Inclusion of Asset Prices: An Argument for Monetary Policy and the Phillips Curve

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-252
Author(s):  
Alexander Mislin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Optimization Procedure ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

Abstract This article develops an augmented price index that includes house prices, so that the relationship between inflation and unemployment levels in the traditional Phillips curve can be better represented. This general price index may be considered complementary to the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and establishes the model-theoretical basis for a new-Keynesian model that derives the conditions for a monetary policy rule in a dynamic stochastic optimization procedure. Based on a simple stochastic differential equation for augmented inflation, we show that the reaction of the central bank depends on the marginal effects on augmented inflation and the output gap of an infinitesimal change in asset prices. This analysis could be interpreted as a way of using asset prices for a general price index, being an adequate method to restore monetary credibility. JEL classifications: E52, E58, G10 Keywords: monetary policy, asset prices, Phillips curve

scholarly journals Thai Monetary Policy Under the Inflation Targeting Regime

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nipit Wongpunya
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
State Level ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Trend Inflation ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

Abstract This paper explores the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting in Thailand. Furthermore, this study uses a nonlinear new Keynesian model under the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework with price indexation to analyze the monetary policy under inflation targeting in Thailand. The model is estimated using a Bayesian statistic for the Thai economy. It shows that inflation is more stabilized and inflation persistence has fallen after adopting inflation targeting. The paper also indicates that the Bank of Thailand is more responsive to the deviation of inflation from its target using inflation targeting. The key monetary mechanism exists through changes in the real interest rate which affect aggregate demand. It is worth noting that the larger the inflation targeting rate is, the lower the steady state output from its steady state level given no trend inflation.

THE SIGNAL EXTRACTION PROBLEM REVISITED: A NOTE ON ITS IMPACT ON A MODEL OF MONETARY POLICY

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 405-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin D. Keen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock ◽  
Future Policy ◽  
Sticky Wages

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices and sticky wages, in which agents have imperfect information on the stance and direction of monetary policy. Agents respond by using Kalman filtering to unravel persistent and temporary monetary policy changes in order to form optimal forecasts of future policy actions. Our results show that a New Keynesian model with imperfect information and real rigidities can account for several key effects of an expansionary monetary policy shock: the hump-shaped increase in output, the delayed and gradual rise in inflation, and the fall in the nominal interest rate.

scholarly journals Modeling the Effects of Coordinating Macro-Prudential Rule and Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 686-694
Author(s):  
Xiaowen Hu ◽  
◽  
Chengchen Hu ◽  
Zhixiang Tang ◽  
Zhen Li
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Prudential Policy ◽  
Better Than

We develop a new Keynesian model featuring a dual-pillar monetary policy. We employ this framework to analyze the effects of coordinating macro-prudential rule and monetary policy in China using different tools. The simulation results show that: (1) adopting macro-prudential rule and monetary policy simultaneously can achieve a more stable economic environment than using monetary policy alone; (2) a price-based monetary policy is more effective in stabilizing economic fluctuations than a quantity-based monetary policy when considering the macro-prudential policy; (3) the combination of quantity-based monetary policy and macro-prudential rule can stabilize housing prices and credit growth better than the price-based tools. The study shows that when house prices rise rapidly owing to external shocks, adopting the quantity-based policy instruments and macro-prudential policy is a wise choice. When the financial condition is stable, the combination of price-based instruments and macro-prudential rule is better.

Taylor rule and monetary policy transmission mechanism in a new keynesian economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (27) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Christopher Cernichiaro Reyna
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

This paper estimates two SVAR models to assess Mexican Monetary policy rate for the period 2000-2015, which are recursively identifid according to Gali and Monacelli (2005) model. This paper shows that monetary policy rate responds to GDP, infltion and exchange rate as Taylor’s Rule predicts. When controlling for General Consumer’s Price Index infltion, monetary policy barely affcts aggregate demand even if exchange rate appreciates, nevertheless GDP diminish after contractive monetary policy takes place. Infltion rate lightly increases after interest rate rises, which does not coincide with New Keynesian predictions. A second model is estimated controlling for underlying infltion. Its results exhibit more interest rate sensitive consumption and net exports, while real exchange rate and GDP change as New Keynesian model predicts. Infltion decreases after monetary policy rise but its flctuations are close to zero. According to Gali (2008) such small changes indicate nominal rigidities existence.

scholarly journals On the Limits of Macroprudential Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Kolasa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Collateral Constraints ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Additional Stabilization ◽  
The Interest Rate

AbstractThis paper studies how macroprudential policy tools applied to the housing market can complement the interest rate-based monetary policy in achieving one additional stabilization objective, defined as keeping either economic activity or credit at some exogenous (and possibly time-varying) levels. We show analytically in a canonical New Keynesian model with housing and collateral constraints that using the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, tax on credit or tax on property as additional policy instruments does not resolve the inflation-output volatility tradeoff. Perfect targeting of inflation and credit with monetary and macroprudential policy is possible only if the role of housing debt in the economy is sufficiently small. The identified limits to the considered policies are related to their predominantly intertemporal impact on decisions made by financially constrained agents, making them poor complements to monetary policy, which also operates at an intertemporal margin. These limits can be overcome if macroprudential policy is instead designed such that it sufficiently redistributes income between savers and borrowers.

scholarly journals Information Use and the Condorcet Jury Theorem

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1098
Author(s):  
Keiichi Morimoto
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Information Use ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Strategic Complementarity ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Jury Theorem

Using a simple model of a coordination game, this paper explores how the information use of individuals affects an optimal committee size. Although enlarging the committee promotes information aggregation, it also stimulates the members’ coordination motive and distorts their voting behavior through higher-order beliefs. On the determination of a finite optimal committee size, the direction and degree of strategic interactions matter. When the strategic complementarity among members is strong, a finite optimal committee size exists. In contrast, it does not exist under strategic substitution. This mechanism is applied to the design of monetary policy committees in a New Keynesian model in which a committee conducts monetary policy under imperfect information.

TREND INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN EASTERN EUROPE

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1649-1663
Author(s):  
Monika Junicke
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Transition Economies ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Trend Inflation ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Eastern European Countries

I use a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a nonzero steady-state inflation to study monetary policy in transition economies. In particular, my analysis focuses on whether inflation targeting is based on a consumer price index (CPI) or its producer counterpart, producer price index (PPI). This issue is specifically relevant for transition economies as they might be subject to Balassa–Samuelson effects arising from trading in international markets. Under these circumstances, domestic inflation is possibly higher than imported inflation, hence targeting PPI inflation may prove more effective in influencing domestic macroeconomic variables than targeting CPI inflation. Using a Bayesian methodology, I find that the central banks of three Eastern European countries (namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) are likely to target PPI inflation rather than CPI inflation. This result is in line with the theoretical predictions in the literature, and is robust across several Taylor-type rules.

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