House Prices and the Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel: The Case of the Irish Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-221
Author(s):  
David Cronin ◽  
Kieran McQuinn
Keyword(s):  
Employment Growth ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Celtic Tiger ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
The Past ◽  
Domestic Labour ◽  
Severe Recession

The performance of the Irish economy stands out across western economies over the past two decades as the later years of its “Celtic Tiger” phase gave way to a sharp and extremely large economic downturn between 2008 and 2012. This severe recession has been followed by a Lazarus-style economic recovery in recent years. This paper examines the role played by the credit-driven housing net worth channel in the path that Irish economic performance has taken between 2002 and 2019 by specific reference to developments in the domestic labour market. We find a significant positive relationship between housing net worth and employment growth in Ireland, manifesting itself through the non-traded sector of the economy between 2007 and 2012. This followed the emergence and then bursting of a substantial credit-fuelled housing market bubble in the Irish residential property market. Our analysis indicates no evident link between economic activity and a credit-driven housing net worth channel in recent years. This may reflect market and regulatory responses to the banking crisis-led recession of the late 2000s and early 2010s.

scholarly journals The Politics of Housing

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben W. Ansell
Keyword(s):  
Welfare State ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Social Cleavages ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Choice ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Market Shocks ◽  
The Welfare State

Owning a house is the most important economic choice most families will ever make. Yet, our understanding of the political causes and consequences of homeownership is rather thin. This review argues that political scientists need to take housing much more seriously, not least because of the unprecedented surges and collapses of house prices over the past two decades. The housing market is both a proxy for and a cause of growing social cleavages that shape how citizens view political issues from the size of the welfare state to the attractiveness of populist campaigns. The article begins by re-examining classic work on property from the nineteenth century as a still-relevant guide to the winners and losers from property market shocks and regulations. It then turns to the postwar era and work that suggests that the welfare state and property ownership are in some sense substitutes. It concludes by examining the role housing plays in shaping contemporary political preferences, both as a direct measure of individuals' wealth and welfare and as a proxy for the relative fortunes of different places.

Superstar Cities

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 167-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Gyourko ◽  
Christopher Mayer ◽  
Todd Sinai
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
House Price ◽  
Lower Income ◽  
Local Factors ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Price Appreciation

We document large long-run differences in average house price appreciation across metropolitan areas over the past 50 years, and show they can be explained by an inelastic supply of land in some unique locations combined with an increasing number of highincome households nationally. The resulting high house prices and price-to-rent ratios in those “superstar” areas crowd out lower income households. The same forces generate a similar pattern among municipalities within a metropolitan area. These facts suggest that disparate local house price and income trends can be driven by aggregate demand, not just changes in local factors such as productivity or amenities. (JEL R11, R23, R31, R52)

The Great Depression and the Great Recession in Interwar Greece and Today: A comparison

2015 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophia Lazaretou
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Past ◽  
Greek Crisis ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Terra Incognita ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Nominal Anchor

AbstractThe past Greek crisis experience is more or less terra incognita. In all historical empirical studies Greece is systematically neglected or included only sporadically in their cross-country samples. In the national literature too there is little on this topic. In this paper we use the 1930s crisis as a useful testing ground to compare the two crises episodes, ‘then’ and ‘now’; to detect differences and similarities and discuss the policy facts with the ultimate aim to draw some ‘policy lessons’ from history. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to study the Greek crisis experience across the two historical episodes. Comparisons with the interwar period show that the recent economic downturn was faster, larger and more severe than during the early 1930s. More importantly, analysing the determinants of the two crises, we conclude that Greece’s problems arose from its inability to credibly adhere to a nominal anchor.

