scholarly journals How Does External Debt Servicing Ability Affect The Stability of Electoral Authoritarian Regimes?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-56
Author(s):  
Viola Fur
Keyword(s):  
External Debt ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
The Stability

No abstract available.

Looking forward and looking backward: Economic evaluations and regime support in China

Politics ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 026339572198954
Author(s):  
Yida Zhai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Psychological Mechanism ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Regime Support

It is widely acknowledged that the economic situation is of vital importance for the stability of an authoritarian regime, but it is rarely known how the public’s economic evaluation contributes to such outcomes. This study examines the effects of citizens’ retrospective and prospective evaluations of their household economic situation and the national economy on the level of regime support in China. The findings show that the national economy outweighs household economic conditions in its effects on the public’s support of the regime. However, the gap between evaluations of the national economy and individual economic situations debilitates regime support. The population in different age cohorts has distinct patterns of relationships between retrospective and prospective economic evaluations and regime support. This study elucidates the political-psychological mechanism of the public’s economic evaluation affecting regime support, and the ruling strategy in authoritarian regimes of manipulating this evaluation.

Political Orientation, Information and Perceptions of Election Fraud: Evidence from Russia

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 589-608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme Robertson
Keyword(s):  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Election Monitoring ◽  
Political Orientations ◽  
Citizen Perceptions ◽  
Election Fraud ◽  
The Stability

Citizen perceptions of the extent of fraud in a given authoritarian election can differ widely. This article builds on the literature on information acquisition and processing in democracies to argue that much of this variation is due to the way in which citizens’ underlying political orientations affect both the kind of information they gather and how they process that information. These differences in information acquisition and processing have important implications for how election monitoring reports, access to the internet and other sources of information are likely to affect the stability of contemporary authoritarian regimes. The theory is tested using observational data and a survey experiment from the Russian presidential election of 2012.

Managing Society: Protest, Civil Society, and Regime in Putin's Russia

Slavic Review ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
pp. 528-547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme B. Robertson
Keyword(s):  
Social Movements ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
The State ◽  
Hybrid Regimes ◽  
Soviet Space ◽  
The Stability ◽  
New System ◽  
Post Soviet Space

Postcommunist Russia has become a paradigmatic case of contemporary authoritarianism in which elections coexist with autocratic rule. In this paper, Graeme B. Robertson argues that it is vital for the stability of such hybrid regimes for incumbents to maintain an image of political invincibility. This means intensively managing challenges both during elections and in the streets. To do this, Vladimir Putin's regime has built on the Soviet repertoire of channeling and inhibiting protest, creating a new system for licensing civil society and crafting ersatz social movements that rally support for the state. This contemporary style of repression has become a model for authoritarian regimes in the post-Soviet space and elsewhere.

scholarly journals External Debt Sustainability in the Eurasian Economic Union Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junus Ganiev ◽  
Damira Baigonushova
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Current State ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

After the global financial crisis, there have been serious increases in state debt of most countries. In addition, the debts for economic development are constantly increasing in the Eurasian Economic Union countries. As a result, the sustainability problem of government debt arises. In some countries, such as Kyrgyzstan, a significant portion of government debt is taken from a single country. This situation increases the risk even more. The aim of the study is to analyze the sustainability of state debts comparatively in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. To this end, the current state of government and total external debt were analyzed in light of various sustainability rates. The ratio of government debt and debt service to variables such as Gross Domestic Product and export was determined and compared. ADF and PP unit root tests and quarterly data for the period 2008-2019 was used to determine the stability of external debt. According to the empirical results, it is showed that the external debt is unsustainable in EAEU countries. Therefore, they need to implement rational policies on external debt management, in both the public and private sectors.

African authoritarianism likely to rise in 2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Process ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Factions ◽  
International Donors ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Stability

Subject Rising African authorianism Significance Several protest movements have emerged over the past year calling into question the stability of governments in many of sub-Saharan Africa’s electoral-authoritarian regimes -- those states that hold multiparty elections, but in largely undemocratic conditions. Following decades of exclusionary or discriminatory politics, marginalised minorities and political factions are campaigning for a greater share of economic opportunities and political influence in countries as diverse as Cameroon, Kenya, Nigeria and Mozambique. Authoritarian governments have tended to respond with repression rather than reform, further undermining their claim to legitimacy. Impacts Opposition parties will find it extremely difficult to gain ground electorally, enabling incumbents to retain control of the policy process. Rising instability and repression will undermine the willingness of international donors to provide aid, compounding economic difficulties. Prolonged political instability in states such as Ethiopia will undermine the attraction of the so-called "Singapore model" in Africa.

