scholarly journals FORECASTING INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS IN MALAYSIA USING SARIMA AND HOLT-WINTERS MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (18) ◽  
pp. 41-51
Author(s):  
Norliana Mohd Lip ◽  
Nur Shafiqah Jumery ◽  
Fatin Amira Ahmad Termizi ◽  
Nurul Atiqa Mulyadi ◽  
Norhasnelly Anuar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Tourism Flows

Tourism can be described as the activities of visitors who make a visit to the main destination outside their usual environment for less than a year for any purpose. The tourism industry has become one of the influential sectors in global economic growth. Thus, tourism forecasting plays an important role in public and private sectors concerning future tourism flows. This study is an attempt to determine the best model in forecasting the international tourist's arrival in Malaysia based on Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters model. The comparison of the accuracy of the techniques between Box-Jenkins SARIMA and Holt-Winters model was done based on the value of Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The secondary time series data were obtained from the Tourism Malaysia Department, which consists of a number of tourist arrivals from Singapore, Korea, and the United Kingdom from the year 2013 until the year 2017. The findings of this study suggest that the SARIMA and Holt-Winters model are suitable to be used in forecasting tourist arrivals. This study found that the Holt-Winters model is the appropriate model to forecast tourist arrivals from the United Kingdom (UK) and Korea. While SARIMA (1,1,1) (1,1,1)12 is the appropriate model for forecasting tourist arrivals from Singapore.

scholarly journals Forecasting PM2.5 Concentration Using a Single-Dense Layer BiLSTM Method

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (15) ◽  
pp. 1808
Author(s):  
Aji Teguh Prihatno ◽  
Himawan Nurcahyanto ◽  
Md. Faisal Ahmed ◽  
Md. Habibur Rahman ◽  
Md. Morshed Alam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Dense Layer ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Industrial Grade ◽  
Pm2.5 Concentration

In recent times, particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the most critical air quality contaminants, and the rise of its concentration will intensify the hazard of cleanrooms. The forecasting of the concentration of PM2.5 has great importance to improve the safety of the highly pollutant-sensitive electronic circuits in the factories, especially inside semiconductor industries. In this paper, a Single-Dense Layer Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory (BiLSTM) model is developed to forecast the PM2.5 concentrations in the indoor environment by using the time series data. The real-time data samples of PM2.5 concentrations were obtained by using an industrial-grade sensor based on edge computing. The proposed model provided the best results comparing with the other existing models in terms of mean absolute error, mean square error, root mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error. These results show that the low error of forecasting PM2.5 concentration in a cleanroom in a semiconductor factory using the proposed Single-Dense Layer BiLSTM method is considerably high.

Jaya Spider Monkey Optimization-driven Deep Convolutional LSTM for the prediction of COVID’19

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Chander ◽  
Vijaya Padmanabha ◽  
Joseph Mani
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Spider Monkey ◽  
World Health ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
The World ◽  
Spider Monkey Optimization

AbstractCOVID’19 is an emerging disease and the precise epidemiological profile does not exist in the world. Hence, the COVID’19 outbreak is treated as a Public Health Emergency of the International Concern by the World Health Organization (WHO). Hence, an effective and optimal prediction of COVID’19 mechanism, named Jaya Spider Monkey Optimization-based Deep Convolutional long short-term classifier (JayaSMO-based Deep ConvLSTM) is proposed in this research to predict the rate of confirmed, death, and recovered cases from the time series data. The proposed COVID’19 prediction method uses the COVID’19 data, which is the trending domain of research at the current era of fighting the COVID’19 attacks thereby, to reduce the death toll. However, the proposed JayaSMO algorithm is designed by integrating the Spider Monkey Optimization (SMO) with the Jaya algorithm, respectively. The Deep ConvLSTM classifier facilitates to predict the COVID’19 from the time series data based on the fitness function. Besides, the technical indicators, such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Rate of Change (ROCR), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Williams %R, Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA), and Stochastic %K, are extracted effectively for further processing. Thus, the resulted output of the proposed JayaSMO-based Deep ConvLSTM is employed for COVID’19 prediction. Moreover, the developed model obtained the better performance using the metrics, like Mean Square Error (MSE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by considering confirmed, death, and the recovered cases of COVID’19 for China and Oman. Thus, the proposed JayaSMO-based Deep ConvLSTM showed improved results with a minimal MSE of 1.791, and the minimal RMSE of 1.338 based on confirmed cases in Oman. In addition, the developed model achieved the death cases with the values of 1.609, and 1.268 for MSE and RMSE, whereas the MSE and the RMSE value of 1.945, and 1.394 is achieved by the developed model using recovered cases in China.