Type-specific reference conditions of fluvial landscapes: A search in the past by 3D-reconstruction

CATENA ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Severin Hohensinner ◽  
Mathew Herrnegger ◽  
Alfred P. Blaschke ◽  
Christine Habereder ◽  
Gertrud Haidvogl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
3D Reconstruction ◽  
Reference Conditions ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
The Past

scholarly journals Towards National Archaeological Mapping. Assessing Source Data and Methodology—A Case Study from Scotland

Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Łukasz Banaszek ◽  
Dave Cowley ◽  
Mike Middleton
Keyword(s):  
Laser Scanning ◽  
General Purpose ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Large Area ◽  
The Past ◽  
Airborne Laser ◽  
Source Data ◽  
Collection Strategies

While the National Record of the Historic Environment (NRHE) in Scotland contains valuable information on more than 170,000 archaeological monuments, it is clear that this dataset is conditioned by the disposition of past survey and changing parameters of data collection strategies over many decades. This highlights the importance of creating systematic datasets, in which the standards to which they were created are explicit, and against which the reliability of our knowledge of the material remains of the past can be assessed. This paper describes issues of data structure and reliability, then discussing the methodologies under development for expediting the progress of national-scale mapping with specific reference to the Isle of Arran. Preliminary outcomes of a recent archaeological mapping project of the island, which has been used to develop protocols for rapid large area mapping, are outlined. The primary sources for the survey were airborne laser scanning derivatives and orthophotographs, supplemented by field observation, and the project has more than doubled the number of known monuments of Arran. The survey procedures are described, followed by a discussion of the utility of ‘general purpose’ remote sensed datasets, focusing on the assessment of strengths and weaknesses for rapid mapping of large areas.

Adelaide's Heart Transplant 1970–88: 1. Creation, Transfer, and Capture of ‘Value’ within the Built Environment

1992 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
B A Badcock
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Built Environment ◽  
Heart Transplant ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Development Programme ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Housing Investment ◽  
The Past ◽  
Residential Capital ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy

The circulation of capital within the built environment, as first formalised by Harvey in 1978, is treated empirically via an analysis of residential capital formation and the transfer of value within the Adelaide Metropolitan Area, in the period 1970–88. Operational concepts of value ‘creation’, ‘transfer’, and ‘capture’ are defined before estimates of housing investment and its redistribution through the medium of the urban property market are derived. These are imputed for eight subregions of Adelaide. It is suggested that the chief beneficiaries from the ‘capture’ of value during the past two decades have been the Inner Adelaide suburbs and homeowners; hence the implication of Adelaide's ‘heart transplant’. Harvey's ‘framework for analysis’ and more particularly his account of the timing and patterning of (dis)investment within the built environment are then evaluated in light of Adelaide's experience between 1970 and 1988. It is decided that urban investment trends and patterns cannot be properly understood without giving much greater deference to fiscal and monetary policy together with the state's urban development programme than Harvey is prepared to in his analysis.

scholarly journals Are There Any Housing Bubbles in Turkey?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özge Korkmaz ◽  
Ebru Çağlayan Akay ◽  
Hoşeng Bülbül
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
The Past ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Housing Bubbles ◽  
Turkish Lira

It is very important that the housing market, which meets the most basic need of people is needed for shelter from the past to the present, has a stable structure. The instability structure of the housing market is generally associated with the presence of housing bubbles. The deviation of housing prices from their basic value and not being able to be explained by economic fundamentals leads to the formation of housing bubbles. Housing bubbles can lead to permanent losses, as it may take a long time to return to normal prices. For Turkey as a developing country, it is important to identify an unstable structure in house prices discuss the basic economic factors related to this. After the global increases in housing prices, inflation, and depreciation in the Turkish lira, Turkey has become the country with the highest housing price increases globally in 2020. In the study, the presence of bubbles in the housing market for Ankara, Izmir, Istanbul, and Turkey in general, was investigated by SADF and GSADF unit root tests for the period 2010:01-2021:02. In this context, the study examines the presence of bubbles in housing prices for Ankara, Izmir, Istanbul, and Turkey in general, which are the three cities with the highest price increases. As a result of the study, the presence of bubbles in the housing market has been determined for Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, and Turkey in general.

The Role of Policy in the Great Recession and the Weak Recovery

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (5) ◽  
pp. 61-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
John B. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Regulatory Policy ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Past ◽  
Severe Recession

This paper reports on recent research showing that the severe recession of 2007-2009 and the weak recovery have been due to poor economic policies and the failure to implement good policies during the past decade. Monetary policy, fiscal policy, and regulatory policy became more discretionary, more interventionist, and less predictable in comparison with the previous two decades of better economic performance. At best these policies led to growth spurts, but were followed by retrenchments, averaging to poor performance. The paper also considers alternative views-that the equilibrium interest rate declined during the decade and that the seriousness of financial crisis caused the slow recovery.

