scholarly journals On the Predictive Power of the Yield Spread for Future Growth and Recession: The Turkish Case

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hüseyin Kaya
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Yield Spread ◽  
Production Growth ◽  
One Year ◽  
Turkish Case ◽  
Future Growth

This paper investigates the predictive power of the yield spread on future industrial production growth and recession in Turkey. Employing the linear regression model we find that the yield spread has predictive power when forecasting industrial production growth. The results also suggest that in the inflation targeting monetary policy period, predictive power of the yield spread has increased. Furthermore, we investigate whether the yield spread predicts recession by employing a probit model. Since no official recessions are available in Turkey, we determine the recessions using the BBQ methodology. The findings suggest that the yield spread predicts the recessions about one year ahead.

scholarly journals Lessons from the 20 years of the Brazilian inflation targeting regime

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eliane Araújo ◽  
Philip Arestis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Price Control ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targets ◽  
One Year

This paper analyzes the Brazilian experience with the inflation targeting regime (ITR) since its adoption in June 1999. The theoretical analysis starts by covering the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM) only policy, in which the ITR is the monetary policy recommendation. This discussion is then complemented first by the current debate in the international mainstream on the need for a flexible ITR that considers the effects of monetary policy on the economy and second by the heterodox discussion on the need to completely abandon the ITR. The discussion on the Brazilian experience and its comparison with international experiences show that Brazil is one of the few countries where the monetary policy objective is restricted to price control and where the horizon for returning inflation to the target is only one year. Within this institutional framework, the Brazilian economy under the ITR is marked by the maintenance of extremely high real and nominal interest rates and with difficulties in meeting the inflation targets. The price control obtained also did not generate the expected externalities in terms of economic growth and employment. After almost 20 years of adopting the ITR in Brazil, it has generated exaggerated contractionary pressures on the Brazilian economy, indicating the need for a thorough examination of monetary institutions in Brazil in order to resume economic growth with price stability and social equity.

On the Exchange Rate Policy

2010 ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
K. Yudaeva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The level of trust in the local currency in Russia is very low largely because of relatively high inflation. As a result, Bank of Russia during crisis times can not afford monetary policy loosening and has to fight devaluation expectations. To change the situation in the post-crisis period Russia needs to live through a continuous period of low inflation. Modified inflation targeting can help achieve such a result. However, it should be amended with institutional changes, particularly development of hedging instruments.

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

Is inflation targeting useful for economic growth?

2017 ◽  
pp. 62-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Kartaev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Test Performance ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Growth Regime ◽  
Potential Channels

The paper presents an overview of studies of the effects of inflation targeting on long-term economic growth. We analyze the potential channels of influence, as well as modern empirical studies that test performance of these channels. We compare the effects of different variants of inflation targeting (strict and mixed). Based on the analysis recommendations on the choice of optimal (in terms of stimulating long-term growth) regime of monetary policy in developed and developing economies are formulated.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

Regional effects of inflation targeting in Russia: Factors of heterogeneity and structural inflation rates

2019 ◽  
pp. 70-89
Author(s):  
Michael I. Zhemkov
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Regional Effects ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Communication Policies ◽  
Structural Levels

Inflation targeting in Russia implies maintaining stable low inflation at a level of 4% throughout the country. The presence of structural factors in some regions can determine deviations from the all-Russian inflation, which can lead to different effects of monetary policy in Russian regions. In this paper, we analyze regional heterogeneity of inflation and factors of inflation deviations from the national average, estimate structural levels of inflation in the regions of Russian Federation. These estimates confirm the presence of some regional factors of inflation deviations from the all-Russian indicator, such as the difference in productivity growth of the tradable and non-tradable sectors (Balassa—Samuelson effect), effective exchange rates, real incomes and product stocks. In addition, our results confirm the presence of regions with price growth rate above and below monetary policy target. The results of this research can be used for the development of monetary and communication policies.

Perspectives on inflation Targeting Regime in Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 107-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Andryushin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indirect Control ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Private And Public

The paper analyzes monetary policy of the Bank of Russia from 2008 to 2014. It presents the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators testifying to inability of the Bank of Russia to transit to inflation targeting regime. It is shown that the presence of short-term interest rates in the top borders of the percentage corridor does not allow to consider the key rate as a basic tool of monetary policy. The article justifies that stability of domestic prices is impossible with-out exchange rate stability. It is proved that to decrease excessive volatility on national consumer and financial markets it is reasonable to apply a policy of managing financial account, actively using for this purpose direct and indirect control tools for the cross-border flows of the private and public capital.

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