scholarly journals Prediksi Kedatangan Turis Asing ke Indonesia Menggunakan Backpropagation Neural Networks

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 485
Author(s):  
Haviluddin Haviluddin ◽  
Zainal Arifin ◽  
Awang Harsa Kridalaksana ◽  
Dedy Cahyadi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Backpropagation Neural Network ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
The Mean

In this paper, a backpropagation neural network (BPNN) method with time series data have been explored. The BPNN method to predict the foreign tourist’s arrival to Indonesia datasets have been implemented. The foreign tourist’s arrival datasets were taken from the center agency on statistics (BPS) Indonesia. The experimental results showed that the BPNN method with two hidden layers were able to forecast foreign tourist’s arrival to Indonesia. Where, the mean square error (MSE) as forecasting accuracy has been indicated. In this study, the BPNN method is able and recommended to be alternative methods for predicting time series datasets. Also, the BPNN method showed that effective and easy to use. In other words, BPNN method is capable to producing good value of forecasting.Keywords - BPNN; foreign tourists; BPS; MSEPemanfaatan backpropagation neural network (BPNN) dengan data deret waktu telah digunakan dalam paper ini. Metode BPNN telah digunakan untuk memprediksi data kedatangan turis asing ke Indonesia, dimana data turis tersebut diambil dari badan pusat statistik Indonesia (BPS). Hasil pengujian menunjukkan bahwa metode BPNN dengan dua lapisan tersembunyi mampu memodelkan dan meramalkan data kedatangan turis asing ke Indonesia yang diindikasikan dengan nilai mean square error (MSE). Penelitian ini merekomendasikan bahwa metode BPNN mampu menjadi alternative metode dalam memprediksi data yang berjenis deret waktu karena metode BPNN efektif dan lebih mudah digunakan serta mampu menghasilkan akurasi nilai peramalan yang baik.

scholarly journals Forecasting Electricity Load With Hybrid Scalable Model Based on Stacked Non Linear Residual Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayush Sinha ◽  
Raghav Tayal ◽  
Aamod Vyas ◽  
Pankaj Pandey ◽  
O. P. Vyas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Non Linear

Power has totally different attributes than other material commodities as electrical energy stockpiling is a costly phenomenon. Since it should be generated when demanded, it is necessary to forecast its demand accurately and efficiently. As electrical load data is represented through time series pattern having linear and non-linear characteristics, it needs a model that may handle this behavior well in advance. This paper presents a scalable and hybrid approach for forecasting the power load based on Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and hybrid deep learning techniques like Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). CNN and LSTM models are well known for handling time series data. The VAR model separates the linear pattern in time series data, and CNN-LSTM is utilized to model non-linear patterns in data. CNN-LSTM works as CNN can extract complex features from electricity data, and LSTM can model temporal information in data. This approach can derive temporal and spatial features of electricity data. The experiment established that the proposed VAR-CNN-LSTM(VACL) hybrid approach forecasts better than more recent deep learning methods like Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), CNN, LSTM, MV-KWNN, MV-ANN, Hybrid CNN-LSTM and statistical techniques like VAR, and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMAX). Performance metrics such as Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, and Mean Absolute Error have been used to evaluate the performance of the discussed approaches. Finally, the efficacy of the proposed model is established through comparative studies with state-of-the-art models on Household Power Consumption Dataset (UCI machine learning repository) and Ontario Electricity Demand dataset (Canada).

Predicting Rice Production using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (04) ◽  
Author(s):  
R C BHARATI ◽  
ANIL KUMAR SINGH
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

A study was conducted on time-series data on rice production in India. Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series process was considered for predicting country's rice production using the time series data from 1950–51 to 2017–18. Data from 1950–51 to 2014–15 were used for model development and three years data from 2015–16 and 2017–18 were kept for validation The augmented Dicky Fuller test was applied to test stationarity in data set. Root mean square error. Based on ACF and PACF, the model was defined and tested for its suitability. Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion were used to judge the suitability of the model to be fitted. The performance of the fitted model was examined using mean absolute error, mean percent forecast error, root mean square error and Theil's inequality coefficients. IMA (0, 1, 1) model performed well for forecasting purposes. The percent prediction error for the last three years i.e. from 2015–16 and 2017–18, was below 3%. The predicted values along with their standard errors up to the year 2099, were also obtained using the model.

