scholarly journals Evaluating Donald Trump Administration’s Policy toward Denuclearization of North Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 3-38
Author(s):  
송승종
Keyword(s):  
2018 ◽  
Vol 117 (800) ◽  
pp. 241-243
Author(s):  
Bruce Cumings
Keyword(s):  

For all his bluster, Donald Trump may have recognized what US strategy long refused to acknowledge: North Korea is ready to discuss denuclearization in exchange for recognition and respect.


2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 293-311
Author(s):  
Sang-Jin Han

This dialogue addresses the global risk that broke out of the North Korean development of nuclear weapons and missiles. It starts from the brutal consequences of the national division for Korea and asks why North Korea has been so preoccupied with nuclear projects as has been found to be the case since the 1990s, and how much and why Kim Jung-un today differs from his father in terms of his future, and where the fundamental limit lies in Moon Jae-In’s as well as Trump’s approaches to Korean denuclearization and peace. The highlight of this dialogue is to explain the intrinsic difficulties for Donald Trump and Kim Jung-un in finding a reasonable solution to their respective demands for denuclearization and regime security, and explore the likely future of the Korean Peninsula from the vantage point of Kim Dae-jung’s Sunshine Policy and metamorphosis.


Significance President Donald Trump said he dismissed Tillerson as he wants his cabinet to be more in line with his thinking; Trump and Tillerson had clashed over policies and priorities. CIA Director Mike Pompeo will be nominated to succeed Tillerson. The nominee to replace Pompeo at the CIA will be current CIA Deputy Director Gina Haspel. Impacts A better-coordinated foreign policy team could help Trump prepare for his new push on North Korea-US ties. Pompeo may find as secretary of state that he disagrees more openly with Trump; the CIA director is not public-facing. Conceivably, the 2018 midterm elections could further delay Trump nominees, but secretaries could work in an acting capacity.


Subject US trade policy. Significance During his election campaign, Donald Trump slammed decades of US policy and pledged to secure better trade deals, putting 'America First'. Upon taking office, Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but six months on, his trade agenda remains disjointed. Impacts Trump could use executive powers in a more sweeping fashion if he cannot deliver trade changes via legislation. Washington will expand secondary trade sanctions on firms and people that deal with North Korea, most of which are Chinese. Securing 'big-ticket' export deals will be a means for Trump to deliver manufacturing jobs to his political heartland. US opposition to funding and reforms of international financial institutions could reduce the momentum behind global cooperation.


Subject Politics in South Korea. Significance President Moon Jae-in has hailed the second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump due to be held in Hanoi on February 27-28 as a “remarkable breakthrough” for peace on the Korean peninsula. Moon hopes the meeting will lead to an easing of sanctions on Pyongyang, enabling inter-Korean cooperation such as the relinking of roads and railways to progress, and that this will boost his waning popularity. Impacts US pressure on Seoul to pay more for US troops in South Korea may stoke anti-US sentiment. Rising tensions with Japan will ultimately cause problems for both countries, and their currently indifferent US ally. Pinning hopes on the unpredictable Kim and Trump is risky; failure with North Korea would galvanise the conservatives.


Subject Prospects for North Korea in 2019. Significance The peace process that has unfolded on the peninsula in 2018 is now in trouble, perhaps at an impasse. Despite talk of a second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump early next year -- it was expected sooner -- preparations for it have stalled.


Significance Japan is viewed by ASEAN states as the most constructive player among the major powers. China is seen as aggressive and the United States as unreliable under President Donald Trump. Impacts Suga is unlikely to remain in office for more than a year. Post-pandemic economic recovery in Japan will be slow due to weak demand for its manufactured goods at home and abroad. China’s stance over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and the missile threat from North Korea will be Tokyo’s top security concerns.


Subject The outlook for North Korea-US denuclearisation talks. Significance On June 30, President Donald Trump used a long-planned trip to South Korea after the G20 summit in Osaka to visit the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ), for his third meeting in barely a year with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Impacts Working talks will resume, but progress may depend on Pyongyang gaining partial sanctions relief. Inter-Korean relations will likely remain stalled unless sanctions are eased. The peninsula has not become risk-free; Kim may miscalculate or hardliners could push for policies even Trump cannot accept. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seeks his own summit with Kim; Kim has scant incentive to grant one.


Subject North Korea's foreign relations. Significance China’s President Xi Jinping visited Pyongyang on June 20-21, ahead of the G20 summit in Osaka where he will meet his US counterpart Donald Trump. Trump is then due in Seoul on June 29-30 to meet President Moon Jae-in. Reports that Trump may visit Panmunjom in the inter-Korean Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) have sparked speculation of steps to revive nuclear diplomacy, possibly even including an unannounced third summit with Kim. Impacts North Korea will be Trump’s main agenda item in Seoul, so some initiative seems likely. South Korea risks being sidelined if nuclear diplomacy resumes, with China perhaps taking the intermediary role. If Trump and Kim meet at Panmunjom, that would boost Moon’s position; the more so if he joins them.


Asian Survey ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sung Deuk Hahm

The two biggest stories of 2019 in South Korea were a series of meetings between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to discuss the denuclearization of North Korea in the first half of the year, and the trade war with Japan in the second half. President Moon Jae-in’s income-led growth policies still have not stimulated the economy. In fact, South Korea’s macroeconomic performance was virtually at a standstill; the economic growth rate in 2019 has stayed below 2.0%, showing no sign of turnaround.


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