scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological, Hydrological, and Agricultural Droughts in the Lake Titicaca Basin

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 175
Author(s):  
Ricardo Zubieta ◽  
Jorge Molina-Carpio ◽  
Wilber Laqui ◽  
Juan Sulca ◽  
Mercy Ilbay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Lake Titicaca ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrological Droughts

The impact of climate change on droughts in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopo basins (TDPS system) within the Altiplano region was evaluated by comparing projected 2034–2064 and observed 1984–2014 hydroclimate time series. The study used bias-corrected monthly climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts were analyzed from the standardized precipitation, standardized soil moisture, and standardized runoff indices, respectively, the latter two estimated from a hydrological model. Under scenarios of mean temperature increases up to 3 °C and spatially diverse precipitation changes, our results indicate that meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts will become more intense, frequent, and prolonged in most of the TDPS. A significant increase in the frequency of short-term agricultural and hydrological droughts (duration of 1–2 months) is also projected. The expected decline in annual rainfall and the larger evapotranspiration increase in the southern TDPS combine to yield larger projected rises in the frequency and intensity of agricultural and hydrological droughts in this region.

scholarly journals Bias-corrected climate projections for South Asia from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vimal Mishra ◽  
Udit Bhatia ◽  
Amar Deep Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
South Asia ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Climate change is likely to pose enormous challenges for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and livelihood of millions of people living in South Asia. Here, we develop daily bias-corrected data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures at 0.25° spatial resolution for South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka) and 18 river basins located in the Indian sub-continent. The bias-corrected dataset is developed using Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) for the historic (1951–2014) and projected (2015–2100) climate for the four scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) using output from 13 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6). The bias-corrected dataset was evaluated against the observations for both mean and extremes of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures. Bias corrected projections from 13 CMIP6-GCMs project a warmer (3–5°C) and wetter (13–30%) climate in South Asia in the 21st century. The bias-corrected projections from CMIP6-GCMs can be used for climate change impact assessment in South Asia and hydrologic impact assessment in the sub-continental river basins.

scholarly journals Machine dependence and reproducibility for coupled climate simulations: the HadGEM3-GC3.1 CMIP Preindustrial simulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria-Vittoria Guarino ◽  
Louise C. Sime ◽  
David Schroeder ◽  
Grenville M. S. Lister ◽  
Rosalyn Hatcher
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Mip Model ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. When the same weather or climate simulation is run on different high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, model outputs may not be identical for a given initial condition. While the role of HPC platforms in delivering better climate projections is to some extent discussed in the literature, attention is mainly focused on scalability and performance rather than on the impact of machine-dependent processes on the numerical solution. Here we investigate the behaviour of the Preindustrial (PI) simulation prepared by the UK Met Office for the forthcoming CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) under different computing environments. Discrepancies between the means of key climate variables were analysed at different timescales, from decadal to centennial. We found that for the two simulations to be statistically indistinguishable, a 200-year averaging period must be used for the analysis of the results. Thus, constant-forcing climate simulations using the HadGEM3-GC3.1 model are reproducible on different HPC platforms provided that a sufficiently long duration of simulation is used. In regions where El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection patterns were detected, we found large sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration differences on centennial timescales. This indicates that a 100-year constant-forcing climate simulation may not be long enough to adequately capture the internal variability of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 model, despite this being the minimum simulation length recommended by CMIP6 protocols for many MIP (Model Intercomparison Project) experiments. On the basis of our findings, we recommend a minimum simulation length of 200 years whenever possible.

scholarly journals The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
pp. e1501452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miodrag Stevanović ◽  
Alexander Popp ◽  
Hermann Lotze-Campen ◽  
Jan Philipp Dietrich ◽  
Christoph Müller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Consumer Surplus ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Compensation Mechanisms ◽  
The Impact

Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered.

Ecosystem-based adaptation in marine ecosystems of tropical Oceania in response to climate change.