scholarly journals Authoritarian Institutions and Regime Survival: Transitions to Democracy and Subsequent Autocracy

2011 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Wright ◽  
Abel Escribà-Folch
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Transitions To Democracy ◽  
Probability Of Transition ◽  
Regime Survival ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
The Stability ◽  
New Democracy ◽  
Analysis Models

This article examines how authoritarian parties and legislatures affect regime survival. While authoritarian legislatures increase the stability of dictators, political parties – even when devised to quell internal threats – can destabilize dictators. The main argument is that authoritarian parties influence the distribution of power in a subsequent new democracy by helping to protect the interests of authoritarian elites. These institutions thus increase the likelihood of democratization. Using a dataset of authoritarian regimes in 108 countries from 1946 to 2002 and accounting for simultaneity, the analysis models transitions to democracy and to a subsequent authoritarian regime. Results indicate that authoritarian legislatures are associated with a lower probability of transition to a subsequent dictatorship. Authoritarian parties, however, are associated with a higher likelihood of democratization.

THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE, FISCAL DEFICIT AND TERMS OF TRADE ON EXTERNAL DEBT OF PAKISTAN: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 01 (03) ◽  
pp. 10-24
Author(s):  
Asma Awan ◽  
Nabeela Asghar ◽  
Hafeez ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

The massive debt burden of Pakistan calls for a detailed analysis of trends in the foreign debt levels, its causative factors and implications for economic growth. The present study is an attempt to analyze the relationship between external debt and exchange rate, fiscal deficit and deterioration of terms of trade for the period 1974-2008. Using Johansen approach, the study found significant long-run relationship between external debt and exchange rate and deterioration of terms of trade. The results of the study revealed that fiscal deficit had no significant impact on external debt. In the short-run all the variables failed to establish relationship with external debt. However, the existence of long-run causality was observed and three channels of uni-directional causalities were found actively running from (i) fiscal deficit to external debt, (ii) terms of trade to exchange rate, and (iii) fiscal deficit to terms of trade. Diagnostic test confirmed the validity of the model and CUSUM and CUSUMSQ test revealed the stability of the model.

scholarly journals Party System Institutionalization in Democracies

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Mainwaring ◽  
Fernando Bizzarro ◽  
Aaron Watanabe ◽  
María Victoria De Negri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Party System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Democratic Regimes ◽  
System Collapse ◽  
Party System Institutionalization ◽  
Party Institutionalization ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Democratic Elections

Party systems vary in many dimensions. Variation in the stability and predictability of the party system in democratic elections is captured by the concept of Party System Institutionalization (PSI). Where the party system is stable and predictable, it is institutionalized. Where it is in flux and major new contenders regularly appear, the party system lacks institutionalization. Fundamental differences among party systems revolve around the level of institutionalization. Institutionalized systems make governing easier, lower the probability of populists winning office, promote greater economic growth, and are associated with better public policy. Many scholars who work on Latin America, the post-Soviet region, Africa, and Asia have employed the concept “party system institutionalize” to analyze these regions. Because party systems do not develop in a linear way, in some cases this means the study of deinstitutionalization. When deinstitutionalization happens abruptly, it is called party system collapse or party collapse. The article focuses on PSI, erosion, and collapse in democratic regimes; a different literature analyzes party institutionalization under authoritarian regimes.

Methods of Election Manipulation and the Likelihood of Post-Election Protest

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 534-556
Author(s):  
Cole J. Harvey ◽  
Paula Mukherjee
Keyword(s):  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Legal Mobilization ◽  
Popular Protest ◽  
Democratic Regimes ◽  
The Stability

AbstractThe risk of popular protest is one of the few deterrents against election manipulation in authoritarian regimes and unconsolidated democracies, but why are some fraudulent elections met with popular protest while others are not? We use data from elections in 108 countries, from 1980 to 2004, to show that the regime’s choice of election manipulation tactics affects the likelihood of post-election protest. Leaders signal their strength and resources by manipulating elections, but some manipulation tactics send stronger signals than others. We find that opposition groups are more likely to protest when relatively cheap administrative fraud is employed, but not when more costly forms of manipulation – extra-legal mobilization and voter intimidation – are used. This study demonstrates the importance of accounting for variation in electoral manipulation tactics, and the information communicated by those tactics, in explaining post-election protest and the stability of electoral authoritarian and newly democratic regimes.

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