scholarly journals Approach to COVID-19 time series data using deep learning and spectral analysis methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Kayode Oshinubi ◽  
◽  
Augustina Amakor ◽  
Olumuyiwa James Peter ◽  
Mustapha Rachdi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Mean Square

<abstract> <p>This article focuses on the application of deep learning and spectral analysis to epidemiology time series data, which has recently piqued the interest of some researchers. The COVID-19 virus is still mutating, particularly the delta and omicron variants, which are known for their high level of contagiousness, but policymakers and governments are resolute in combating the pandemic's spread through a recent massive vaccination campaign of their population. We used extreme machine learning (ELM), multilayer perceptron (MLP), long short-term neural network (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), convolution neural network (CNN) and deep neural network (DNN) methods on time series data from the start of the pandemic in France, Russia, Turkey, India, United states of America (USA), Brazil and United Kingdom (UK) until September 3, 2021 to predict the daily new cases and daily deaths at different waves of the pandemic in countries considered while using root mean square error (RMSE) and relative root mean square error (rRMSE) to measure the performance of these methods. We used the spectral analysis method to convert time (days) to frequency in order to analyze the peaks of frequency and periodicity of the time series data. We also forecasted the future pandemic evolution by using ELM, MLP, and spectral analysis. Moreover, MLP achieved best performance for both daily new cases and deaths based on the evaluation metrics used. Furthermore, we discovered that errors for daily deaths are much lower than those for daily new cases. While the performance of models varies, prediction and forecasting during the period of vaccination and recent cases confirm the pandemic's prevalence level in the countries under consideration. Finally, some of the peaks observed in the time series data correspond with the proven pattern of weekly peaks that is unique to the COVID-19 time series data.</p> </abstract>

Monitoring intercensal migration in the United Kingdom

1994 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 1711-1730
Author(s):  
J C H Stillwell
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
System Expansion ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Central Register ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Over Time

This author demonstrates the utility of the National Health Service Central Register of patient reregistrations for providing continuous information for monitoring changes over time in migration behaviour within the United Kingdom. An information system has been constructed that contains annual time-series data with which to illustrate trends in the volume, composition, and geographical distribution of migration during the 1980s. Issues of data reliability and system expansion are amongst those discussed.

scholarly journals The United Kingdom and Brexit: Implications, Consequences and Opportunities

2018 ◽  
Vol III (II) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Ilhamah Qiamy ◽  
Fahim Nawaz ◽  
Syed Umair Jalal
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Political Decisions

Presently, Brexit and its implications for the United Kingdom (UK), European Union and rest of the world, are regarded as major concerns across the globe. The present study is an attempt to estimate the shock that the UKs economy will likely receive as a consequence of Brexit. It also seeks to find an answer to the question whether costs incurred as a consequence of Brexit are repairable or otherwise for the UK. By applying a vector autoregressive (VAR) model on annual time series data of four important economic variables, i.e. gross domestic product (GDP), imports, exports and foreign direct investment, ranging from 1970-2016, an interdependence relation was found to hold among variables. The result concludes that through Brexit, the UKs economy will face some fluctuations which wont last any longer than 12 to 15 years. In return, it will grant UK sovereignty in the different vital segments of the country like economic policies and political decisions.

Implementasi Metode Winter untuk Forecasting Pertumbuhan Jumlah Penduduk: Studi Kasus Wilayah Provinsi NTB

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61
Author(s):  
Syaharuddin ◽  
Abdul Adhiim Rizky ◽  
Lutfi Jauhari ◽  
Siti Fatimah ◽  
Wahyu Ningsih ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Ratio Data ◽  
Female Data ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Conducting Research ◽  
And Gender

This research aims to analyse the acceleration of population growth based on gender in West Nusa Tenggara Province (NTB) using the Forecasting system by constructing the winter's method in the shape of the Multiple Forecasting System (G-MFS) based on Matlab by calculating the period indicator for accuracy to find time series data in the year 2020-2029. At the simulation stage, researchers used the population and gender ratio data in NTB Province in 2009-2019. The method used in conducting research is to use the winter's method. The evaluation of Forecasting results is done by calculating the average error value using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. From this study obtained the most optimal parameter value on male data namely ʌ, β and γ sequential values of 0.9, 0.5 and 0.9 while in female data, the value of ʌ, β and γ respectively, 0.2, 0.1 and 0.5. Then with the value of the parameter obtained MAPE value in male data of 1.7785% and in female data of 0.89034%.

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