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 241 ◽  
Author(s):  
H S Grantham ◽  
E McLeod ◽  
A Brooks ◽  
S D Jupiter ◽  
J Hardcastle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Great Opportunity ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Decadal Variations

Tropical Oceania, including Melanesia, Polynesia, Micronesia and northern Australia, is one of the most biodiverse regions of the world. Climate change impacts have already occurred in the region and will become one of the greatest threats to biodiversity and people. Climate projections indicate that sea levels will rise in many places but not uniformly. Islands will warm and annual rainfall will increase and exhibit strong decadal variations. Increases in global atmospheric CO2 concentration are causing ocean acidification, compromising the ability of organisms such as corals to maintain their calcium carbonate skeletons. We discuss these climate threats and their implications for the biodiversity of several ecosystems (coral reefs, seagrass and mangroves) in the region. We highlight current adaptation approaches designed to address these threats, including efforts to integrate ecosystem and community-based approaches. Finally, we identify guiding principles for developing effective ecosystem-based adaptation strategies. Despite broad differences in governance and social systems within the region, particularly between Australia and the rest of the Pacific, threats and planning objectives are similar. Ensuring community awareness and participation are essential everywhere. The science underpinning ecosystem-based adaptation strategies is in its infancy but there is great opportunity for communicating approaches and lessons learnt between developing and developed nations in tropical Oceania.

scholarly journals A large-sample investigation into uncertain climate change impacts on high flows across Great Britain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosanna Lane ◽  
Gemma Coxon ◽  
Jim Freer ◽  
Jan Seibert ◽  
Thorsten Wagener
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Parameter Uncertainties ◽  
High Flows ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change may significantly increase flood risk across Great Britain (GB), but there are large uncertainties in both future climatic changes and how these propagate into changing river flows. Here, the impact of climate change on the magnitude and frequency of high flows is modelled for 346 larger (> 144 km2) catchments across GB using the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) and the DECIPHeR hydrological modelling framework. This study provides the first spatially consistent GB projections including both climate ensembles and hydrological model parameter uncertainties. Generally, results indicated an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high flows (Q10, Q1 and annual maximum) along the west coast of GB in the future (2050–2075), with increases in annual maximum flows of up to 65 % for west Scotland. In contrast, median flows (Q50) were projected to decrease across GB. All flow projections contained large uncertainties, and while the RCMs were the largest source of uncertainty overall, hydrological modelling uncertainties were considerable in east and south-east England. Regional variation in flow projections were found to relate to i) differences in climatic change and ii) catchment conditions during the baseline period as characterised by the runoff coefficient (mean discharge divided by mean precipitation). Importantly, increased heavy-precipitation events (defined by an increase in 99th percentile precipitation) did not always result in increased flood flows for catchments with low runoff coefficients, highlighting the varying factors leading to changes in high flows. These results provide a national overview of climate change impacts on high flows across GB, which will inform climate change adaptation, while also highlighting the need to account for uncertainty sources when modelling climate change impact on high flows.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on wintertime European atmospheric blocking

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Bacer ◽  
Fatima Jomaa ◽  
Julien Beaumet ◽  
Hubert Gallée ◽  
Enzo Le Bouëdec ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Type Decomposition

Abstract. We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe focusing on the frequency, duration, and extension of blocking events. These events are identified via the weather type decomposition (WTD) methodology applied on the output of climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Historical simulations as well as two future scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, are considered. The models are evaluated against the reanalysis and only a subset of climate models, which better represent the blocking weather regime in the recent-past climate, is considered for the analysis. We find that frequency and duration of blocking events remain relatively stationary over the 21st century. In order to quantify the extension of blocking events, we define a new methodology which relies on the WTD to identify blocking events. We show that the results are in agreement with previous studies that define blocking events with blocking indexes. We find that blocking extension will increase, especially in the worst-case scenario, due to a pressure increase driven by a thermodynamical warming during blocking events rather than atmospheric circulation changes.

scholarly journals Assessment of the climate change impacts on the water resources of the Luni region, India

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-40 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Moisture Deficit ◽  
Hydro Climatology ◽  
The Impact

<div> <p>Climate change is expected to have a strong impact on water resources at the local, regional and global scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the Luni region, India, is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The use of different scenarios allows for the estimation of uncertainty of future impacts. The projections are based on the CORDEX-South Asia framework and are bias-corrected using the DBS method before being entered into the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) hydrological model to generate predictions of runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit, and applied irrigation water to soil. Overall, the high uncertainty in the climate projections is propagated in the impact model, and as a result the spatiotemporal distribution of change is subject to the climate change scenario. In general, for all scenarios, results show a -20 to +20% change in the long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration, whereas more pronounced impacts are expected for runoff (-40 to +40% change). Climate change can also affect other hydro-climatic components, however, at a lower impact. Finally, the flow dynamics in the Luni River are substantially affected in terms of shape and magnitude.</p> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p>

scholarly journals CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCE SUSTAINABILITY INDEX FOR A WATER-STRESSED BASIN IN BRAZIL: THE CASE STUDY OF RIO VERDE GRANDE BASIN