Rent or buy, what are the odds? Analysing the price-to-rent ratio for housing types within the Northern Ireland housing market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lo ◽  
Michael James McCord ◽  
John McCord ◽  
Peadar Thomas Davis ◽  
Martin Haran
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Main Property ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rental Market ◽  
Price Series ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The price-to-rent ratio is often regarded as an important indicator for measuring housing market imbalance and inefficiency. A central question is the extent to which house prices and rents form part of the same market and thus whether they respond similarly to parallel stimulus. If they are close proxies dynamically, then this provides valuable market intelligence, particularly where causal relationships are evident. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the relationship between market and rental pricing to uncover the price switching dynamics of residential real estate property types and whether the deviation between market rents and prices are integrated over both the long- and short-term. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses cointegration, Wald exogeneity tests and Granger causality models to determine the existence, if any, of cointegration and lead-lag relationships between prices and rents within the Belfast property market, as well as the price-to-rent ratios amongst its five main property sub-markets over the time period M4, 2014 to M12 2018. Findings The findings provide some novel insights in relation to the pricing dynamics within Belfast. Housing and rental prices are cointegrated suggesting that they tend to move in tandem in the long run. It is further evident that in the short-run, the price series Granger-causes that of rents inferring that sales price information unidirectionally diffuse to the rental market. Further, the findings on price-to-rent ratios reveal that the detached sector appears to Granger-cause those of other property types except apartments in both the short- and long-term, suggesting possible spill-over of pricing signals from the top-end to the lower strata of the market. Originality/value The importance of understanding the relationship between house prices and rental market performance has gathered momentum. Although the house price-rent ratio is widely used as an indicator of over and undervaluation in the housing market, surprisingly little is known about the theoretical relationship between the price-rent ratio across property types and their respective inter-relationships.

Indigeneity of Past Landscape Transformations of the Tropics

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Balée
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Historical Ecology ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Species Turnover ◽  
Continuous Process ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Swidden Cultivation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Landscape Transformation ◽  
Landscape Transformations

Indigeneity is the living heritage of traditional peoples. It includes not only their languages and cultures but their transformational etchings on landscapes—not just alterations in the form of inanimate structural changes of the substrate, as in the construction of earthworks and edifices, but sometimes changing the composition of the living flora and fauna. Archaeology is crucial to the identification of indigeneity in the past and in the analysis of landscapes and seascapes associated with it. Landscape transformations, from the perspective of historical ecology, refer to the turnover in species of given locales because of human-mediated disturbance. Primary landscape transformation denotes complete species turnover, whereas secondary landscape transformation denotes partial species turnover. In both cases, substrate alterations occur, but in primary landscape transformation these are qualitatively more profound. In order to understand landscape transformations, we might begin with consideration of geographer Carl Sauer’s comment (1963 [1925]: 333) that ‘We cannot form an idea of landscape except in terms of its time relations as well as of its space relations. It is in continuous process of development or of dissolution and replacement.’ Indigeneity is one of the factors involved in dissolution and replacement, which I refer to as ‘transformation’. Landscapes created in the past through mechanisms rooted in indigeneity are often called the ‘built environment’ by archaeologists. In many tropical forests, including those of Greater Amazonia, the Atlantic Coastal Forest, West Africa, Central Africa, Malesia, and Micronesia, both primary and secondary landscape transformations have noticeably affected the distribution of plant and animal species. In some cases, with specific reference to primary landscape transformation, entire forests came into existence, such as in the Llanos de Mojos, Bolivia and in Guinea, West Africa (see Fairhead, Chapter 16 this volume for more detailed discussion of anthropogenic forests in West Africa). Secondary landscape transformation occurred in the context of ancient settlements, the alteration of ridge tops, swidden cultivation, and resource management, such as in Pre-Amazonian forests of Eastern Brazil, Central African forests, and various forests of Malesia.

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