scholarly journals Lessons from the 20 years of the Brazilian inflation targeting regime

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eliane Araújo ◽  
Philip Arestis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Price Control ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targets ◽  
One Year

This paper analyzes the Brazilian experience with the inflation targeting regime (ITR) since its adoption in June 1999. The theoretical analysis starts by covering the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM) only policy, in which the ITR is the monetary policy recommendation. This discussion is then complemented first by the current debate in the international mainstream on the need for a flexible ITR that considers the effects of monetary policy on the economy and second by the heterodox discussion on the need to completely abandon the ITR. The discussion on the Brazilian experience and its comparison with international experiences show that Brazil is one of the few countries where the monetary policy objective is restricted to price control and where the horizon for returning inflation to the target is only one year. Within this institutional framework, the Brazilian economy under the ITR is marked by the maintenance of extremely high real and nominal interest rates and with difficulties in meeting the inflation targets. The price control obtained also did not generate the expected externalities in terms of economic growth and employment. After almost 20 years of adopting the ITR in Brazil, it has generated exaggerated contractionary pressures on the Brazilian economy, indicating the need for a thorough examination of monetary institutions in Brazil in order to resume economic growth with price stability and social equity.

scholarly journals Regular Econometric Model of Taylor for Albania

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Ergys Misha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Financial Assets

The Taylor’s Rule Central Banks is applying widely today from Central Banks for design the monetary policy and for determination of interest rates. The purpose of this paper is to assess monetary policy rule in Albania, in view of an inflation targeting regime. In the first version of the Model, the Taylor’s Rule assumes that base interest rate of the monetary policy varies depending on the change of (1) the inflation rate and (2) economic growth (Output Gap).Through this paper it is proposed changing the objective of the Bank of Albania by adding a new objective, that of "financial stability", along with the “price stability”. This means that it is necessary to reassess the Taylor’s Rule by modifying it with incorporation of indicators of financial stability. In the case of Albania, we consider that there is no regular market of financial assets in the absence of the Stock Exchange. For this reason, we will rely on the credit developmet - as a way to measure the financial cycle in the economy. In this case, the base rate of monetary policy will be changed throught: (1) Targeting Inflation Rate, (2) Nominal Targeting of Economic Growth, and (3) Targeting the Gap of the Ratio Credit/GDP (mitigating the boom cycle, if the gap is positive, and the contractiocycle if the gap is negative).The research data show that, it is necessary that the Bank of Albania should also include in its objective maintaining the financial stability. In this way, the contribution expected from the inclusion of credit gap indicators in Taylor’s Rule, will be higher and sustainable in time.

scholarly journals Albania's Monetary Policy and the Basic Indicators that Effect the Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Bernard Balla
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Consumer Prices

Macroeconomic policies aim to stabilize the economy by achieving their goal of price stability, full employment and economic growth. Price stability is the responsibility of macroeconomic policies that are developed to maintain a low inflation rate, contribute to the solidity of the domestic product and maintain an exchange rate that can be predictable. The purpose of this paper is to analyze Albania's monetary policy by highlighting the main indicators that can be used as a measurement of the efficiency of this policy in the economic development. The literature review shows that there are many attitudes regarding the factors that need to be taken into consideration when analyzing monetary policies, including the elements of fiscal policies. In the Albanian economy, the prices and the level of inflation are the most important aspects. The Bank of Albania uses the inflation targeting regime, considering that the main indicator of inflationary pressures in the economy is the deviation of inflation forecasted in the medium term by its target level. In numerical terms, the bank intends to maintain its annual growth in consumer prices at the level of 3%. According to the latest reports published by the Bank of Albania in 2019, monetary policy continues to contribute positively to a financial environment with a low interest rate and an annual inflation rate of 2%. Although the inflation rate hit the lowest value of 1.8 % in 2018, a balanced rate was achieved through the reduction of interest rates and risk premiums in financial markets and, more recently, through the tightening of the exchange rate. These monetary conditions are appropriate to support the growth of domestic demand and the strengthening of inflationary pressures.

