications – The MPT portfolios are relatively small, and might not be well diversified. That said, they comprise a core set of securities that could help investors achieve a risk-reward performance that exceeds that of the S & P 500. Practical implications – The results suggest that investors should not overlook the potential of MPT, despite its theoretical and practical limitations, to provide above-average returns at below-average risks. Originality/value – This is the first study to show the efficacy of MPT during a period in which it was criticized at having failed investors when they needed it most.

Retail and Consumer Prices, 1955-1963

1964 ◽  
Vol 30 ◽  
pp. 44-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. A. H. Godley ◽  
D. A. Rowe
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
National Income ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
The Other ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Unit Costs ◽  
Correct Analysis ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Retail Prices

This paper gives an account of a method of forecasting the Ministry of Labour's retail prices index, and of deriving from it a forecast of the consumer price index. (This is the index used in the National Income statistics to deflate the value of consumers' expenditure to volume terms.) Good forecasting obviously has to be based on a correct analysis of the factors which determine price changes; the article throws light on the way in which cost changes are taken into account when prices are changed. It seems that retail prices (apart from seasonal food prices) do not respond directly to short-term fluctuations in demand and output. Businessmen do not raise prices because demand suddenly rises; nor on the other hand do they lower them when output moves up sharply and unit costs fall. The analysis, therefore, provides further support for the ‘normal cost’ theory of pricing—that businessmen set prices by calculating their costs when working at some normal capacity, and add a conventional margin.

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