Simulating disease transmission dynamics at a multi-scale level

2007 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moshe B Hoshen ◽  
Anthony H Burton ◽  
Themis J V Bowcock
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Scale Level ◽  
Multi Scale

scholarly journals Controlling multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves: an insight from a multi-scale model linking the behavior change dynamics to the disease transmission dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biao Tang ◽  
Weike Zhou ◽  
Xia Wang ◽  
Hulin Wu ◽  
Yanni Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Behavior Change ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Behavior Changes ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Change Dynamics ◽  
The Game Theory ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
Almost All

AbstractCOVID-19 epidemics exhibited multiple waves regionally and globally since 2020. It is important to understand the insight and underlying mechanisms of the multiple waves of COVID-19 epidemics in order to design more efficient non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination strategies to prevent future waves. We propose a multi-scale model by linking the behavior change dynamics to the disease transmission dynamics to investigate the effect of behavior dynamics on COVID-19 epidemics using the game theory. The proposed multi-scale model was calibrated and key parameters related to disease transmission dynamics and behavioral dynamics with/without vaccination were estimated based on COVID-19 epidemic data and vaccination data. Our modeling results demonstrate that the feedback loop between behavior changes and COVID-19 transmission dynamics plays an essential role in inducing multiple epidemic waves. We find that the long period of high-prevalence or persistent deterioration of COVID-19 epidemics could drive almost all population to change their behaviors and maintain the altered behaviors, however, the effect of behavior changes faded out gradually along the progress of epidemics. This suggests that it is essential not only to have persistent, but also effective behavior changes in order to avoid subsequent epidemic waves. In addition, our model also suggests the importance to maintain the effective altered behaviors during the initial stage of vaccination, and to counteract relaxation of NPIs, it requires quick and massive vaccination to avoid future epidemic waves.

scholarly journals The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudarat Chadsuthi ◽  
Karine Chalvet-Monfray ◽  
Anuwat Wiratsudakul ◽  
Charin Modchang
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Public Education ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Multiplication Rate ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Transmission Models

AbstractThe epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.

scholarly journals Estimasi Reproduction Number Model Matematika Penyebaran Malaria di Sumba Tengah, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Ervin Mawo Banni ◽  
Maria A Kleden ◽  
Maria Lobo ◽  
Meksianis Zadrak Ndii
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Health Center ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Awareness Program ◽  
Awareness Programs ◽  
Malaria Eradication

Malaria is transmitted via a bite of mosquitoes and it is dangerous if it is not properly treated. Mathematical modeling can be formulated to understand the disease transmission dynamics. In this paper, a mathematical model with an awareness program has been formulated and the reproduction number has been estimated against the data from Weeluri Health Center, Mamboro District, Central Sumba. The calculation showed that the reproduction number is R0 = 1.2562. Results showed that if the efficacy of the awareness program is lower than 20%, the reproduction number is still above unity. If the efficacy of the awareness program is higher than 20%, the reproduction number is lower than unity. This implies that the efficacy of awareness programs is the key to the success of Malaria eradication.

scholarly journals Relatedness and genetic structure of big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus) maternity colonies in an urban-wildland interface provides insight into rabies transmission dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faith M. Walker ◽  
Colin J. Sobek ◽  
Camille E. Platts-McPharlin ◽  
Carol L. Chambers
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Structure ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Genetic Relatedness ◽  
Radio Telemetry ◽  
Eptesicus Fuscus ◽  
Geographic Mobility ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Urocyon Cinereoargenteus ◽  
Disease Exposure

AbstractBig brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) are the bat species most frequently found to be rabid in North America and are a key source of sylvatic rabies in wildlife. Females can form summer maternity colonies in urban areas, often using access holes in the exterior of buildings to roost in relatively large numbers. In Flagstaff, Arizona, these roosts are commonly found in houses adjacent to golf courses, where habitat quality (food, water, shelter) is high for bats and for mesocarnivores such as striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) and gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus). Periodic rabies outbreaks in Flagstaff involving all three of these mammals are primarily caused by an E. fuscus variant of the disease. However, little is known about E. fuscus social behavior during the summer months and how it may drive space use and hence disease exposure to conspecifics and mesocarnivores. To address this knowledge gap, we collected 88 unique genetic samples via buccal swabs from E. fuscus captured at four maternity roosts surrounding a golf course during summer of 2013. We used 7 microsatellite loci to estimate genetic relatedness among individuals and genetic structure within and among colonies in order to infer whether females selected roosts based on kinship, and used genetics and radio telemetry to determine the frequency of roost switching. We found roost switching through genetics (two mother and adult daughter pairs at the same and different roosts) and telemetry, and no evidence of elevated genetic relatedness within colonies or genetic structure between colonies. These results have important implications for disease transmission dynamics in that social cohesion based on relatedness does not act to constrain the virus to a particular roost area. Instead, geographic mobility may increase disease exposure to neighboring areas. We discuss mitigating actions for bat conservation and public health.

scholarly journals A consensus S. cerevisiae metabolic model Yeast8 and its ecosystem for comprehensively probing cellular metabolism

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongzhong Lu ◽  
Feiran Li ◽  
Benjamín J. Sánchez ◽  
Zhengming Zhu ◽  
Gang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Organism ◽  
Metabolic Model ◽  
Phenotypic Traits ◽  
Cell Factory ◽  
Scale Level ◽  
Single Nucleotide ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Yeast Strains ◽  
Single Nucleotide Variations ◽  
Genome Scale

Abstract Genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) represent extensive knowledgebases that provide a platform for model simulations and integrative analysis of omics data. This study introduces Yeast8 and an associated ecosystem of models that represent a comprehensive computational resource for performing simulations of the metabolism of Saccharomyces cerevisiae––an important model organism and widely used cell-factory. Yeast8 tracks community development with version control, setting a standard for how GEMs can be continuously updated in a simple and reproducible way. We use Yeast8 to develop the derived models panYeast8 and coreYeast8, which in turn enable the reconstruction of GEMs for 1,011 different yeast strains. Through integration with enzyme constraints (ecYeast8) and protein 3D structures (proYeast8DB), Yeast8 further facilitates the exploration of yeast metabolism at a multi-scale level, enabling prediction of how single nucleotide variations translate to phenotypic traits.

Multi-Scale Analysis of Viscoelastic Behavior of Laminated Composite Structures

2010 ◽  
Vol 430 ◽  
pp. 115-132
Author(s):  
Y. Shibuya ◽  
Hideki Sekine
Keyword(s):  
Viscoelastic Properties ◽  
Composite Structures ◽  
Viscoelastic Behavior ◽  
Laminated Composite ◽  
Scale Analysis ◽  
Scale Level ◽  
Micro Scale ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Laminated Composite Structures ◽  
Multi Scale Analysis

For high temperature applications of laminated composite structures, viscoelastic behavior of laminated composite structures is investigated by multi-scale analysis based on a homogenization theory. Effective viscoelastic properties of the laminas are evaluated by a boundary integral method at a micro-scale level, and viscoelastic analysis for laminated composite structures is performed by a finite element method at a macro-scale level using the effective viscoelastic properties of lamina obtained by the micro-scale analysis. In the multi-scale analysis, the Laplace transformation is adopted and the correspondence principle between elastic and viscoelastic solutions in the Laplace domain is applied. The inverse Laplace transform is formulated by the Duhamel integral, and is calculated numerically. As a numerical example, a laminated composite plate with a hole is treated and the viscoelastic behavior of the laminated composite structure is elucidated.

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