Macroeconomic Policy in Japan

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warwick J. McKibbin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Japanese Economy ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Fiscal Adjustments ◽  
Inflation Targets

This paper explores the composition of the macroeconomic policy packages that would be effective in stimulating the Japanese economy. An empirical econometric model is used to predict the consequences of a monetary stimulus consisting of an open-market purchase of government bonds by the Bank of Japan combined with the announcement and implementation of inflation targeting in Japan. The paper also compares the impacts of permanent, temporary, and phased fiscal adjustments. The model predicts that monetary policy would be effective in stimulating the Japanese economy through causing a depreciation of the yen. Similarly, a substantial fiscal consolidation in Japan would be only mildly contractionary for the first two years but then would yield substantial long-term benefits to the Japanese economy. Combining a credible fiscal contraction that is phased in over three years with an inflation target would be likely to provide a powerful macroeconomic stimulus to the Japanese economy, through a weaker exchange rate and lower long-term real interest rates, and would sustain higher growth in Japan for a decade. Thus, a switch in the macroeconomic policy mix toward a loose monetary policy (e.g., setting inflation targets between 2 and 3 percent) and a tight fiscal policy is likely to be an important part of a successful package of reforms to raise Japanese productivity growth over the coming years.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (101) ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Isabel Cairó ◽  
◽  
Jae Sim ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Household Sector ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Credit Cycle

The 2008 Global Financial Crisis called into question the narrow focus on price stability of inflation targeting regimes. This paper studies the relationship between price stability and financial stability by analyzing alternative monetary policy regimes for an economy that experiences endogenous financial crises due to excessive household sector leverage. We reach four conclusions. First, a central bank can improve both price stability and financial stability by adopting an aggressive inflation targeting regime, in the absence of the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on nominal interest rates. Second, in the presence of the ZLB constraint, an aggressive inflation targeting regime may undermine both price stability and financial stability. Third, an aggressive price-level targeting regime can improve both price stability and financial stability, regardless of the presence of the ZLB constraint. Finally, a leaning against the wind policy can be detrimental to both price stability and financial stability when the credit cycle is driven by countercyclical household sector leverage. In this environment, leaning with credit spreads can be more effective.

scholarly journals Do Capital Flows Matter for Monetary Policy Setting in Inflation Targeting Economies?

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Trinil Arimurti ◽  
Bruce Morley
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Rule Model ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Policy Setting

The aim of this study is to determine if capital flows can account for the international effects on domestic monetary policy, using an augmented Taylor rule model. In addition to the standard determinants of nominal interest rates, we include capital flow measures to show how central banks consider this important factor when deciding on the most appropriate monetary policy. Using a panel of inflation targeting economies and the dynamic panel approach, this study finds that capital inflows and outflows are an important determinant of nominal interest rates.

Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes

Policy Papers ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Single Digit ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Policy Frameworks ◽  
Inflation Targets

With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.

Is inflation targeting useful for economic growth?

2017 ◽  
pp. 62-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Kartaev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Test Performance ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Growth Regime ◽  
Potential Channels

The paper presents an overview of studies of the effects of inflation targeting on long-term economic growth. We analyze the potential channels of influence, as well as modern empirical studies that test performance of these channels. We compare the effects of different variants of inflation targeting (strict and mixed). Based on the analysis recommendations on the choice of optimal (in terms of stimulating long-term growth) regime of monetary policy in developed and developing economies are formulated.

Perspectives on inflation Targeting Regime in Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 107-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Andryushin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indirect Control ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Private And Public

The paper analyzes monetary policy of the Bank of Russia from 2008 to 2014. It presents the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators testifying to inability of the Bank of Russia to transit to inflation targeting regime. It is shown that the presence of short-term interest rates in the top borders of the percentage corridor does not allow to consider the key rate as a basic tool of monetary policy. The article justifies that stability of domestic prices is impossible with-out exchange rate stability. It is proved that to decrease excessive volatility on national consumer and financial markets it is reasonable to apply a policy of managing financial account, actively using for this purpose direct and indirect control tools for the cross-border flows of the private and public capital.

scholarly journals Economic Growth, Policies and Influencing Factors: The Case of Albania

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Eleni Vangjeli ◽  
Anila Mancka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
The Government ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Monetary and fiscal policies are two policies that the government could use to keep a high level of growth, with a low inflancion. Fiscal policy has its initial impact on the stock market, while monetary policy in market assets. But, given that the goods and active markets are closely interrelated, both policies, monetary as well as fiscal have impact on the economy, increasing the level of product through the reduction of interest rates. In our paper we will show how functioning monetary and fiscal policies. But also in our paper we will analyze the different factors which have affected the economic growth of the country. The focus of our study is the graphical and empirical analysis of economic growth, policies and influencing factors. For the empirical analysis we have used data on the economic growth in Albania for 1996– 2014.

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