Nativa ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 480
Author(s):  
Mônica Carvalho de Sá ◽  
Edson De Oliveira Vieira ◽  
Flavia Mazzer Rodrigues ◽  
Lorrana Cavalcanti Albuquerque ◽  
Núbia Ribeiro Caldeira
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS E A SUSTENTABILIDADES DOS RECURSOS HÍDRICOS EM BACIA HIDROGRÁFICA COM ESCASSEZ HÍDRICA NO BRASIL: O CASO DA BACIA DE RIO VERDE GRANDE A bacia de Rio Verde Grande está localizada 87% na parte norte do estado de Minas Gerais e 13% no estado da Bahia, em uma região com clima semiárido, apresentando longos e intensos períodos de seca. Esta característica climática afeta diretamente a disponibilidade de recursos hídricos e, conseqüentemente, o desenvolvimento das principais atividades da região que são pecuária e agricultura irrigada. Não há estudos que avaliem o efeito das mudanças climáticas na disponibilidade de água e na sustentabilidade de atividades com alta demanda de água na bacia de Rio Verde Grande. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar as mudanças prováveis na disponibilidade de água na bacia de Rio Verde Grande e a sustentabilidade dos recursos hídricos para as atividades usuárias de água, utilizando séries sintéticas geradas através de programas de modelagem climática e hidrológica. Este estudo realizou as projeções climáticas utilizando os Global Climate Models do Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Com base nos cálculos dos índices de sustentabilidade e na comparação dos cenários atuais e futuros, observou-se que, mesmo com todas as intervenções propostas pelo Plano de Recursos Hídricos da Bacia Rio Verde Grande implementadas, houve uma redução na sustentabilidade da água Recursos em algumas sub-bacias devido à mudança climática.Palavras-chave: CMIP5, modelo WEAP, vulnerabilidade ABSTRACT: The Rio Verde Grande basin is a water-stressed basin, which is 87% in the northern part of Minas Gerais and 13% in Bahia, Brazil. It has a semi-arid climate with long and intense periods of drought. This climatic directly affects the availability of water resources and the development of the main activities in the region. There are presently no studies that evaluate the effect of climate change on the availability of water in the Rio Verde Grande basin and the sustainability of high water demand activities. The objective of this study was to analyze future changes in the availability of water in the Rio Verde Grande basin, and the sustainability of water for the major water users. This was done using a synthetic series generated through climatic and hydrological modeling programs. This study performed climate projections using the Global Climate Models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The calculation of sustainability indexes and a comparison between current and future scenarios, it was observed that even if all the interventions proposed by the Water Resources Plan of the Rio Verde Grande basin are implemented, there will still be a reduction in the sustainability of water resources in some sub-basins, due to climate change.Keywords: CMIP5, WEAP model, vulnerability.

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals Amplified Impact of Climate Change on Fine-Sediment Delivery to a Subsiding Coast, Humboldt Bay, California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. Curtis ◽  
Lorraine E. Flint ◽  
Michelle A. Stern ◽  
Jack Lewis ◽  
Randy D. Klein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Sediment Delivery ◽  
Beneficial Reuse ◽  
Coastal Margin

AbstractIn Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsidence and SLR must be balanced by an adequate sediment supply. This study used an ensemble of plausible future scenarios to predict potential climate change impacts on suspended-sediment discharge (Qss) from fluvial sources. Streamflow was simulated using a deterministic water-balance model, and Qss was computed using statistical sediment-transport models. Changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2010) were used to assess climate impacts. For local basins that discharge directly to the bay, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 27% for the mid-century (2040–2069) and 58% for the end-of-century (2070–2099). For the Eel River, a regional sediment source that discharges sediment-laden plumes to the coastal margin, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 53% for the mid-century and 99% for the end-of-century. Climate projections of increased precipitation and streamflow produced amplified increases in the regional sediment supply that may partially or wholly mitigate sediment demand caused by the combined effects of subsidence and SLR. This finding has important implications for coastal resiliency. Coastal regions with an increasing sediment supply may be more resilient to SLR. In a broader context, an increasing sediment supply from fluvial sources has global relevance for communities threatened by SLR that are increasingly building resiliency to SLR using sediment-based solutions that include regional sediment management, beneficial reuse strategies, and marsh restoration.

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